by MEMRI
[Saudis] are expecting the next four years to bring U.S. action aimed at weakening Iran and supporting Saudi policy, and at strengthening U.S.-Saudi ties as well as U.S. ties with other Sunni countries.
The
beginning of the presidency of Donald Trump in the U.S. generated
optimism in Saudi Arabia about the new American administration. This was
especially the case in light of the previous presidency, that of Barack
Obama, during which the U.S. and Saudi Arabia grew apart, and the Obama
administration's measures in the Middle East that were contradictory to
Saudi political positions – the apex of which was the JCPOA agreement.
Although
during the elections the Saudis expressed no explicit support for
Trump, since his inauguration they are expecting the next four years to
bring U.S. action aimed at weakening Iran and supporting Saudi policy,
and at strengthening U.S.-Saudi ties as well as U.S. ties with other
Sunni countries.
These
Saudi expectations have been bolstered by some anti-Iran statements
made and measures taken by the new U.S. administration. Among other
things, President Trump attacked the JCPOA, calling it a bad deal that
saved Iran from bankruptcy,[1] and Secretary of Defense James Mattis stated that Iran the world's "biggest state sponsor of terrorism."[2]President Trump also tweeted criticism of Iran's takeover of increasingly large parts of Iraq.[3]Additionally,
following the January 30, 2017 attack by the Iranian-backed Houthis on a
Saudi frigate on the Yemeni border, the U.S. deployed the USS Cole to the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb off the coast of Yemen.[4]Furthermore,
according to recent reports, the administration is considering
designating Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a
terrorist organization.[5]
Saudi
expectations of U.S. policy under Donald Trump and praise for the new
administration and its perceived policies are being expressed in
statements by Saudi officials as well as in numerous articles and
cartoons in the Saudi press. Additionally, many of the articles
discussing the administration predicted that future American moves in
the Middle East would serve Saudi interests, particularly in its rivalry
with Iran.
This
report will review comments by Saudi officials, as well as excerpts
from articles in the Saudi press published since President Trump's
inauguration, reflecting this Saudi optimism vis-à-vis the new U.S.
administration.
Trump takes aim at Iran (Al-Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, February 6, 2017)
Saudi Officials: Trump's Aggressive Messages To Iran Are A Welcome Change
The
compatibility between the political positions of the Trump
administration and Saudi Arabia's desire to weaken Iran and consolidate
its image as fighting terrorism were clearly expressed in a January 29,
2017 phone conversation between President Trump and Saudi King Salman.
According to the White House, the two agreed that the JCPOA must be
"rigorously enforced," and that Iranian actions that destabilize the
Middle East should be addressed. They also agreed to bolster their joint
efforts to combat the spread of radical Islamic terrorism.[6]
A Saudi news agency report on the conversation also stated that
President Trump and King Salman see eye to eye on the issues of the
fight against terrorism and its financing, and that they discussed the
U.S.-Saudi strategic partnership and its economic, security, and
military aspects.[7]
These same topics were raised in another phone call, on January 31,
between Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman and U.S. Secretary
of Defense James Mattis, in which the two discussed the implementation
of the previous conversation between the two leaders on U.S.-Saudi
strategic cooperation, the fight against terrorism, and opposition to
Iranian interference in Middle East affairs.[8]
Saudi
Arabia's enthusiasm about the new American administration was clearly
discernable in comments by Saudi officials, chiefly Deputy Crown Prince
Muhammad bin Salman and Foreign Minister 'Adel Al-Jubeir, before and
after Trump's inauguration, expressing overt support for the U.S. and
hostility towards Iran.
Thus, on January 9, 2017, some two weeks before Trump's inauguration, Deputy Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman told Foreign Affairs
magazine in an interview that he was interested in renewing the
strategic dialogue between the countries, which under Obama had stopped
for reasons that were not clear.[9]
Similarly, in a January 15 press conference, Al-Jubeir said that Saudi
Arabia has no fear of Trump, but seeks the same thing he seeks in
fighting terrorism and in firmness vis-à-vis Iran.[10]
In a separate press conference in Riyadh, on January 24, Al-Jubeir said
that Saudi Arabia supports the vision of President Trump, who seeks to
combat ISIS and block Iran, adding that Saudi-U.S. relations are
longstanding, as is their ongoing cooperation in security, politics, and
economics. He also said that Saudi Arabia yearns for a positive
American future worldwide.[11]
Speaking
at the Munich Security Conference on February 19, 2017, Al-Jubeir
praised Trump, calling him "a pragmatic man who seeks to solve crises
and lead the world, and who acts to close any loophole that terrorist
organizations could exploit." He added: "Just like us, he believes that
we must get rid of ISIS, and the officials he appointed to his
administration have a lot of experience and are highly capable.
Therefore, we expect to see American involvement [in Middle East issues]
and rational foreign policy..." Al-Jubeir also echoed the Trump
administration's designation of Iran as the country that sponsors
terrorism more than any other in the world.[12]
Trump declares Iran "No. 1 Terrorist" ('Okaz, Saudi Arabia, February 8, 2017)
The following day, Al-Jubeir added to his praise for Trump and his policy, in an interview with the German daily Der Spiegel,
in which he said that Trump was realistic and not crazy, and that the
Saudis share his goals of combatting terrorism and upping the pressure
on Iran. As for Trump's ban on entry to the U.S. for citizens of seven
Muslim countries, Al-Jubeir said that the decision did not target Saudi
Arabia and that in any case the Saudis respect Washington's right to
oversee all those who come into the country. He added that Saudi Arabia
was optimistic and was expecting more cooperation with the U.S. than in
the past, and that Trump's aggressive messages to Iran were a welcome
change.[13]
Saudi Press: High Expectations From The Trump Administration's Anti-Iran Policies
Saudi
expectations of closer relations with the new American administration
and of a stronger regional status for Saudi Arabia were also widely
expressed in the Saudi press. News of Saudi-American contacts and
anti-Iran moves by the U.S. made the front pages of official Saudi
newspapers. Several editorials and op-eds praised the U.S. policy under
Trump, and predicted that Iran faced a bitter fate if it continued its
attempts to influence political conflicts in the Middle East, and
offered other predictions on moves Trump could make in Iraq and Yemen
that would also serve Saudi interests. Many cartoons also focused on the
substantial American pressure on Iran.
On
the other hand, several articles in the Saudi press also called for
tempering expectations from the Trump administration, arguing that
Saudis must first wait and see what Trump will actually do, beyond his
hawkish statements.
Front page of the official Saudi daily Al-Riyadh for February 8, 2017: "The Servant of the Two Holy Sites [King Salman] And Trump Stress Solid Relations [Between The Countries] And Set Dates For Reciprocal Visits"
Front page of the official Saudi daily Al-Watan for February 5, 2017 shows an infographic detailing "Policy Agreed-Upon By Republicans And Democrats Regarding Iran"
Editorials:
Trump's Administration "Will Have No Patience With Iran," Is "Not
Ruling Out The Possibility Of Military Action Against" It
Editorials
in the official Saudi press were openly delighted by Trump's stern
messages to Iran, and presented assessments that his U.S. policy would
be more aggressive towards Iran than the Obama administration's –
particularly with regard to enforcing the JCPOA. Thus, the Saudi daily 'Okaz
wrote in an editorial: "It has become clear that the American
administration of President Donald Trump will have no patience with
Iran. Apparently, [Iran] considered the 'bribes' that it received from
the previous president, Barack Obama, in order to arrive at an agreement
on its nuclear program to be an American weakness from which Washington
would never recover. [But now] it is clear to the American
administration that Iran is engaged in activity aimed at destabilizing
[the region], that it is seeking to harm U.S. allies, and that it is
violating the UN ban on supplying [arms] to revolutionary militias in
Yemen. The [January 30, 2017] attempt [by the Iranian-backed Houthis in
Yemen] to blow up a Saudi frigate off the coast of Yemen and the
[January 29, 2017] test [launching] of a ballistic missile against the
Gulf states were a step too far, and Washington could no longer remain
silent as it had under Obama.
"Therefore,
[then-]National Security advisor Michael Flynn spoke sternly and warned
that the U.S. would absolutely not remain silent over Iran's suspicious
activities, and President Trump later reminded the Khamenei regime, in a
tweet, that Iran would have been on the verge of collapse without the
funds sent by Obama on the pretext that these were frozen Iranian funds.
"These
developments are coming in the wake of a phone conversation between
King Salman and Trump... and also after a follow-up phone conversation
between Deputy Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman and Secretary of State
Jim Matthews [sic; James Mattis], in which they agreed that Iran's
terror activity, which aims to destabilize [certain] countries and
interfere in their [internal] affairs, whether directly or via its
agents and proxies [in those countries], must be dealt with. Another
interesting thing was Trump's tweet from yesterday [February 2, 2017]
regarding Iranian hegemony in Iraq, which he said is increasing every
day. These are all signs that this will be a critical year for the lies
and threats by Iran, which is trapped in delusions of joining the
nuclear club and in dreams of gnawing away at the Arabian Peninsula and
the Fertile Crescent."[14]
"Trump" gives "Iran" no choice but to reverse course (Makkah, Saudi Arabia, February 12, 2017)
Al-Riyadh made
similar arguments in an editorial, even predicting a possible U.S.-Iran
military conflict: "The air of escalation in the Washington-Tehran
discourse is continuing, and is exacerbated by the tweets by
American President, Donald Trump... He accused Iran of 'playing with
fire' and added: '[T]hey don't appreciate how 'kind' president Obama was
to them. Not me!' This shows that Trump will not continue in his
predecessor's footsteps in dealing with the Iranian dossier; rather, he
will be stricter about the implementation of the nuclear agreement and
will make no concessions on the path to blocking Iran [from attaining
nuclear weapons]. This is especially true since Washington considers
Tehran a major supporter of terrorism, in both the region and the world.
"The
characteristics of Trump's view on dealing with the Iranian regime were
clarified by his previous tweets, in which he called the nuclear
agreement 'terrible.' This shows that he is completely dissatisfied with
this agreement and is searching for a way that will allow him to cancel
it. He is also not ruling out the possibility of military action
against the Iranian regime. Thus, all signs point to the new American
administration sooner or later entering into direct conflict with the
Iranian regime, and there is no better evidence for this than the
economic sanctions against 13 Iranian individuals and 12 Iranian
companies – a first step that will surely be followed by more that are
no less aggressive..."[15]
Saudi
Columnist: The Trump Administration's Position Towards Iran Is
Identical To That Of The Gulf States; Muslim Brotherhood Could Be
Designated A Terrorist Organization
High
hopes for anti-Iran action by the Trump administration were also
expressed in op-eds by many Saudi writers. Muhammad Aal Al-Sheikh, a
columnist for the Saudi daily Al-Jazirah, also argued that the
new American administration would be harsher on Iran and would also act
decisively against political Islam movements, particularly the Muslim
Brotherhood (MB). He wrote: "All signs point to the fact that the
Iranians, and the Arabs who follow in their path, have rough years ahead
of them. We can also expect the MB to be classified as a terrorist
organization, so that its supporters will be persecuted and pressured,
just like members of the terrorist organization Hizbullah.
"It
is clear to all that the position of President Trump and his
administration officials on Iran's ayatollahs is the same as the
position that the Gulf [countries] attempted to persuade President Obama
[to adopt]. But [Obama] and his administration insisted on disregarding
all these Gulf efforts and blatantly ignored Iran's terrorist activity
and the expansion it and its militias were carrying out in the region...
According to many analysts, a harsh phase of economic sanctions [on
Iran] by the Trump administration will strangle its domestic economy
once again, particularly because President Trump, unlike President
Obama, is a man who 'does what he says he will do'... I do not believe
that President Trump will use military force to punish the Persian
ayatollahs, but Iran will likely suffocate from a collection of [U.S.]
decisions that constitute economic siege, which is like a slow death for
countries nowadays...
"Saudi
Arabia and the Gulf countries suffered greatly during President Obama's
two terms, and the Arab world also suffered from what the Americans
called 'the Arab Spring.' It seems as though that phase is now a part of
history, with Obama's departure and Hillary Clinton's election loss.
Based on the fact that Trump and his team took a stand against terrorism
and are acting to uproot it and all its elements – as [Trump] promised
he would do – I can say that ultimately political Islam, both Sunni and
Shi'ite, will become a target for elimination, in order to destroy
terrorism..."[16]
The American eagle, with Trump on board, pecks away at "Iran's missile program" (Makkah, Saudi Arabia, February 6, 2017)
Former Al-Sharq Al-Awsat Editor: Trump Must Take Steps Against Iran In Order To Protect American Interests
Salman Al-Dosari, a former editor of the London-based Saudi daily Al-Sharq Al-Awsat,
proposed a series of anti-Iran steps for the new American
administration that would protect its interests in the region and that
are also largely in line with Saudi interests there. He wrote:
"Washington has four cards it can use to isolate Iran: The first is to
raise the price Iran [pays] for continuing its intransigence, and
focusing on meticulously implementing the nuclear agreement, instead of
canceling it, at least for now. This will ensure that Iran's ability to
produce a nuclear bomb does not increase, and also that the 'biggest
state sponsor of terrorism,' as Washington calls it, will be deterred.
The second card is to cancel the disaster of handing Iraq over to Iran,
since this is what gave the Iranian government, and its militias and
proxies, free rein to expand in the region and threaten American
interests...
"The
third card is to include Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and
its associate organizations in the list of terrorist organizations.
Since they are not so designated, they are sowing terrible destruction
and chaos, and harming American interests, under an official umbrella
that allows them [to do] what other terrorist organizations like ISIS
and Al-Qaeda cannot.
"The
fourth card is to tighten the noose on Iran's aid to [Houthi]
revolutionaries in Yemen – an element threatening peace and promoting
chaos in that country, [which persists] so long as [Iran's] weapons
shipments to its allies in Yemen continue in violation of the UN ban on
weapons transfers. This [Iranian] activity is also a direct provocation
against UN [Security Council] Resolution 2231, which codifies the
nuclear agreement, and is a clear example of Iran's lack of serious
commitment to the agreement. If Tehran continues to violate the nuclear
agreement, the U.S. will have no choice but to distance itself from the
agreement.
"It
should be mentioned that the U.S.'s new anti-Iran policy does not mean a
desire for or encouragement of war, since no side is interested in such
a war. However, the new American administration is clearly aware of the
serious danger that Iran poses to its interests...
"The
future will apparently bring an increase in the level of conflict, so
that it is indeed less than a war, but [will be conducted] by means that
are sufficient to largely thwart Iran's activity."
(Al-Watan, Saudi Arabia, February 5, 2017)
Criticism Of High Expectations From Trump: He Is No Different From His Predecessors; There Is No Change On The Ground
Alongside
the many articles expressing joy and optimism about Trump's Middle East
policy, particularly his intentions regarding Iran, several writers
called to temper expectations and wait for the American administration
to take actual steps that promote Saudi interests. For example, 'Abd
Al-Aziz Al-Sweid, a writer for the London-based Saudi daily Al-Hayat,
wrote: "The American administration is conducting a media campaign
against the ayatollah regime in Iran, but [this campaign] is confined to
statements made by the president and by his aides, who repeat his
words. As for the sanctions levelled [by the U.S.] on companies tied to
Iran – this is nothing new, since the previous American administration
did the same thing gradually, but at the same time also gave Iran
hundreds of millions of dollars, worked with it in Iraq, and promoted
its [Houthi] agent in Yemen.
"In
a short time, the Trump administration issued a new batch of dire
statements against Iran, to the point that it seemed to anyone following
Trump that he was riding his dark horse while drawing his two pistols
in Khamenei's face! This new batch [of statements] is nothing but
political narcotics, which are different in quality from those used by
Kerry and Obama. The reality we face does not herald changes on the
ground. American forces still operate side-by-side with the IRGC in
Iraq. Two days ago, an IRGC official was killed in Mosul. Was he
operating far from the binoculars of American troops? If Trump is so
extreme, why does he continue to allow, or not to oppose, the barbaric
crimes that the sectarian PMU [in Iraq] and its leaders from Khamenei's
IRGC commit against Sunni Iraqi citizens, including children and
elderly, under the pretext that they are terrorists?!"[17]
[1] Twitter.com/realDonaldTrump, February 2, 2017.
[2] Al-Youm (Saudi Arabia), February 5, 2017.
[3] Twitter.com/realDonaldTrump, February 1, 2017.
[4] Al-Quds Al-Arabi (London), February 5, 2017.
[5] Al-Watan (Saudi Arabia), February 7, 2017; Al-Sharq (Saudi Arabia), February 9, 2017.
[6] Whitehouse.gov, January 29, 2017.
[7] Al-Quds Al-Arabi (London), January 30, 2017.
[8] Al-Hayat (London), February 1, 2017.
[9] 'Okaz (Saudi Arabia), January 9, 2017.
[10] Elaph.com, January 20, 2017.
[11] Al-Watan (Saudi Arabia), January 25, 2017.
[12] Alarabiya.net, February 19, 2017.
[13]
T.arabi21.com, February 20, 2017. For more on Saudi Arabia's attitude
regarding Trump's Executive Order, see MEMRI Inquiry & Analysis No.
1299, Arab
World Split Over President Trump's Executive Order Suspending Entry Of
Citizens From Arab And Islamic Countries Into The U.S., February 7, 2017.
[14] 'Okaz (Saudi Arabia), February 3 2017.
[15] Al-Riyadh (Saudi Arabia), February 4, 2017.
[16] Al-Jazirah (Saudi Arabia), February 5, 2017.T
[17] Al-Hayat (London), February 7, 2017.
MEMRI
Source: https://www.memri.org/reports/saudis-optimistic-trump-administrations-middle-east-policy-express-hope-it-will-act-against
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