by Eyal Zisser
The temptation to see Iran sink deeper into the Syrian quagmire cannot overcome the need to prevent Iranian military presence near the Israeli border, unless it is coordinated with Israel.
Various American
officials have declared the demise of the Islamic State group more than
once over the past year. But the organization is very much alive and
kicking, and, in fact, it seems things have never been better for it.
Extending its reach
beyond Syria and Iraq, Islamic State used this weekend to send Ramadan
greetings all over the world, from Tunisia through France to Kuwait.
Fliers bearing the jihadi group's markings were even distributed in
Jerusalem, urging Christians to leave the city and not defile it with
their presence during the month of Ramadan.
It appears that
Washington has realized that its strategy against Islamic State has
failed, and that the airstrikes in Iraq and Syria are ineffective. The
U.S. is therefore pursuing a different strategy, focused on forging
alliances with local forces, such as the Kurds in northern Iraq and
eastern Syria, as well as Shiite militias in south Iraq. These groups
have vested interest in fighting Islamic State and protecting their
home, and have emerged as fierce and highly effective fighters. The
Americans would be wise to expand this strategy to include Jabal
al-Druze in Syria.
These sectarian forces
could defend their home territory from Islamic State, but they have
neither the interest nor the ability to reclaim the vast areas the group
has seized across Syria and Iraq, where the majority of residents are
Sunnis. Realizing such an objective requires state resources and power,
but given the disintegration of Iraq and Syria, there are none to be
found.
Naturally, the
Americans have tried to form a Sunni coalition to fight Islamic State,
but this virtual alliance proved ineffective. Saudi Arabia has its hands
full with the war in Yemen, and given the animosity between Damascus
and Ankara, Turkey has no real interest in fighting Islamic State.
Moreover, should Syrian
President Bashar Assad's regime actually fall, it is hard to see the
various rebel groups in Syria banding together to stop Islamic State,
especially since whenever the jihadi group has confronted the Syrian
rebels directly, it has won.
This is why the U.S. is
interested in recruiting new allies in the fight against Islamic State,
even if these allies include Iran, and by proxy, Hezbollah and the
Assad regime.
According to this
logic, the Shiites in Lebanon and the Alawites in Syria, like the Kurds,
could serve as another tier in the fight against Islamic State, and
Iran could serve as the state entity lending the fight the clout and
resources it so desperately needs.
Such an alliance
already exists in Iraq, where both Washington and Tehran support, albeit
not overtly, the Shiite militias fighting Islamic State. Syria may be
the next place where this idea takes shape, and some have even
hypothesized -- surreal as it may sound -- that if and when Assad's
regime ends, and should Islamic State train its sights on Lebanon and
possibly the Golan Heights, an Israeli-Iranian understanding may be
forged over the need to fight a mutual enemy.
As detached as this
notion may sound at the moment, it has interesting possibilities.
However, as the U.S. is navigating the situation, the hypothetical
threat Islamic State poses to the U.S. has prompted Washington to hand
the Middle East over to Tehran.
A nuclear agreement
between Iran and the West is only the first step. Iranian advisers and
weapons are making their way to Syria freely even now, and the next step
may see Iran send its military to aid Syria's embattled president.
Israel must fight that
possibility, even if the move garners Washington's blessing. The
temptation to see Iran sink deeper into the Syrian quagmire cannot
overcome the need to prevent Iranian military presence near the Israeli
border, unless it is coordinated with Israel.
One way or another, the current
American administration wants to arrive at the 2016 finish line in
peace. The problem is, that deadline will come and go, and we will be
left to deal with the Middle East in its wake.
Eyal Zisser
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=13017
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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