by Prof. Eyal Zisser
Two and half years ago, millions of Egyptians let the Islamic genie out of the bottle.
They took to the
streets to topple Hosni Mubarak, and the vacuum created by his ouster
was quickly filled by the Muslim Brotherhood. While the Muslim
Brotherhood took advantage of the wide popular support that it had at
the time, the group's rise to power was mainly aided by the paralysis of
the Egyptian establishment, military and security forces. In June 2012,
the Muslim Brotherhood's representative, Mohammed Morsi, was elected
president.
Today, in what appears
to be atonement for their original sin of letting the Muslim Brothers
take control of their revolution, the Tahrir youths are remaining in
their homes, thus backing the military's war on the Muslim Brotherhood.
The goal of the war is to put the Islamic genie back in the bottle.
A lot has changed over
the past two and a half years. The Muslim Brotherhood misread the
Egyptian political map and committed the sin of arrogance by truly
believing it had been chosen by Allah to lead the country. More
importantly, Egypt's establishment recovered from the nasty blow it had
been dealt by Mubarak's downfall. This was particularly true of the
military, led by the energetic defense secretary, Col. Gen. Abdel-Fattah
el-Sissi.
The die was cast in
early July, with the ousting of Morsi from power. The Egyptian military
returned to the scene and made clear that it planned to rule, rather
than continue to serve as a mediator for national reconciliation. And
more significantly, the military also showed that it did not intend to
hold a dialogue with the Muslim Brotherhood. Rather, it would hit the
Muslim Brotherhood with an iron fist to return the group to the status
it had during the Mubarak era, when the group faced persecution.
It seems that Western
and Israeli media outlets still don't get it. Newspaper headlines are
promising civil war or at least ongoing chaos in Egypt. But in reality,
it looks as if the Egyptian military has nearly completed its takeover
of the country. Unlike during the revolution that brought down Mubarak,
Egypt's security forces currently have the initiative and are able to
impose their authority over all parts of the country (although Sinai is
still up for grabs). Also, the Muslim Brotherhood is not able to send
millions into the streets. The demonstrations being reported on in the
media include just a few thousand people and the Egyptian regime is not
having much difficulty handling them.
Egypt's interior minister
explained simply that the regime's goal is to return the level of
security back to what it was before Jan. 25, 2011. In other words, a
return to the Mubarak era, but without Mubarak. As long as Sissi is
around, there is no need for Mubarak.
Prof. Eyal Zisser
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=5401
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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