by Barry Rubin
It’s
really pretty simple. The American people understandably don’t want to
go to war with Syria, not to mention Syria’s patron of Iran and especially not to put into power the Muslim Brotherhood and murderous Islamists. Going
to war is a serious matter to say the least. There’s no assurance how
long it will take, how many lives it will cost, and what turns it may
take.
In
fact the Middle East has just had several examples of these wars. Iraq
and Afghanistan cost a lot of money and lives as they extended for a
much longer time than had been expected. In addition they derailed the
Bush Administration’s electoral fortunes and domestic programs. With the
main emphasis of the Obama Administration being a fundamental
transformation of America such distractions are not desired.
There
is one other important consideration. The Obama Administration does not
accept the traditional diplomatic and great power strategies. It
believes that it can reconcile with Islamist states; it does not
comprehend deterrents; it does not keep faith with allies; and it does
not believe in credibility, which is the belief that only power exerted
can convince a foe of seriousness.Of course, that wouldn’t rule out a
one -time targeted attack but even if that were to be done is America
going to fight a full-scale war on the ground with the American allies
(including al-Qaida) never satisfied and eager to stab them in the back?
The
administration has trapped itself with two problems. One is that the
rebels who are being supported in Syria are extreme radicals who may set
off blood baths and regional instability if they win. The other is that
a challenge has been given to very reckless forces: Iran, Syria, and
Hizballah. When the United States threatens these three players the
response is “make my day!”
So
this is the situation. The United States is bluffing, it does not want
to exert force and probably won’t. In other words, Iran and Syria would
be quite willing to fight a war but the United States and its government
doesn’t have the will to do so.
What
is the optimum option for the Obama Administration ? To try to
negotiate – as unlikely as it is – a deal in which some kind of interim
or coalition arrangement would be arranged with Russia and Iran to make a
transition from the current regime. And that mainly means stalling for
time.
That
could work, though, if the regime does not actually win in the war. Aid
to rebels and some gimmicks, perhaps but no decisive action. Remember.
though, that Iran cannot be said to have won as long as the civil war
is continuing. The Administration can simply depend on denial, which
should be sufficient for domestic purposes.
There
is, however. a problem. The two sides Syrian sides want to wipe each
other out. Why should the Russians and Iranians make a deal if they have
a winning hand? No diplomatic arrangement is possible. In fact the
diplomatic option is fictional or, to put it flatly, there is no
alternative.
It
is not inconceivable that the White House would consider easing
sanctions on the Iranian nuclear program to have a chance on making a
deal on Syria.
What
is likely then is stalling, with the probability that the civil war
will settle into stagnation for several years and thus a de facto
partition of Syria. The United States simply can’t win given what it is
willing to do. And in a great power standoff that’s a very dangerous
situation.Remember. though, that Iran
cannot be said to have won as long as the civil war is continuing. The
Administration can simply depend on denial, which should be sufficient
for domestic purposes.
Finally,
ask yourself one question: Will the United States under Obama dare a
confrontation with Iran, Syria, and Russia to keep up American
credibility, deterrence, and confidence of allies who it is already
opposing on Egypt?
Of course not. This is already a president who could barely decide to kill Usama bin Ladin.
Barry Rubin
Source: http://www.gloria-center.org/2013/08/rubinreports-2013-08-27-084200/
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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