by MEMRI
In an interview with the Saudi daily 'Okaz on June 28, 2014, Saad Mehio, an editorial manager at the Carnegie Middle East Center, said that Iran is facing both economic collapse and division because of its involvement in Iraq and in Syria - the latter of which he refers to as "the Iranian Vietnam or Afghanistan." He expressed his view that "the Iranian regime's policy of defending itself by expanding its regional influence can no longer continue and develop, considering how costly it is for Tehran to maintain its regional influence in Syria, Lebanon, Palestinian and Iraq... The regimes in Iraq and Syria are becoming a financial burden for the Iranian economy, [and] if this continues, [Iran] will be forced to make considerable concessions in these arenas." He also assessed that "Iran, in its current economic circumstances, will top [the list of] regional countries facing potential division."
Mehio added that the crisis in Iraq is the result of the failures of Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki, who continues to stubbornly cling to his seat although most Iraqis, including Shi'ites, oppose his policies.
The interview was conducted by Saudi writer Khalid Tashkandi; the following day, June 29, Tashkandi published commentary on the interview titled "Iran The First [Country] To Be Divided". The following are excerpts from the commentary:
Saad Mehio (image: twitter.com/SaadMehio)"[Mehio says that] there are fears that Iraq will be divided and broken up into mini-states in the north, south, and center, because of the failure of Nouri Al-Maliki's government and its policy, which was expressed by sectarian discrimination and by the marginalization of segments of the population with the support of Iranian influence in Iraq. This is being said all the time, and it has become a refrain in conversations about Iraq.
"However, according to serious assessments, the
collapse of the entire Iranian regime is much closer, along with the
division of Iran into a group of mini-states, led by ethnic minorities
suffering harsh discrimination. This is what I was told by political
analyst Saad Mehio, [an official at] the Carnegie Middle East Center, in
a phone conversation regarding the Iraq crisis several days ago,
segments of which were published in 'Okaz.
"Mehio is a leading analyst of Arab political
psychology, and his assessments [shed light on] future developments. One
of his most salient points was that revolutions, wars, violence, and
upheavals – especially in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine – were
merely a result of the erosion of Iranian influence in the region,
particularly after the opening of two military fronts, in Iraq and
Syria. The latter [front] is costing Iran close to 25 billion annually,
with no sign that the balance is tipping in favor of its ally, the Assad
regime. This financial burden comes on top of the series of economic
crises that have befallen Iran as a result of the economic sanctions
leveled against it due to its nuclear program, the damage from which
includes reduced petrodollar revenues. All this brings Iran to the brink
of economic collapse, which would be followed by the fall of the entire
Iranian regime.
"[Mehio] further said that Iran's political role in
the Arab region is like that of a superpower, but its capabilities are
like those of a third- or fourth-world nation. While it seeks to
leverage its influence into a geostrategic position overlooking the
Mediterranean Sea... this plan has yet to pay off... [Iran] has had no
economic gains from its attempts to expand its influence, which already
are unwarranted. However, Iran wants to revive the historical political
prestige that it enjoyed during the Persian Empire.
"Iran is sinking on the Syrian front – [a front]
which has become 'the Iranian Vietnam.' It will sink even deeper if it
insists on supporting the Al-Maliki government in Iraq. [Al-Maliki] has
become an outcast in Iraq, even among Shi'ites, and especially among the
[Musa] Al-Sadr and ['Ammar] Al-Hakim groups. [But] he cleaves to Iran's
policy of spreading its influence. Influential Iranian hands within
Iraq are refraining from removing Al-Maliki, who is considered the last
bastion of Iranian influence in the region. Therefore, Iran faces a real
conflict and the opening of another front in Iraq – but it will not be
able to manage this front, neither militarily nor economically.
"No one knows how Iran is waging these battles and
attempting to expand its influence outside its borders at a time when it
is so unstable at home. Iranian Central Bank reports, as published in
Iranian daily newspapers, mainly Sarmayeh, show that Iran's
average [annual] inflation tops 30% and that its economy is shrinking.
According to other reports, over one third of Iranians live below the
poverty line – and this is in addition to the withering international
economic sanctions leveled against it every month. Iran's oil exports
this year have barely reached an average of 700,000 barrels per day, and
it also has a shortage of basic commodities and increased unemployment
because many factories are halting operations.
"It is clear that this Iranian policy will not last
long, and that Iran's influence in the Arab region is dying. If Iran
does not back down from this policy, it will necessarily collapse from
within, on all levels – political, security, economic, and social. It
will be among the first countries to be divided, especially considering
the ethnic shifts in the region. Some minorities in Iran have
historically suffered harsh discrimination, most notably the Azeris, of
Azerbaijani-Turkish origin…"
MEMRI
Source: http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/8060.htm
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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