by Yoav Limor
Had the Shiite group refrained from assigning blame for Badreddine's assassination, or had it alluded to Israeli involvement, it would have boxed itself into a situation where it would be expected to exact revenge.
The death of Hezbollah
commander Mustafa Badreddine on Thursday dealt Hezbollah a massive blow
-- the harshest since the Shiite terrorist group's operations chief Imad
Mughniyeh was killed in 2008. It is also one of the toughest setbacks
the group has suffered since the beginning of the Syrian civil war, five
years ago.
Badreddine was part of
Hezbollah's core group of founders; a veteran operative, who owed much
of his rise through the ranks to his brother-in-law -- Mughniyeh.
Badreddine was involved in almost every aspect of Hezbollah's
operations, making him a prime target for nearly every Western
intelligence agency.
Following Mughniyeh's
assassination, which was largely attributed to Israel, his
responsibilities were divided between several top Hezbollah officials,
including Badreddine, Talal Hamieh, and Hassan Laqqis, whose 2013
assassination was also attributed to Israel.
None of the three
possessed Mughniyeh's charisma or capabilities, so, relatively speaking,
the blow sustained by Badreddine's death was moderate, but it cannot be
discounted: Not only has Hezbollah lost yet another seasoned operative,
which is bound to create knowledge gaps along its top echelon,
Badreddine's assassination proved that once again, a mysterious entity
was able to penetrate the tight protection the Shiite group provides its
top officials, executed a surgical strike, and left no trace in its
wake.
This is why many
instinctively attributed Badreddine's death to Israel. Given the United
States' categorical denial of any involvement -- a bizarre statement in
and of itself -- who else can obtain such accurate intelligence and
carry out a precision strike like this?
It was only Hezbollah's
official statement saying the rebels were responsible for Thursday's
explosion in Damascus, effectively exonerating Israel from any
involvement in the incident, that somewhat de-escalated a situation that
was beginning to heat up.
That was precisely
Hezbollah's aim: After vowing to avenge Mughniyeh's and Laqqis'
assassinations, and reiterating its threats after the assassinations of
Jihad Mughniyeh in January 2015 and Samir Kuntar in December 2015,
Hezbollah attacked Israel, targeting Israeli forces on the northern
border. Had the Shiite group refrained from assigning blame for
Badreddine's assassination, or had it alluded to Israeli involvement, it
would have boxed itself into a situation where it would be expected to
exact revenge.
Hezbollah's decision to
publicly exonerate Israel from responsibility in this case reflects the
effectiveness of Israel's deterrence, as well as the pressure Hezbollah
is under in Lebanon. With over 1,500 fatalities and 8,000 casualties in
the Syrian civil war from among its own men, Hezbollah has been the
subject of scathing criticism in Lebanon. Stating that Badreddine was
killed by the Sunni enemy signals to Hezbollah's operatives and their
families that even the group's highest-ranking officials are taking an
active part in the war and are not immune to the most painful of
consequences.
In this respect,
Badreddine is yet another victim of the bloody civil war tearing through
Syria, with no end in sight. Hezbollah will continue to remain invested
in the conflict, heeding the orders of its Iranian patrons to send men
and arms to fight alongside the Syrian army, but that does not mean it
will take its eyes off Israel.
The fact that Hezbollah does not
hold Israel responsible for Badreddine's death represents one moment in
time, which may have temporarily deferred escalation on the northern
border, but both Israel and Hezbollah continue to prepare for such an
eventuality. It is, after all, only a matter of time.
Yoav Limor
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=16095
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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