by Dr. Reuven Berko
After it turned out that Assad was still using chemical weapons against his own citizens, the secretary of state should have realized that his own ethical mentality is more appropriate to Hollywood than to the Middle East.
As was to be expected,
the Syrian cease-fire agreement signed between Russia and the Americans
wasn't worth the paper it was written on. The escalation could be
attributed to the fact that the Americans continued, as per the
agreement, to bomb Islamic State group and Jabhat Fateh al-Sham targets,
as terrorist organizations that were not signatories to the cease-fire,
thus "violating Syrian sovereignty," as the regime of Syrian President
Bashar Assad claims.
On the other hand, the
Russians and Syrians also continued bombing opposition strongholds,
including population centers, despite the agreement, claiming that the
rebels were preparing to attack and that the Americans had failed to
distinguish between moderate opposition players and Islamist terrorist
groups. Not only that -- taking advantage of the cease-fire to improve
their positions, the Syrians (and their patrons) attacked a humanitarian
aid convoy and kept it from reaching besieged areas, in violation of
the agreements.
So in the end, in a
conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, U.S. Secretary
of State John Kerry wound up criticizing the delay in the aid to the
besieged areas, the delivery of which would have been a condition -- had
the cease-fire lasted a week -- for the Russians and the Americans to
launch a joint series of attacks against Islamic State. The Russians
claimed that the Americans were helping Islamic State. As a player of
growing influence, the Russians want to hide their contempt for the
American superpower that is present but absent. To Kerry's credit, it
appears that he truly believes in people and in agreements. This is how
he has conducted his naive, worrying negotiations with the Iranians and
the Palestinians, for example. After it turned out that Assad was still
using chemical weapons against his own citizens, the secretary of state
should have realized that his own ethical mentality is more appropriate
to Hollywood than to the Middle East.
If we were to joke
about it, we might say it's a good thing the Americans made a "mistake"
and bombed the Syrian army, or that Kerry's naivete about this most
recent agreement might have reached new heights. Luckily, the
Russian-Syrian violations were followed by the coalition forces' "random
and unfortunate" bombing of a Syrian army base in Dir a-Zur, in which
dozens of Syrian soldiers were killed. There is an Arab proverb that
says: "Chance is better than a thousand appointments made in advance."
The message of the "mistake" was better than a thousand limp
condemnations from Kerry over the course of the escalation, and it
appeared that the Americans had undergone a backbone transplant. Fact:
As a result of the "mistake," the Russians demanded a discussion of the
matter in the U.N. Security Council and starting giving the Americans
some credit.
The Americans are busy
with the presidential elections and are therefore sitting out the
volatile situation in the Middle East. Even they can see the direction
things are taking in Iran, Syria and Russia, but the Arab-Islamic-Sunni
alternative is a weak one, too divided and steeped in terrorism to make
it a strategic option. Unlike the Americans, who are lost in their
attempts to put together an orderly plan based on a diplomatic vision,
the opposing players -- through trial and error -- are improving their
positions during the current window of opportunity, understanding that
this coming January a new American administration will be in place.
In the meantime, the Iranians and
the Russians are on a honeymoon of shared temporary interests --
namely, influence in the region in which the Sykes-Picot countries are
falling apart. Jordan and the Gulf states are in their sights, and Egypt
has opted to support Assad over the Islamists. At some point, Israel
will need to decide which fatal disease better fits our view of regional
security and deterrence: the Iranian, Syrian, Russian and Hezbollah
axis of evil or the semi-national Islamist terrorist organizations.
Dr. Reuven Berko
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=17233
Follow Middle East and Terrorism on Twitter
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
No comments:
Post a Comment