Assad's New Bodyguards

by Dr. Reuven Berko

The elite forces protecting Bashar Assad's regime no longer contain his Alawite faithful but thousands of Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah fighters who are making tactical inroads against the rebels. The new arrangement could drag the entire Middle East into a Sunni-Shiite war.

Supporters of Syrian President Bashar Assad | Photo credit: Reuters

Lebanese military forces

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Photo credit: Reuters

The latest developments in the civil war raging around Damascus have created a new set of circumstances. Most notably, the elements comprising the fighting force that is waging battle for the Assad regime's survival are not even Syrian. Hezbollah, a Lebanese organization that is supported by Iran, is now protecting the Syrian tyrant. The local forces are no longer of central importance. The Alawites have ceased to be the most crucial factor in the conflict. 

What set off the religious conflagration in Syria between Sunnis and Shiites was a singularly symbolic, dramatic act that stood out above all the other atrocities perpetrated by the Syrian Alawite regime and its Shiite allies from Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon. Hezbollah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard fighters began to move into the country en masse from Iraq, entering ravaged towns and villages. In full view of the hemorrhaging citizens of Syria, they arrogantly and demonstratively planted the flag of the Shiite hidden imam Ali Al-Hussein atop the turrets of Sunni mosques while chanting "Allahu akbar!" 

Who is this Hussein whose image is emblazoned on the black flags? Why is its display considered a provocation? Hassan and Hussein were the sons of Ali ibn Ali Talib, the cousin and son-in-law of the Prophet Mohammed. The deaths of Ali, the fourth caliph of the Islamic nation, and his sons, mark a tragic breaking point in relations between the "persecuted" followers of Ali and his descendants, otherwise known as Shiites, and the Sunni Islamic mainstream.

A centuries-old incident prompted Shiites to reject Mohammed and his friends, the "Sahabah," the traditions which they espoused, and the legitimacy they claimed for anything that later transpired in Islam. They felt that Ali and his sons were victims of injustice. For their part, the Sunnis look at Shiites as infidels whose deviation from the main path is more heinous and criminal than those of non-Muslims. 

In dealing with Shiites, the Sunnis resort to the legal practice of "takfir" (declaring another Muslim an unbeliever). In doing so, they label Shiites with the status of "murtadun" (apostates), an offense more serious than being an infidel since apostasy is the renouncing of the one true Islamic path by those who were previously followers. Despite repeated reconciliation attempts and the fact that Shia and Sunni Islam are both predicated on the mission undertaken by the Prophet Mohammed, these two religious streams are different from and hostile to one another. This is the origin of all the turmoil. 

The Iranian plan

Even before the Shiite flags were victoriously planted on the ruins of Sunni mosques in Syria, the bloody conflict pitting Syria's Alawite ruler (whose ethnic group is an offshoot of Shia Islam) against his predominantly Sunni people became an intra-religious battle during which 100,000 civilians have been slaughtered by the regime. 

From the Iranian point of view, this war came at the most inopportune time since it ruined their strategic timetable. As the intensity of the fighting escalated, Syrian army officers deserted and joined the ranks of the Free Syrian Army. Some secular citizens took up arms. This cadre of fighters was joined by armed elements from the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, the same organization that staged a rebellion against Hafez Assad in 1982. During the course of that mutiny, they lost 30,000 of their members in the government-sanctioned massacres in Hama and Homs. 

Throughout the course of the fighting, the rebels received assistance from extremist Salafi forces affiliated with al-Qaida, who came from all corners of the Arab world to assist in the cause. This armed opposition began to make tactical inroads in the war, but they were soon bogged down by internecine strife, disagreement, and an inability to coordinate positions and form a united front. The embattled Assad intensified his butchery against the civilian population, deploying fighter planes and artillery to shell Sunni towns. 

In light of the rebel successes and Assad's increasing vulnerability, Iran's ambitions to solidify its grip on the strategically vital "Shiite Crescent" that stretches from Iraq, traverses Syria, and ends in Lebanon were suddenly placed in grave danger. As Tehran well knows, the Assad regime is a critical link in the chain. 

An Iranian-dominated northern axis was supposed to be the springboard to Tehran's consolidation of hegemony over the Arab states in the Persian Gulf. At the same time, it would halt Turkish intervention from the north. Given their military inferiority, the Iranians apparently sought to deter American forces in the Gulf from intervening on behalf of their Arab allies in the Gulf by brandishing the threat of a nuclear bomb.

At the same time, the Iranians activated their terrorist surrogates in Arab countries in order to sow chaos and sabotage to the point where these countries would be paralyzed from within. They made strenuous efforts to create an Iranian bridgehead on the Gulf island of Abu Musa, which they see as a launch point to the takeover of Bahrain and the rest of the Arabian Peninsula. 

The pieces of this regional puzzle will fall into place seamlessly. The Iranians are shrewd enough to deflect Arab rage away from them and toward Israel, all the while justifying their nuclear ambitions as a bid to liberate Palestine and Jerusalem from the Jews, the mob's favorite common denominator. This enabled the Iranians to lull the Arabs to sleep. The ruse would have succeeded completely were it not for the crisis that erupted in Syria. 

Thus far the Iranians have managed to keep the Americans, who have been weakened by the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, at bay. Iranian audacity also grew further thanks to American weakness in the face of the brazen North Korean regime, as well as Washington's hesitation in confronting the Iranian atomic bomb. The American silence in the face of the ongoing massacre in Syria seems to confirm Iranian assessments that they are dealing with nothing more than a paper tiger.

As a continuation of this crafty policy, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei engineered the election victory of the "pragmatic" Hassan Rohani as president. Whoever thought that Rohani's victory was an elegant, Iranian way for the ayatollahs to save face and "fold up the tent" was wrong. The Iranians did not plow through the ups and downs of developing the bomb, the loss of scientists, the damaging blows and the sanctions that have been imposed on the public just to halt their nuclear program in order to boost the new president-elect with the neatly trimmed beard and Western-style bifocals, Dr. Rohani. 

Indeed, in light of Rohani's initial declarations stating that Iran would continue to enrich uranium, it seems that he will likely continue to maneuver diplomatically by demanding an easing of sanctions as a condition for negotiations with the West over the nuclear program. In the continuum, however, Iran would keep dragging its feet until it completed its grand project. As such, it is incumbent on the Americans to demand that Rohani immediately dismantle the nuclear program before starting talks on sanctions. 

The cold war

With its active involvement in the Syrian morass, Iran is essentially being guided by old-school Soviet interests, chief among them the survival of the Assad regime. Iran is also keenly eager to maintain access to Syrian ports and to continue to enjoy the manipulative support of the Chinese. In one fell swoop, Iran is uniting all of the anti-American elements under the umbrella of its Shiite-expansionist agenda. The prospect of losing the Syrian link in the form of the rickety Assad compelled the Iranians to dispatch thousands of armed combatants and extend aid in the form of weapons, cash and equipment. 

This is why Hezbollah was ordered to unleash potent firepower in Syria and fight alongside the regime, forming what is essentially an operative Shiite arm in Assad's struggle to keep power. In the clash of forces comprising the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Hezbollah fighters, and Syrian army divisions on the one hand, and armed oppositionists joined with Islamist gangs on the other, the regime has thus far vaulted ahead "on points." It is gaining back tactical positions that it lost, all the while exacting heavy casualties on the civilian side on a daily basis. 

The inter-power fighting in Syria is being waged by proxies, but the balance of forces and arms are not equal. As of this writing, the sophisticated weaponry Assad has received primarily from the Russians, the Iranians and Hezbollah has been the difference in the battles waged in the cities. With the help of Hezbollah, the Syrian army has been advancing, scoring a series of tactical wins while deploying air support and the most up-to-date drones, the best that the Russian military industries have to offer. Given the West's increased readiness to throw its support behind the rebels, Russia's Vladimir Putin warned the Europeans that supplying arms to the rebels would result in "counter-responses" against them.

For their part, the Americans pledged that the use of chemical weapons by the Syrian regime would constitute a crossing of "red lines" that would trigger Washington's intervention. By making such a statement, the Americans limited their room to maneuver in case the rebels staged such an event to make it seem as if the regime was guilty. The regime could complicate matters even further by using the weapons just to draw the Americans into the conflict at an inconvenient moment. 

In light of the carnage and the growing signs that the regime did in fact deploy chemical weapons, the Europeans threatened to send arms shipments to the rebels. Assad, who has amassed an expertise in the field of terrorism, immediately issued his own threat, warning that Europe would be made to pay the price. Meanwhile, the Americans have failed to solve the knot they tied for themselves, as nothing has come of their discussions with the Russians or with other G-8 member states ahead of the "Geneva 2" peace summit. 

As the Americans sit idly by, they are being condemned by their Sunni Arab allies as a helpless empire. Spurred on by the criticism, they recently announced that they would start sending arms to the rebels. The problem is that the Syrian opposition is hardly homogeneous, which complicates Western efforts to help it. Some of the militia fighters are deserters from the Syrian army. Others are secular civilian activists. The majority, however, are radical Islamist-Salafists, some of whom came from other Arab states while others are "locally produced."

The problem is that most of the Islamist forces are of a Sunni-Muslim orientation whose roots could be traced to the Muslim Brotherhood and al-Qaida. These elements go by the names "Jabhat al-Nusra" (Al-Nusra Front), "Ahrar al-Sham" (Islamic Movement of the Free Men), and "Kitaab al-Farouq" (Al-Farouq Brigades). There is disagreement among these factions over the character of a post-Assad, Islamist regime. Indeed, these forces are engaged in a premature game of musical chairs, fighting over who gets what position of power. 

American paralysis could be explained by the lessons which Washington learned the hard way. After arming the Islamist elements that defeated the Soviets in the late 1980s in Afghanistan, those same forces would send their surrogates plunging into the World Trade Center over a decade later. This taught the Americans a thing or two about Islamic loyalty, making it difficult for the Obama administration to choose a reliable interlocutor among the opposition. 

Proposals to institute an U.S.-led no-fly zone or direct American involvement are quickly snuffed out by the menacing Russian veto. As such, the rebels are receiving their weapons solely from neighboring Arab sources. It seems that the Americans will only supply arms "selectively." Perhaps the kill ratio will change as a result. 

While Syrian towns continue to be subjected to bombing, over a million refugees remain in distress in countries neighboring Syria. The Sunni Arab world is in flux. Jordan is preparing to defend its northern border by performing maneuvers and joint military exercises with Western forces in hopes of deterring the Syrian regime from trying to drag the Hashemites into their conflict. Turkey is pointing its finger at the Syrian regime, accusing it of encouraging terrorist attacks on its soil and of whipping up the demonstrations in Taksim Square. 

The situation that has evolved in Syria has put Hezbollah in the position of being perceived in the Arab world as an armed organ in the service of Iran. The Arabs don't buy the nonsensical talk about liberating Palestine as the root cause of Hezbollah's continued armament and its attempt to consolidate control over Lebanon. 

Officially, Hezbollah justified its intervention in Syria by citing the need to protect a Shiite holy site. Then it said its involvement was necessary to halt the imperialist plans of Israel and the U.S., both of whom were intent on dismembering Syria and eliminating the "muqawama" (resistance) dedicated to freeing Palestine. Hezbollah's rivals repeatedly remind the Shiite militia that the Zionist enemy could be found in "Palestine" and not in Syria. They are recommending that they do battle with Israel along the Golan Heights frontier.

Following the battles at Qusair, Hezbollah fighters joined Syrian infantry troops in raiding targets ensconced in Syrian cities. It was they, along with Revolutionary Guards soldiers, who provocatively waved the Shiite banners over the mosques of Syria. As a result, the usually divided parliamentary factions in Lebanon came together under the leadership of former prime minister Fouad Siniora, who currently heads the Future Movement (Al-Mustaqbal), to demand in unison the withdrawal of Hezbollah forces from Syria and the decommissioning of its weapons. 

The anti-Syrian March 14 Alliance, which was formed following the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri, accused Hezbollah of igniting sectarian warfare in Lebanon and the Arab world by importing the Syrian conflict into Lebanon. Hezbollah is now being described in the Lebanese press as an armed militia that poses a threat to the country's sovereignty and integrity by increasing the risk of civil war. Nasrallah's organization is now viewed as a tool of Iran and Syria, an agent beholden to their interests at the expense of Lebanese law. 

Hezbollah's involvement in Syria has prompted forces inside Lebanon to retaliate militarily against the Shiite group in the Beqaa Valley, Beirut, Sidon, Tripoli and the Ein Alhalwa refugee camp. These clashes included missile fire, and they could drag the Palestinian refugees, who have sentimental connections with their embattled Sunni and Palestinian brethren in the Yarmouk refugee camp in Syria, into the mix.

Hezbollah's foes are demanding that the Lebanese Army be deployed along the borders, with international forces, to prevent Hezbollah fighters from crossing into Syria. The group's adversaries are growing increasingly nervous over the prospect of Hezbollah's burgeoning arsenal, so much so that the Shiite militia could very well become more powerful than the army itself. 

Hamas is also aiming to be a factor by deflecting attention away from the Syria trauma. Its operatives are trying to spread rumors of an alleged Israeli plot to blow up the Al-Aqsa Mosque and build in its stead a temple. Since Hamas political officials left Syria, there has been an erosion in ties between its former sponsors, Syria and Iran. Since the outbreak of the Syria crisis, Hamas has gradually cut ties with its former terror masters, instead choosing to take cover under the shade provided by Sunni Arab governments. 

This past week, the head of Hamas' Gaza government called on Hezbollah to immediately pull out of Syria and cease assisting Bashar Assad in the massacre of the Sunni Syrian people. In response, Hezbollah accused Hamas of betrayal, particularly after it helped the Palestinian group with arms and money supplies along the Egyptian border. 

The fighting in Syria is spreading to Iraq. It threatens to drag the entire Islamic world into bloodshed and intra-religious war between Sunnis and Shiites. Iraq's Shiite Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, is telling opponents that it would be preferable if the arms were pointed toward Israel, using the oldest trick in the book to "unite the ranks."

The Sunni-Shiite war has begun. For once, there is something for which we are not guilty.

Dr. Reuven Berko

Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=10145

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