by Dr. Reuven Berko
The Iranians, currently at a disadvantage facing a Sunni Arab coalition supported by the West, have the Tehran-Beirut conduit and are using "peripheral" conflicts that are "minor and limited in scope" as an opening gambit against the Arabian Peninsula while they wait for a nuclear bomb of their own. When that is constructed, they will push forward, unhindered.
On April 21, Saudi
Arabia changed the name of its operation against the Houthis in Yemen
from "Decisive Storm" to "Restoring Hope."
But in reality we're
talking about "False Hope." Saudi Arabia claimed it stopped the
operation because of U.N. Security Council Resolution 2216, which calls
for a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Yemen, and said the action
was halted at the request of the president of Yemen in light of the
success in eliminating the Houthis' stocks of heavy weaponry and
ballistic missiles. In practice, the Houthis and the "popular
resistance" are fighting fierce battles, no one is winning, and the
maritime siege and coalition air and sea strikes continue.
Saudi Arabia is
treating the results of its operation as a "victory," and other than
clashes with Houthi infiltrators on its border is refraining from a land
incursion. Military analyst Gen. Fayez al-Dwairi said the "popular
resistance" is in urgent need of anti-tank weapons to defeat the
Houthis, who are far from beaten and are still holed up in key areas of
Yemen and the entrance to Aden.
The lack of a victory
is seen in the fact that President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi and most of
his people are actually in Riyadh. Very few of them are under constant
attack by the Houthis in Aden. Al-Dwairi argues that in contrast to the
pessimistic predictions about the four capitals that "fell" into Iran's
hands, Sanaa has not been conquered. He says that some 85 percent of the
Houthis' military capability has been destroyed, and that the "popular
resistance" is in control of about 50 percent of Yemen.
In light of the
"victory," analysts are split about the reasons why the operation was
stopped. Some argue that there are no Houthi targets left to attack.
Others believe that the reluctance of Pakistan, Jordan, and Egypt (which
is dealing with its own troubles at home) to take part in a ground
operation limits the coalition's operational capabilities. Still others
think that the Saudis fear a direct war of attrition with Iran.
Remember, when nine
Iranian ships loaded with missiles reached the shores of Yemen, the
Americans sent in the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, and the
Iranian support ships turned tail and headed home. Reports out of Yemen
say that two American cruise missiles were recently fired at
unidentified targets in Sanaa.
It looks like even the
Americans have realized that the Houthi activity in Yemen is a critical
part of Iran's move to take over the Middle East. In mid-April, U.S.
Defense Secretary Ashton Carter warned Tehran that the Americans had
both military options and the massive ordinance penetrator technology to
use to destroy the Iranian nuclear program. This weekend, the White
House reiterated that it would continue providing logistic support for
Saudi Arabia's campaign against the Houthis. Secretary of State John
Kerry even warned Iran against bogging Lebanon down in another war.
Congress also bolstered oversight mechanisms in light of the impotent
agreement President Barack Obama has put together with Iran.
Russia, an
anti-American player that identifies with Syrian President Bashar Assad
and the Iranians, confirmed in early April that it was selling Iran the
S-300 aerial defense system to use in the event of a Western attack. The
Iranians, currently at a disadvantage facing a Sunni Arab coalition
supported by the West, have the Tehran-Beirut conduit and are using
"peripheral" conflicts that are "minor and limited in scope" as an
opening gambit against the Arabian Peninsula while they wait for a
nuclear bomb of their own. When that is constructed, they will push
forward, unhindered.
It also looks as if the
Turks, who have their own imperialist dreams, understand that the reach
of a "nuclearizing" Iran from Tehran to Beirut curtails their ability
to invade or assist the Sunni Arab nations. Despite their hatred for
Assad, their fear of the Iranians and the Russians keep them from
ousting him. Although he visited Tehran this month, Turkish President
Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared that Iran's attempts to take over the
region were unacceptable and that its terrorist organizations must leave
Yemen. Just to be on the safe side, Turkey is building three nuclear
reactors to "produce electricity."
Over the weekend, Saudi King
Salman and the Saudi defense minister met in Riyadh with Prime Minister
Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan -- a nuclear state -- and a delegation that
included Pakistan's military chief and its defense and intelligence
leadership. Sharif openly committed to provide sea and air support to
Saudi Arabia if it should be attacked by Iran. The Middle East nuclear
reactor is heating up, and Obama is busy with his deals.
Dr. Reuven Berko
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=12375
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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