by Amir Mizroch
America sending light arms • Russia sending S-300 and MiGs • Iran sending 4,000 elite troops • Chechen Islamists fighting Assad have anti-aircraft missiles • Jordan, Egypt cut off diplomatic relations with Damascus • Israel, U.S. plan for WMD strike.
Russia has decided to bulk
up its naval presence in the Mediterranean Sea [Archive]
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Photo credit: AP  |
World powers and regional actors are
increasingly converging on Syria, a development which threatens to mesh
the civil war between pro- and anti-Syrian regime forces into the wider
regional conflict between Sunnis and Shiites, as well as the global
tussle between the U.S. and Russia over spheres of influence.
As the Obama administration announced it would
begin sending aid in the form of light arms and ammunition to the
Syrian opposition via the CIA, Iran has taken the decision to send some
4,000 of its elite Republican Guard fighters to aid the regime of Syrian
President Bashar Assad, the British Independent reported on Sunday. The
Iranian deployment, if and when it happens, comes after the
Iranian-backed Hezbollah terrorist group sent thousands of its fighters
to bolster Assad's forces. Hezbollah has effectively gone "all in" in
support of Assad's regime.
On the Sunni side, Islamists from across the
region have joined the battle against Assad's Alawite regime, backed as
it is by the Shiite Hezbollah, who Sunni clerics have now called "The
Party of the Devil," a play on Hezbollah's meaning "The Party of God."
The more Islamist-dominated rebel forces are being backed financially
and materially by Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Up to 3,000 American
"advisers" are now believed to be in Jordan, the Independent reports.
It's not known how many advisors Russia has in Syria, but the Russians
do have an active port in Tartous, and Russian experts will need to
train Syrian officers in the use and maintenance of the S-300 systems.
Chechen Islamists fighting against Assad in Syria are reportedly in
possession of advanced anti-aircraft weapons; and there are reports of
hundreds of European Muslims fighting for the rebels in Syria.
"For the first time, all of America's
'friends' in the region are Sunni Muslims and all of its enemies are
Shiites," the Independent reports.
"Iran is now fully committed to preserving
Assad's regime, according to pro-Iranian sources which have been deeply
involved in the Islamic Republic's security, even to the extent of
proposing to open up a new 'Syrian' front on the Golan Heights against
Israel," The Independent reported. Assad himself has warned that should
Israel attack inside his country again (according to foreign media
reports, Israel has struck three times inside Syria this year) then the
Syrian army would respond, and that a new front on the Golan would be
opened. Syria is now openly placing the blame for the rebellion on
Israel, America, Qatar and Turkey, saying it is a "American-Zionist
plot" to destabilize Syria. Syrian regime media have tied the reported
Israeli air attacks to simultaneous moves by Free Syria Army units in
the vicinity of the attacks, and say that the Israel Defense Forces and
FSA are in full coordination. It is unlikely that Assad will order his
regular units to fire on Israel from the Golan, but he could "allow"
Palestinian groups such as the Popular Front for the Liberation of
Palestine -- General Command to launch attacks from the area. If this
happens, who will Israel hold responsible? The Palestinian terrorists,
or Assad himself?
Meanwhile, Russia has been providing the Assad
regime with diplomatic cover [three Security Council vetoes] since the
uprising against him began over two years ago, and has announced that it
will deliver on the sale of advanced S-300 anti-aircraft weapons to
Syria. Russia will also sell Assad 10 MiG-29 combat aircraft, and, more
significantly, will establish a permanent naval presence in the area by
creating a Mediterranean fleet, including submarines (It's going to get
awfully crowded down there.) The Kremlin has also cast aspersions over
the West's claims that Assad's forces have used chemical weapons against
the rebels, of which there is mounting proof (just as Russia cannot see
any evidence of weaponization in Iran's nuclear program, despite
incessant International Atomic Energy Agency reports to the contrary).
"The deployment of Russian ships in the Mediterranean Sea is the
beginning of a new concept of the Russian foreign policy," Pravda
reports. In other words, if Obama intends to "pivot to Asia", which is
Russia's backyard, Putin will "pivot to the Near East" and bog down the
U.S. superpower, keeping much of its resources tied down in the
quicksand of the Middle East.
Israel's neighbors Jordan and Egypt,
meanwhile, are also getting sucked into the conflict in Syria, with
Jordan playing host to American F-16 jets and Patriot missiles, as well
as reportedly coordinating possible moves against storage sites for
weapons of mass destruction inside Syria should these sites be about to
fall into rebel hands. Israel, who is also reported to be coordinating
with the U.S. on plans against WMDs, has vowed not to allow the transfer
of strategic weapons, including WMDs, to terrorist hands, including
Hezbollah.
Egypt has announced that it is cutting off all
ties with Damascus and is closing its embassy there. Jordan is expected
to follow suit.
While Turkey is currently embroiled in
internal unrest, it is heavily invested in the Syria conflict. Mossad
chief Tamir Pardo visited Ankara last week, and according to reports,
gave his hosts intelligence about Iranian and Syrian intelligence
activities inside Turkey.
Europe, in large part, has lifted its arms
embargo on rebel groups in Syria. While some European countries still
refuse to list Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, there is
increasing scrutiny of the terrorist group's fund-raising and other
terror activity on European soil. Closer to home, U.N. peacekeepers are
on their way out the Syrian Golan, and their Lebanon-based counterparts
(the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon) are in an increasingly
precarious situation as the Syrian civil war increasingly encroaches
into Lebanon. Many nations who have boots on the ground in Lebanon
through UNIFIL are also worried that if the EU labels Hezbollah a
terrorist organization, their men will bear the consequences.
In Israel, the picture of Syria is as gloomy
and uncertain as ever. Over the weekend, Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon
told the Washington Institute that he does not believe that Assad's
victory in Qusair was a turning point and does not believe "Assad has
the momentum to win."
The problem with that assessment is that it
entirely contradicts another assessment by another senior Israeli
cabinet minister with access to intelligence information. "Not only is
there a real possibility that Syrian President Bashar Assad will survive
the civil war ravaging his country, but Assad could even prevail in his
war against rebels trying to topple him," Intelligence, International
Relations and Strategic Affairs Minister Dr. Yuval Steinitz said last
Monday. The IDF, meanwhile, has embarked on another week-long drill,
just weeks after the country underwent a week-long homefront command
drill to test the public's readiness for a massive missile bombardment.
In both cases, the IDF Spokesperson's Unit said the drills were routine
and preplanned.
The big question for Israel is: If Israel is
forced to act to enforce one or more of its stated "red lines" on Syria
(no transfer of WMDs, no transfer of strategic arms to terrorists, no
fire at the IDF in the Golan), what repercussions will that now have?
Will the response be entirely Syrian, or will Hezbollah or Iran respond
directly? Will Israel dare to strike a Russian arms shipment to Syria,
or will it wait until the Russian "advisors" have handed over to the
Syrian counterparts?
With so many local, regional, and international actors
flooding Syria, and with the increase in arms and advisors in the
country, it could be only a matter of time until a trigger event sets
off a much wider conflagration.
Amir Mizroch
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=10029
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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