by Prof. Eyal Zisser
more than anything, the Russian move is meant to test the incoming U.S. president, how he will react to Putin's attempts to "mark the perimeters" and establish facts on the ground in Syria, and obviously in additional regions in crisis around the world later on
Mere hours after
Russian President Vladmir Putin and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump
spoke on the phone for the first time and agreed to work together and
bolster ties between the two countries, Putin ordered his military to
attack the key city of Aleppo in Syria's north in order to conquer the
second largest city in the country and destroy the rebel insurgency
there.
Even those who have
grown accustomed to the unprecedented breadth and aggressiveness of the
Russian military presence in Syria, and particularly to Russia's use of
unrestrained force, could not help but be impressed by the Russian
display of power directed at Aleppo. For the first time, this included
the use of the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, which the Russians
deployed to Syria's shores as part of a large-scale reinforcement of its
forces in our region. The Russian message is clear: Russia is in Syria
to stay, and this is but the first step on its path to resurrecting the
Soviet Union's role as a world power with areas of influence subject to
its dictates and wishes -- although this time under the regime of a new
czar instead of a party secretary.
Nevertheless, it is
clear that even if Russia's immediate target was Aleppo, or more
precisely, what remains of it, the more important objective was to send a
warning to Syria's neighbors, including Turkey and Israel that they
should not dare to get in the way of Russia and its endeavors. But more
than anything, the Russian move is meant to test the incoming U.S.
president, how he will react to Putin's attempts to "mark the
perimeters" and establish facts on the ground in Syria, and obviously in
additional regions in crisis around the world later on.
The decisive attack on
the city of Aleppo was a necessary step whose time had come in the
Russian plan to secure Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime in western
Syria. In recent months, the allies -- Russia, Iran and Syria -- have
succeeded in closing off the city and cutting off the rebels from their
supply route to Turkey in the country's north and areas under rebel
control in the country's west. The city was methodically flattened by
Russian bomber jets, and only a quarter of the 4 million residents who
lived there before the outbreak of the civil war remain. What remains is
to deal a deathblow and "cleanse" the city of the rebels and their
supporters, as Assad promised in an interview a few weeks back.
For that, Russian
planes will not suffice. It will require Iranian and Hezbollah soldiers
to fight on the ground, with Syria's active military trailing behind
them. One can assume that after the pounding from the air, an attack
will be made on the ground. The media has been reporting preparations
for just such an attack in recent days.
Putin would like to
establish facts on the ground before the new chief enters the White
House. Trump is projecting a willingness to cooperate with the Russians
and fight together, possibly even with Assad, against the Islamic
radicalism he sees as a central threat to the U.S. in the region. But
when he enters the White House and seeks to differentiate himself from
the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama, which is perceived
both within and outside the region as weak and absent, he may desire to
show Putin that there is in fact only one boss, and he resides in the
White House, not the Kremlin.
The Obama
administration is morally responsible for the events in Aleppo, since,
other than condemning Russia for what his spokesmen called its "barbaric
actions," the American administration has done nothing in recent months
to stop the assault on the city. But now the ball is rolling into
Trump's court.
Putin is displaying strength, but
behind this strength is a country dealing with significant economic
difficulties, and in any case, it is clear that the U.S. is much
stronger. The Russians are counting on their ability to deter the enemy
from confrontation, and thereby force them to give in. Indeed, in every
case in which the Americans chose to confront the Russians in recent
years, they won. Putin knows this, and all that remains to be seen is if
Trump will learn this basic fact.
Prof. Eyal Zisser
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=17691
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