by Prof. Eyal Zisser
As Israel is gaining strength in the region and deepening and improving ties with its neighbors -- with Egypt, Jordan, Turkey and maybe even Saudi Arabia -- Hamas is left without effective support
Last week, as Israel
marked two years since Operation Protective Edge, Hamas leader Khaled
Mashaal surprised everyone with a dramatic declaration, at least in
Hamas terms, wherein he said his organization would be prepared to
recognize Israel and even reach an agreement with it.
We must treat Mashaal's
submissive and moderate statement with due caution, because in the same
breath, he determined that a condition for reaching such an agreement
with Israel would include the return of Palestinian refugees to the
homes that they left during the Independence War in 1948. Moreover, we
must also remember that Hamas leaders have announced in the past their
willingness to reach a "hudna," or a prolonged cease-fire with Israel
without committing to a peace deal that would promise an end to
Palestinian demands of Israel or an end to the historic conflict with
it.
But in the case of
Mashaal's current declaration, the tone and the tune are just as
important as the content. Indeed, the submissive, whining tone in which
he spoke tells more than anything of the distress Hamas is facing and of
Mashaal's desire to maintain calm between his organization and Israel.
It's important to note
that at a time when in Israel the internal political argument over the
government and military's management leading up to Operation Protective
Edge is heating up, there is unprecedented calm along the Gaza border
itself, certainly when considering the period since the disengagement in
2005.
This calm is the direct
result of Operation Protective Edge, and at the same time, of the
regional reality that Israel and Hamas have found themselves in. As
Israel is gaining strength in the region and deepening and improving
ties with its neighbors -- with Egypt, Jordan, Turkey and maybe even
Saudi Arabia -- Hamas is left without effective support and with a
neighborhood that views it suspiciously and with hostility. Truthfully,
over the last two years, Hamas has rehabilitated much of its military
capabilities that were damaged during the 2014 campaign. This is why
many believe that another conflict with Hamas, just as with Hezbollah,
is only a matter of time.
But any attempt to
compare Hamas to Hezbollah is mere flattery to Hamas, making it seem
much greater and more powerful than it really is. Hamas does not have
the depth of Hezbollah -- not the depth of support among the local
population, not the geographic depth of Lebanon's territory and not the
depth of political and military support from its direct neighbors, Syria
and through it, Iran.
This reality leaves
Hamas exposed to Israel, and to a large extent, dependent on its good
will. Moreover, this reality makes it possible for Israel to decide one
day to simply wipe out the entity that is Hamas. Israel's problem in the
Gaza Strip is not dealing with Hamas's military power, but dealing with
the consequences of the chaos that would break out there if the Hamas
regime were to collapse.
The issue of Gaza has
completely fallen off the international agenda, and with the
normalization of relations between Israel and Turkey, it seems to have
been buried for good. Hamas's capability to maintain its presence in the
Gaza Strip, which has become a Middle Eastern anomaly in light of the
defeat of Islamists in the region, is dependent on continued calm and on
its effort to help Gaza's residents move forward. If it cannot do this,
Hamas's rule will crumble, with or without another military campaign.
Prof. Eyal Zisser
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=16829
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