by Yoav Limor
The investigation into
the abduction and murder of Israel Air Force Sgt. Tomer Hazan over the
weekend is still ongoing, but the initial inquiry has already yielded
two clear conclusions: the first is that the motivation to abduct
Israelis, especially soldiers, is very high, as terrorists know that
Israel is willing to pay a hefty price for their release; and the second
is that in the absence of advanced intelligence, it is virtually
impossible to thwart a terror attack, especially if the soldier is
perhaps not as vigilant as he should be.
The defense
establishment is well aware of the issue of motivation, which has only
increased since the 2011 Gilad Schalit prisoner exchange deal. In the
first nine months of 2013 security forces have gathered solid
intelligence indicating that dozens of West Bank terror cells were
plotting to abduct Israelis with the intent of using them as bargaining
chips. The majority of these plots were thwarted in the planning stages
and a few in their early execution stages. In one case, a terror cell
was already on Israeli soil and it was a pure stroke of luck that it was
exposed before executing its plan.
What makes Saturday's
case different than the others is the motive. Past abductions were
planned by terror organizations, which, apart from the attack's shock
value, sought to use its execution to score political points. This
attack stemmed from personal motives: abductor Nidal Amar's desire to
see his brother -- Nur al-Din Amar, who was convicted of a shooting
attack and jailed until 2030 -- freed from Israeli prison.
This motive was
probably what made preventing this terror attack difficult. Planning
such an attack within the framework of a group creates interactions
between partners, which in turn leads to intelligence opportunities to
thwart it. A lone terrorist, on the other hand, can only be stopped if
he makes a mistake.
The investigation into
Hazan's murder will have to determine whether Amar was operating alone
or whether he had accomplices; whether his brother was aware of the plot
or involved in it, in which case the Israel Prison Service and the Shin
Bet would have to account for why they did not know about it; and
whether Amar was involved in criminal activity in Israel, in which case
the police would have to check why no warning bells went off.
The fact that Amar was
in Israel illegally is also very disturbing: There are tens of thousands
of Palestinians who are staying in Israel illegally -- and the
authorities are aware of it -- but while most of them are honest,
hardworking people, the loophole itself is dangerous and should be dealt
with more rigorously.
The issue of
intelligence is also a well known one, and the IDF invests considerable
efforts in its public relations deterrence campaign [meant to make
soldiers aware of the dangers of hitchhiking], but despite numerous past
cases, Hazan agreed to join Amar on a ride to the West Bank, thus
sealing his own fate.
The lesson is clear and
written in blood: Do not be tempted by such offers, alluring as they
may be. The immediate reason is the clear threat to the soldier's (or
civilian's) life, but in a broader context -- such events have the
potential to become a national crisis and could therefore pose a
strategic problem for Israel.
Had Amar's scheme been
realized in full this would have been the case. He murdered Hazan
knowing that Israel's intelligence network in the West Bank was solid
and that it would be much easier to hide a body than an abducted
soldier. His initial interrogation has yet to derive how exactly he
meant to hold the negotiations he hoped would lead to his brother's
release, but it is not hard to imagine the tailspin Israel would have
found itself in had Hazan simply disappeared without a trace.
In that respect it is good that
this case was solved immediately and that the killer was caught, but the
lessons have to be learned, both by the establishment -- to foil future
kidnapping attempts, and on an individual level -- with the aim of
every soldier and civilian helping to prevent his or her own abduction.
Yoav Limor
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=5755
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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