by Boaz Bismuth
The nightmare scenario
in Egypt is unfolding before our eyes as it slowly descends into civil
war, and there is no one "in charge" in the world today that can stop
it. Syria is not the only country where the army is shooting at
civilians. It is not the only country that the international community
is divided over, and Syria is not the only place where U.S. President
Barack Obama is at his wit's end and shamed.
The Egyptian military
is aspiring, through the current interim government, to outlaw the
Muslim Brotherhood, just as Mubarak did. It does not have much choice.
The liberals may have shown their strength in the streets, but the
Muslim Brotherhood's strength can also be expressed at the ballots. In
the meantime the army is sustaining criticism from the world for
slaughtering civilians, but is it receiving support, for the time being,
from a large portion of Egyptian society. Even if the fight is
primarily over Egypt's character, a large segment of Egypt's population
is willing to accept the regime's claim that this is a campaign against
terrorism. The enlightened world thinks in terms of morality, the
Egyptians -- those who are not Islamists -- think in terms of their
future.
Egypt is bleeding and
angry. While the army and Muslim Brotherhood clash in the streets, at a
high cost of hundreds of casualties in just one weekend, many Egyptians
-- especially the military -- are furious at Washington. The United
States, Egypt's number one ally in the world with an annual aid package
of $1.3 billion, has all of a sudden become irrelevant. One can assume
that this is not what the American president had in mind when he
delivered his famous Cairo speech in 2009. In Egypt, Obama is seen not
as the person who did not prevent Mubarak's downfall, rather as the
person who supported the Muslim Brotherhood. At the same time, Obama
could be perceived at home as breaking the law due to his refusal to
recognize a military coup in Egypt, which would prohibit him from
transferring aid funds. This is without doubt an awkward situation for
the president.
Obama is humiliated.
After he refused to answer U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel's
calls, Col. Gen. Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, currently the strongest person
in Egypt, also refused to answer a call from Obama. The Egyptian defense
minister is waging a military campaign against the Muslim Brotherhood
while simultaneously opening a diplomatic front against the United
States. The cancellation of a joint military exercise with the U.S. is
not much of a concern for Sissi. On the contrary, the cancellation is
more of a concern for Jerusalem, which needs a friendly, professional
and strong Egyptian army along its southern border.
Sissi can afford to
maintain his aggressive stance against Washington. He currently still
enjoys the backing of the Egyptian street, a large portion of the
country's liberals. Mostly, he has found an alternative to American aid
for his country, as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates
have pledged $12 billion to re-stabilize the country and rehabilitate
the economy.
The Saudis,
incidentally, have a clear interest in offering help. With this one move
they can support a military regime, which from their perspective will
return Egypt to the days of Mubarak, and also exact revenge on Obama for
abandoning a friend. The Saudi kingdom, as opposed to its sworn rival
Qatar, is hostile toward the Muslim Brotherhood and supports the
Egyptian army's actions to return the country to its pervious course.
The Egyptian street
also finds it difficult to forget how the U.S. ambassador in Cairo
objected to the "Tamarod" movement's initiative to organize massive
protest rallies in late June, which culminated in the military coup on
July 3.
The Tamarod movement
won wall-to-wall support from the world for its open and particularly
democratic nature. Over the weekend this same movement began signing a
new petition calling for "ending American aid to Egypt," and which
expresses its desire to cancel the peace treaty with Israel. This is all
we need, that in its effort to appease the Egyptian street and
completely turn its back on Obama, the army will also begin to turn a
cold shoulder, heaven forbid, toward us. We have already seen how
coalitions in the Middle East can change very quickly. Moreover, by
hardening its attitude toward Israel, the army can find an easy way to
garner the public's affections.
Does anyone today even remember
how in 2009 Washington counted on Egyptian stability to provide the
momentum for renewed peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians? Is
this really the most important issue on the agenda in the region? But
Israel did its part and, as a trust-building measure, released
Palestinian murderers, because Israel is perhaps the last country that
still takes Obama seriously.
Boaz Bismuth
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=5393
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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