by Zalman Shoval
Fraught with conflict,
the surrounding Middle East is like a viper's den that Israel is doing
its best not to stumble into. In the Sinai Peninsula, a bloody war is
raging between the Egyptian military and Hamas-backed Islamic
fundamentalists. That fighting could easily spill into Israel if it
weren't for the border fence (which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
pressed for, despite the objection of the Israel Defense Forces chief of
staff, and which dramatically reduced infiltration from Africa). In the
North, the situation is murkier yet. In Syria, battles are taking place
not only between government forces and rebels, but also among the
rebels themselves, and civil war has left a stain of blood spilling into
Lebanon.
But it would be wrong
to view the fires blazing around us as a mere sequence of violent
outbursts. These events have far-reaching consequences, affecting both
the struggle between Sunnis and Shiites and the balance of power between
foreign countries stirring the pot (Iran, Turkey, Russia, the Gulf
states and the U.S., whose current role in the situation is unclear,
even to itself). Of course, Israel is not indifferent to what is taking
place. Israel's immediate concern is that the events transpiring in its
dangerous neighborhood do not threaten its current or future security.
However, the long-term geopolitical implications of what is occurring
are much broader, affecting issues like the defense budget and IDF
planning.
In Syria, the picture
includes more than just the struggle between the government and the
rebels. The puppet masters, including Iran and Hezbollah, Russia, the
Sunni Gulf states (which aren't united), Turkey and, as previously
stated, a half-absent U.S. are also deeply involved. The bottom line is
that all possible outcomes are unsavory. The other side of Israel's
northern borders will be controlled, directly or indirectly, by Iran,
jihadist elements, or the ongoing anarchy there that could also harm us.
But the news might not
all be bad. If the recent revolution in Egypt takes hold, it could
thwart the advance of political Islam in other parts of the Arab world
and perhaps even halt it completely. Until now, the growth of the
political Islam had been the main result of the Arab Spring. It is also
possible that the downfall of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt could lead
to the weakening of Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood's Palestinian
offshoot.
Hezbollah's situation
is more complex. While Hezbollah's involvement in the Syrian civil war
has harmed the group, it will get a large chuck of the political booty
if Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime emerges victorious. On the
other hand, Hezbollah's status will be degraded if Assad loses. Both
scenarios will have an impact on Israel's security situation.
The debate in Israel over the
defense budget is not just about money, but also about what Israel must
do to adapt to the new geopolitical reality it faces. While the
immediate threat posed by conventional forces has decreased, the dangers
posed by terrorist groups like al-Qaida (as well as Hezbollah and
Hamas, even though they are currently in retreat) have increased. Such
terrorists groups could act against Israel in ways that ignite a
regional conflagration. And, of course, the greatest threat is Iran's
nuclear program. The time remaining to stop that program is lessening
with each passing day.
Zalman Shoval
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=4981
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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