Hezbollah Trying to Overthrow Lebanese Government - Ryan Mauro

by Ryan Mauro

Hopefully, the Lebanese protestors will learn from the Egyptians' and Tunisians' experiences and stop the Islamists from riding their coattails to victory.

Hezbollah followers at a rally (Photo: © Reuters)

The Hezbollah terrorist group has joined protests against the Lebanese government and is demanding that it resign. The political crisis presents an opportunity for the Iranian proxy, as well as Sunni extremists like the Islamic State if it escalates into sectarian fighting.

The complicated sectarian structure of the Lebanese government has led to political paralysis since 2014, culminating in large protests reminiscent of the Arab Spring crowds that toppled other governments in the region. The trigger is a garbage disposal crisis, leading to a movement known as "You Stink."

Taking a cue from the Muslim Brotherhood, Hezbollah is now trying to hijack the cause by shrouding itself in populism. It is demanding the resignation of the government, whose prime minister and interior minister are adversaries of Hezbollah, Iran and the Syrian dictatorship.

"The trash crisis is one of the faces of the accumulating and rampant corruption throughout the last two decades," the terror group said.

Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, whose father was assassinated in a plot widely believed to be hatched by the Iranian-Syrian-Hezbollah axis, is reiterating his support for the Lebanese government while condemning violence against protestors by security personnel.

"Toppling the government means the fall of the last legal bastion and pushing Lebanon into the unknown," Hariri warned.

The CIA World Factbook estimates that 41% of Lebanon is Christian and 54% is Muslim, divided evenly between Shiites and Sunnis. The demographics would seem to be a roadblock to Iran's advances, but unfortunately the regime has been able to build goodwill among Lebanese Christians despite the fact that persecution of Christians in Iran is reaching unprecedented levels.

The Lebanese government requires a Christian president, Sunni prime minister and Shiite parliamentary speaker. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has endorsed the group's Christian ally, Michel Aoun of the Free Patriotic Movement, to fill the vacant presidential post.

An October 2014 poll found that 39% of the Christians, 92% of the Shiites and 8% of the Sunnis view Hezbollah positively. Iran has an approval rating among Lebanese of 46% nationwide, consisting of 35% of Christians, 96% of Shiites and 12% of Sunnis. Syria's approval rating is 52%, consisting of 47% of the Christians, 98%of the Shiites and 14% of the Sunnis.

There is strong anti-American sentiment even among the Christians. The nationwide approval rating of the U.S. is only 25%, including only 39% of the Christians. To put it in perspective, that means the U.S. is significantly less popular among Lebanese Christians than Syria, equally as popular as Hezbollah and only a little bit more popular than Iran.

With its popularity and organizational prowess, Hezbollah is nicely positioned to benefit from the backlash against the Lebanese government. Hopefully, the Lebanese protestors will learn from the Egyptians' and Tunisians' experiences and stop the Islamists from riding their coattails to victory.


Ryan Mauro is ClarionProject.org’s national security analyst, a fellow with Clarion Project and an adjunct professor of homeland security. Mauro is frequently interviewed on top-tier television and radio. Read more, contact or arrange a speaking engagement.

Source: http://www.clarionproject.org/analysis/hezbollah-trying-overthrow-lebanese-government

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