by Amir Mizroch
In intelligence briefing at Herzliya Conference, IDF Military Intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi says Iran producing enough enriched uranium for five or six bombs, should it make decision to arm • Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt — are all led by religious leadership who view Israel as unwelcome element.
A rebel fighter retreats for cover as enemy fire targets the rebel
position during clashes at the Moaskar front line, one of the
battlefields in the Karmal Jabl neighborhood of Aleppo in October 2012.
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IDF Military Intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Aviv
Kochavi on Thursday presented a grim picture of Israel's strategic
surroundings, saying that four of the Middle East's superpowers — Iran,
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt — were all led by religious leadership
whose fundamental view of Israel is one of a "foreign, unwelcome
element" and who increasingly see the world through religious lenses.
The practical significance of this in the
coming years will be an increasing difficulty in creating agreements and
normalizing ties between Israel and its neighbors, Kochavi said. "The
Middle East looks completely different. Bottom line: Syria is crumbling,
so are regional borders, infrastructure, and government institutions."
Furthermore, Israel now faces a new situation
in which four of its borders — Lebanon, Golan, Gaza, and Sinai — are
infested with terrorist activity, which could ignite a regional
conflagration, either through terror attacks, Israeli retaliation or
preemption, or both.
Speaking at the 13th annual Herzliya
Conference at the IDC Herzliya, Kochavi said that Military Intelligence
is seeing signs of a "second round of uprisings" in the Middle East as
the populations of Egypt, Tunisia, and other countries see that
"political Islam is not providing the goods." While the Muslim
Brotherhood is working earnestly to cement its political gains across
the region, it is also being challenged by grim economic realities, as
well as more radical Islamic forces, Kochavi said.
Despite its importance and interest in and of
itself, Kochavi's briefing is significant as it is the assessment of the
Israeli intelligence community on the eve of the establishment of a new
government in Israel. The information contained in the assessment, as
well as its recommendations, will be made available to the political
echelon, who will use some of it as the basis of their policies.
Kochavi said that together with an increase in
social and financial instability, a backlash against political Islam,
and an increasing radicalism, new conditions are emerging in the Middle
East that make the region extremely unstable, unpredictable, and
insecure. There are now more porous borders in the region through which
jihadists and weapons flow much more freely. Kochavi said that the old
characterization of moderates versus extremists in the Middle East was
no longer valid, and that the battle now was between the two streams of
Islam, Sunni and Shi'ite. Sunni Hamas in Gaza, for instance, is moving
away from Shiite Iran and closer to Sunni Turkey, Egypt and Qatar,
Kochavi said.
"This will make any resolution to the
Israeli-Arab conflict in the coming years much more complex to achieve,"
he said. Accordingly, Kochavi "suggests that no major decisions are
made which are based on the current transient, shifting moods." He would
not say if he was referring to renewed peace talks between Israel and
the Palestinian Authority, but Kochavi did say that PA President Mahmoud
Abbas was currently in a holding pattern, waiting to see the posture of
the new Obama administration's Middle East policy, as well as the
makeup of the new Israeli government. "Right now, Abbas is just trying
to close out the month and pay salaries to his people," Kochavi said.
"There are deep, fundamental changes occurring
in the Middle East, with countries that are disintegrating from the
inside. The common denominator is instability and uncertainty. I do not
suggest making decisions based on shifting moods; things are changing
fundamentally and rapidly.
"Israel has four active borders for the first
time in decades. This is a new reality; terror activity can happen from
Lebanon, Sinai, Golan, and Gaza. The fifth border, attacks against
Israelis abroad, is also heating up. We are seeing activity on all these
fronts," Kochavi said.
"We're seeing signs of a second wave of
uprisings coming in Egypt, Tunisia and other areas," he said. "Citizens
seeing that Islam is not providing the goods."
"Economically speaking, looking around the
Middle East countries, the picture looks grim indeed: over 30% rate of
poverty in countries surrounding us, water crisis, energy crisis, and
most countries import some 80% of their wheat — add to this the global
financial crisis and we have an engine for more instability and
uprisings."
"Many of these countries are heading to the
classification of failed states. These failed states are becoming more
Islamic, and are struggling to keep control over large bordering
territories, and even further from Israel's borders like in Libya and
Sudan."
"Sudan has become a transit country and
platform for Iranian agents, weapons, and interests through the air,
ground and sea. The Sudanese government has found a partner in the
Iranian leadership," Kochavi said.
He added that while Israel is not currently
the center of attention for the countries it borders, jihadists fighting
in these areas "have already said that once they're done with their
local agendas they will turn to deal with Israel — in Sinai this is
already happening in great earnest. This is changing the Middle East
drastically."
Kochavi said that Iran was progressing
steadily on its nuclear weapons program, and aiming to reach breakout
phase, where it has all the elements it needs to make nuclear weapons
and can do so very quickly, within a matter of months, should the
Iranian leadership make a decision to do so.
The Iranian leadership "may make partial
concessions but will not compromise on fundamental issues," Kochavi
said, despite the fact that international sanctions are having a
"significant effect" on Iran's economy and population.
"Sanctions are affecting Iran in a most
significant way: Their banking and financial sectors, their energy
sector, their metals sector — there is huge pressure on the leadership
and the population. Inflation is close to 50%. Their annual oil revenues
have plunged from 99 billion dollars to 55 billion dollars. There is an
increase in criticism from within the government and the population
because of the sanctions. The survivability of the regime is now
becoming its central focus. It hasn't stopped them yet but it is
becoming an increasing factor," Kochavi said.
Iran will not compromise in its nuclear talks
with the West, Kochavi said, as it does not see a high chance of an
international military attack on its nuclear facilities.
"Iran nuclear weapons program is progressing
slower than they would like, but progressing nonetheless. They are
careful not to cross Israel and the world's red lines, as their main
overriding aim is the survival of the regime," Kochavi said.
The intelligence chief revealed that Iran was
enriching 14 kg (33 lbs.) of uranium per month, an amount that would be
enough for five or six bombs if the Iranian supreme leader decides to
take the decision to make the bombs, "which he hasn't yet."
Iran is also advancing on its plutonium track,
hiding it from the International Atomic Energy Agency; and through
subterfuge, hopes to have it ready within two years. "Iran is still
playing for time in diplomatic negotiations, but they will absolutely
not compromise on fundamental issues," Kochavi said.
He added that there were some voices within
Iranian leadership saying that it was time to think about making a deal
with the West.
Iran, Kochavi said, was focusing on three
strategic areas: Saving Syria, developing its nuclear program, and
inserting Iranian forces throughout the Middle East.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria
would be a strategic blow to Iran and Hezbollah, Kochavi said, but added
that anyone who thinks that Iran and Hezbollah will leave Syria once
Assad falls is sorely mistaken. Kochavi said Iran and Hezbollah were
working actively to prolong Assad's rule — providing him with fighters,
instructors, intelligence and financial support — but are also planning
for the day after Assad falls by creating a "popular militia" that they
hope will number some 100,000 men.
"Iran and Hezbollah are giving Assad strategic
and operational help, with people on the ground, giving intelligence
assistance, as well as financial aid. Hezbollah has fighters on the
ground, and Hezbollah, Syria and Iran are creating a "people's army" in
Syria currently numbering 50,000 men deployed across Syria alongside the
Syrian army. The aim is to have some 100,000 men under arms in this
'people's army,'" he said. "The army will be funded by Iran, trained by
Hezbollah, and manned by Syrians. This way Iran and Hezbollah are
preparing for the day after Assad, to keep their interest in Syria, on
their weapons, their people, their territories. Iran and Hezbollah will
not leave Syria after Assad goes."
"Before the uprising against Assad began, the
Syrian army had 380,000 regular troops. Some 13,000 have now been
killed, 40,000 have deserted, tens of thousands have been wounded,
morale is very low, combat readiness is very low and so are their
supplies. Most of the heavy lifting is done by 4th Division, which is
made up mostly of Alawites. But even here there are cracks," Kochavi
said.
Kochavi also said that Assad "is making
advanced preparations to make use of chemical weapons against his
adversaries. But he has not given the order to use these weapons yet."
"In terms of governance we should refer to
Syria not as a whole, but talk about it as the State of Assad and the
State of the rebels. It could even be said that most of the populated
areas in Syria are in the hands of the rebels," Kochavi said.
Amir Mizroch
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=7987
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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