by Boaz Bismuth
U.S. President Barack
Obama admitted over the weekend that the Assad regime had used chemical
weapons, calling this a "game changer." He added, however, that "we have
to act prudently. We have to make these assessments deliberately."
Obama is in no hurry to go to war.
Obama has plenty of
reasons to be cautious. First, by helping the rebels, the U.S. could in
fact end up helping al-Qaida jihadists who want to establish a Sunni
emirate in Syria and Iraq. Second, memories of the war in Iraq are still
planted firmly in American minds. If the U.S. is going to go to war
again over weapons of mass destruction, there had better be clear
evidence this time. And third, Obama is a president who ends wars (Iraq
and Afghanistan), not one who starts them.
Obama and his advisers
are completely entitled to raise the Iraq precedent to justify delaying a
decision on Syria. The American public will accept this, even though
there is increasing domestic pressure on Obama to act in Syria.
But the scenario today
is different from what it was in 2003. At that time, the administration
of then-President George W. Bush was looking for any possible excuse to
go to war in Iraq, even without a smoking gun. Today, the situation is
the exact opposite. While the U.S. government did confirm reports that
came in from Britain, France and Israel about Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad's use of chemical weapons (on Dec. 23 in Homs and in mid-March
in the Damascus suburbs), it is choosing to play down the story at the
moment, for obvious reasons.
Obama said last August
that the use of chemical weapons in Syria was a red line for him. Obama
could now point to Assad's chemical weapons use as justification for the
launch of a military campaign, or he could instead view the chemical
weapons use as a localized military tactic adopted by Assad's forces in
their fight against the rebels, and not intervene.
Meanwhile, the Assad
regime and Iran are testing Washington and the international community.
Assad has understood for some time that the West is not enthusiastic
about war. British Prime Minister David Cameron stated this explicitly
in a BBC interview on Friday. Assad also has the support of the Russian
government, which doesn't believe in shedding tears, even after chemical
weapons use. The Assad regime continues to escalate the means it uses
to suppress the rebellion that broke out in mid-March 2011. Torture and
rifles have progressed to Scud missiles and now chemical weapons.
On March 25, the Fox
News network reported that American special forces soldiers were
training Syrian rebels in northern Jordan. That same report said France
was set to give U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry information on
chemical weapons use in Syria. One can assume that Obama discussed the
military option with Jordan's King Abdullah during their meeting in
Washington on Friday. All indicators show that Obama is readying for
war, even if he doesn't want one.
Boaz Bismuth
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=4141
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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