by Ran Meir
The September 20 election signals a return to parliament for Islamist lawmakers, but this could mean increased stability for the country.
Jordanian Islamists will
return to parliament after a 10-year hiatus following an election on
September 20. It‘s not yet clear how many seats the Islamist bloc will
take, however, their return to office does not necessarily mean problems
for the monarchy.
The
Islamists boycotted the polls in 2010 and 2013 arguing that the
electoral system worked against their interests. A change in the voting
system led the group to stand for election this time around.
In an election that would seem odd to most Westerners, some 226 parties competed for just 130 seats in the legislature.
The
election took place in the shadow of rising unemployment, fears of a
spillover of fighting from Syria and Iraq and the hosting of myriad
refugees.
Initial
results suggest the National Coalition for Reform bloc (a joint list
with the Islamist party, the Islamic Action Front, as the largest
member) will take some 13-16 seats. The bloc is likely to be the largest
opposition bloc in the new parliament.
The question is whether or not this return poses a threat to King Abdullah.
Initially
there does not appear to be a direct threat – indeed this might even
create greater stability in the Hashemite kingdom.
The
vote was for the lower house, whose main functions are to pass laws,
approve the state budget and show confidence in the government. However,
the upper house in parliament has seniority and can block legislation
that emanates from the lower house. The upper house and government are
appointed by Abdullah, an absolute monarch.
The king also controls the appointment of judges and intelligence officials without requiring governmental approval.
The
monarch derives his power from tribal loyalty and some officials from
the Islamic Action Front are members of these tribes. There is a common
interest, therefore, in Islamist participations in the elections.
Islamists
hoped the Arab Spring coupled with the boycott of the previous
elections would increase their popularity, while diminishing the
popularity of the king. However, with time, they understood Abdullah
remained strong, while they were losing ground.
Simultaneously, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Libya were in decline.
Jordan’s Islamists understood they now have the opportunity to return to the political fore to be a more fighting opposition.
Abdullah
told the U.N. General Assembly last week the election was a true
victory given current events in Jordan and the surrounding countries.
Both he and Queen Rania said they welcomed the participation of
Islamists in the election.
Initial
analysis suggests Abdullah is the big winner here because Islamist
participation in the elections shows they realize they have to
participate in a system of government which is monarch-dominated.
Essentially, they have given the monarchy a renewed vote of confidence.
With the Islamists in parliament, the king will also be able to better monitor Islamist activities in the country.
All
in all, at least in the short term, King Abdullah can heave a sigh of
relief, particularly as the Islamist bloc was tipped to win as many as
20 seats. And while the terror threat is never far away from Jordan, on
the political level, Abdullah knows he has stability for some time to
come.
Ran Meir is Clarion Project's Arab Affairs Analyst
Source: http://www.clarionproject.org/analysis/ran-meir
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