by Prof. Eyal Zisser
A glance at the details of the agreement reveals a lack of real content and a near-zero chance of implementation
In an apparent set
ritual, futile and pointless, the Russian and American foreign ministers
have announced for the umpteenth time that a deal has been reached to
end the war waging in Syria. The first step in this deal is a cease-fire
set to begin on Monday.
A glance at the details
of the agreement reveals a lack of real content and a near-zero chance
of implementation. Firstly, the deal fails to include a large portion of
the rebel camp, most notably the Islamic State group and the Nusra
Front, and we can assume that the Syrian regime will be quick to violate
the terms of the deal, justifying it with the claim that it is fighting
these radical rebel groups.
Secondly, the agreement
does not include any framework or practical steps to jump-start or
advance a political process, nor anything that would help close the gap
among rebel demands. It also does not include any steps to mediate
between the desire of the international community, led by Washington, to
oust Syrian President Bashar Assad and Russia's desire to keep him in
power.
Beyond this, no one
among the warring sides in Syria has any interest in a deal. Assad is
convinced that time plays to his advantage. The Russians, Iranians and
Hezbollah, who are fighting Assad's war, have managed significant
accomplishments in recent months. In the battle over Aleppo, on which
they imposed a siege, they brought the Syrian ruler closer to victory --
even if not total or decisive -- against his opposition.
The important part of
the deal is the Russian-American declaration of a joint effort to combat
terrorism. Here too, there is nothing behind the fancy words. The
United States is already making every effort to fight Islamic State, and
given the lack of trust between the sides, it is doubtful that the
Russians can or want to help. After all, Islamic State is not among the
Russian list of priorities in Syria. The Russians are instead concerned
about the moderate rebel groups that the U.S. supports, and which pose a
threat to Assad's rule in western Syria.
This Russian-American
deal came about three years after the September 2013 deal to rid Syria
of chemical weapons. Yet, just last week, a U.N. report indicated that
over the past year, Assad has used chemical weapons against his
opponents -- weapons that he supposedly did not have.
The American silence
following this finding was impressive. It attested that the American
administration is desperate to portray at any price to the media and to
the public that there has been progress toward a solution to the Syrian
crisis.
But America is not
willing to impose the full weight of the deal to ensure success or to
work against those who try to make it fail. At the end of the day, what
can we really expect from the confusion and incompetence that now
characterize Washington's path in the Middle East?
In contrast, Russia is
moving forward in its effort to attain the status of a leading
superpower in the Middle East. If the Russian attempt to host a meeting
in Moscow between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian
Authority President Mahmoud Abbas succeeds, it will only be further
proof that to achieve results in the region, one must go through Moscow,
and not Washington as in the past.
Prof. Eyal Zisser
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=17157
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