by Israel Hayom Staff
As of today, Iran could produce sufficient quantity of uranium for a nuclear bomb with its installed centrifuges and low enriched uranium stockpiles in as little as one month, a report by the U.S. Institute for Science and International Security has found.
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As of today, Iran could "break out" and
produce a sufficient quantity of uranium for a nuclear bomb by using its
installed centrifuges and low enriched uranium stockpiles in as little
as one month, a report by the U.S. Institute for Science and
International Security has found.
Using its existing equipment and uranium
stockpiles, Iran could produce "sufficient quantity in as little as
approximately 1.0-1.6 months, if it uses all its near 20 percent low
enriched hexafluoride stockpile. Using only 3.5 percent LEU, Iran would
need at least 1.9 to 2.2 months and could make approximately 4
sufficient quantities of weapons grade uranium using all its existing
3.5 percent low enriched uranium stockpile," the report from the highly
respected organization states.
In a paper entitled "Iranian Breakout Estimates, Updated September 2013", authors Patrick Migliorini, David Albright, Houston Wood, and Christina
Walrond write that since their last report in October 2012, Iran has
steadily expanded the number of centrifuges installed at both its Fordow
and Natanz gas centrifuge plants.
Additionally, the report states, Iran has
started installing its more advanced centrifuge model, the IR-2m
centrifuge, at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant. It is these
"substantial changes" which have merited the group to update its
previous breakout estimates of the time Iran would need to produce one
significant quantity of weapon-grade uranium.
The report states that if Iran successfully
produced enough weapons grade iranium for a nuclear weapon, the ensuing
weaponization process might not be detectable until Iran tested its
nuclear device underground or otherwise revealed its acquisition of
nuclear weapons. "Therefore, the most practical strategy to prevent Iran
from obtaining nuclear weapons is to prevent it from accumulating
sufficient nuclear explosive material, particularly in secret or without
adequate warning. This strategy depends on knowing how quickly Iran
could make weapons grade uranium," the report states.
Assuming Iran possessed covert nuclear
facilities with "optimized cascade structure and very good centrifuge
performance, it is possible that Iran could use a covert plant to break
out in as little as approximately one to two weeks," the report states.
The Institute recommends that nuclear
negotiations be guided by "the need to lengthen breakout times
significantly from their current values. A reasonable minimum breakout
time should be six months or preferably longer. If breakout took greater
than or equal to six months, the IAEA could clearly detect
It is long before sufficient quantity is
produced, and the international community would have time to marshal a
response to stop Iran producing enough weapons grade uranium for a
nuclear weapon."
Israel Hayom Staff
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=12833
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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