by Mudar Zahran
The media are puzzled and rather clueless about what exactly is happening in my country, Jordan.
Days ago, King Abdullah II of Jordan dissolved the parliament and appointed a new prime minister.
This came weeks after
the king amended the constitution to expand his already swollen
authority as the sole ruler, and has launched a wave of speculation in
the Western and Israeli media. The media are puzzled and rather clueless
about what exactly is happening in my country, Jordan. Some, including
respected publications, jumped to the convenient conclusion that the
king has "appointed a pro-Israel prime minister" and even that "Israel
has a new friend in the Middle East, Jordan's prime minister." These
statements by themselves are irrelevant to the status quo and the
situation in Jordan is much more critical and dire than anyone in the
Israeli media realizes.
In November 2015, U.S.
presidential candidate Hillary Clinton said Jordan's future was "not
clear" and that Palestinians and Israelis needed to know what will
happen in Jordan and "whether Jordan will remain stable" before they
resume the peace process. Clinton's tenure as U.S. secretary of state
saw anti-regime protests in Jordan, particularly the November 2012
revolution, when a million Jordanians took to the streets demanding
that the Hashemite royals leave the country. She knows more about the
reality in Jordan from firsthand experience than any other U.S.
presidential candidate.
While Clinton's
statements cannot be taken as prophecies from the Torah or the Quran,
the facts on the ground do support her concerns for Jordan. As these
lines are being written, unrest continues in the Wadi Mousa-Petra area,
including gun battles between the king's police and the locals,
arrests, the destruction of vehicles and other property, stone
throwing, and rumors of casualties on both sides. In short, there is an
intifada at one of Jordan's most significant tourist sites.
In addition,
anti-regime protests take place every Friday, yards away from the
king's palace. Those protests are not continuous, but they are a
regular occurrence and likely to grow. Protests against Egyptian
President Hosni Mubarak began in the same way in 2004, and 10,000
protests later, a one-strike revolution toppled him in 2011, the same
year that the current protests in Jordan began.
Jordan's debt-to-GDP
ratio is above 90%. Greece's economy collapsed when it hit the same
rate, and the Jordanian regime is not getting the help from Arab states
that Greece got from the European Union. Nevertheless, the Jordanian
royal family spends beyond belief and is not shy about showing off its
opulent lifestyle to its starving subjects.
Less than a month ago,
Jordan's king visited our Saudi brothers and came back speaking about
billions of Saudi riyals "on the way." None of this has yet
materialized. While these things do take time, Saudi King Salman
announced a $25 billion aid package to the el-Sissi regime half an hour
after the king's arrival in Egypt in April.
There are also no signs
or news of aid money coming from the Gulf states. Our Arab brothers
are wise; they won't give their money to an ailing regime.
On the other hand, the
king has been fragile for years now, and many -- myself included -- have
predicted his fall, yet he remains on the throne in Amman. So why
should anyone worry that the king might fall now?
In fact, the situation has completely changed.
Today, Jordan's army is
independent of the king, and so is Jordan's intelligence service. Both
are tightly coordinated with the U.S. Central Command. When the Islamic
State group became a real threat to Jordan, the U.S. must have realized
it could no longer tolerate the king's recklessness, inexperienced
handling of security, and mismanagement of Jordan's military operations
and funds. Thus, the U.S. supported separating the army and
intelligence apparatus from the king's influence. This happened trough [sic]
tight and direct cooperation between the Jordanian and U.S. militaries,
and between Jordanian and U.S. intelligence agencies, particularly the
U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency.
This new arrangement
might explain the record-smooth cooperation between Jordan and Israel on
security, which is described in the Israeli media as "unprecedented."
Yes, it is unprecedented, because the king no longer has any influence
over the army or intelligence service.
Further, the U.S. has
announced it is about to finish building a massive security wall
separating Jordan from Syria and extending along the Iraqi borders.
This little-publicized wall will be fully operational in August,
according to its contractor, Raytheon, at a cost of over $500 million.
At the same time, Israel is quickly and publicly building a $1 billion
wall along its border with Jordan.
These measures, taken
by the U.S. and Jordanian armies, suggest that both are expecting major
change in Jordan. The outcome should be safe; Islamic State cannot take
over Jordan with thousands of American soldiers stationed in several
major U.S. bases across Jordan.
Meanwhile, Jordan's
king sees firsthand signs that his angry, hungry, and hopeless people
could actually topple him, and with him having no control over the army
now, the king could face a situation like that of Egypt's 2011
revolution, which was supported by the Egyptian army.
Afraid and helpless,
Jordan's regime has turned to the oldest trick in the book: beating the
Israeli drum. The regime knows that if a new intifada breaks out in
Israel, this could buy it more time in power; the world would be too
busy to let it go and Jordan's public would be distracted by
anti-Israel hatred once again. This might explain why an official
Israeli statement on Sept. 21, 2015, confirmed that "Jordan was a major
contributor to Temple Mount tension" and accused Jordan's government
of exacerbating tensions in Jerusalem with inciting statements and
actions.
In November 2014, I
published an article in which I warned that Jordan's regime was
planning to set the West Bank and Jerusalem on fire in order to stay in
power. Also, a month before the "knife intifada" broke out, I noted
several times on social media that Jordan's regime was going to launch
unrest in Jerusalem itself.
Change is coming to
Jordan. It could be tomorrow morning or in five years, but the
Hashemites already have a one-way ticket out, and it seems they are now
purposely causing damage to Jordanian, Palestinian, American and
Israeli interests.
It is about time the
few pro-Hashemite hopeless romantics wake up and smell the strong
Jordanian coffee already brewing in Amman.
As far as the Israeli
government is concerned, it has been clear from the beginning: The
Israelis will not be involved in the Arab Spring or its aftermath, and
will keep good ties with Jordan's regime, military and intelligence
agencies, without any involvement in Jordan's internal politics. As
Jordan's opposition, we highly appreciate Israel's stance and fully
understand it.
As we expect change in
Jordan, we must work hard to make sure Jordan remains committed to
peace while it becomes economically prosperous and gives hope to all its
citizens.
Mudar Zahran is secretary-general of the Jordanian Opposition Coalition. Twitter @mudar_zahran.
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=16289
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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