Sunday, August 20, 2017

Quo vadis the Arab tsunami ‎- Yoram Ettinger




by Yoram Ettinger

Acquaintance with Middle East "modernization" highlights the critical role of ‎the posture of deterrence -- while avoiding appeasement and retreats in the ‎face of temptations and pressure



Where is the Arab Middle East headed? Now after the ‎disintegration of Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen and Sudan? After the toppling of ‎several Arab regimes? After the estimated 400,000 fatalities and 6 million ‎refugees resulting from intra-Arab conflicts? After the proliferation of Islamic ‎Sunni terrorism? After the unprecedented power-projection surge by Iran's ayatollahs? After the Sunni and Shiite terrorist machetes at the throat ‎of the House of Saud and all other pro-U.S. Arab regimes? And after the intensified ‎violation of human rights in every Arab country, all ruled by minority ‎regimes?‎

The raging Arab tsunami -- popularly referred to as the Arab Spring -- of the last six and a half years has further destabilized the one-bullet, ‎provisional Arab regimes, characterized by tenuous policies and uncertain ‎bilateral and multilateral intra-Arab agreements.

This has added much fuel to the fire of the ‎inherently unpredictable and intensely complex, non-nation-state, non‎democratic Middle East, which has been systematically misperceived by the ‎Western establishment.‎
Where is the Arab tsunami heading? The chaotic intra-Arab roller-coaster ‎may have shifted, temporarily, to a relatively lower gear, but it is brutally surging on.

By dealing a severe blow to Islamic State terrorists in 2017 without ‎clipping the wings of Iran's ayatollahs , the U.S. has provided a tailwind ‎to Iran's entrenchment in Syria, and increasingly in Lebanon. It has ‎advanced the ayatollahs' domination of the critical area from the Persian ‎Gulf to the Mediterranean, which is a prelude to Iran's megalomaniacal vision ‎of denying the U.S. "modern-day-Crusader" regional and global pre-eminence. ‎

This could be a repeat of the U.S. toppling of Saddam Hussein in 2003, when ‎the U.S. elevated Iraq's Shiites, dumping Iraq's Sunnis, which ‎reinforced the ranks of Sunni terrorism. This paved the way for the ayatollahs' dominance in Iraq -- which intensified anti-U.S. terrorism -- and ‎created a clear and present danger for every pro-U.S. Arab regime in the ‎Persian Gulf and beyond.‎

In 2011, a U.S.-led coalition toppled Moammar Gadhafi‎'s rogue regime in Libya, despite the fact that Gadhafi‎ was involved in a ferocious war against Islamic terrorism ‎in Libya and Africa. Moreover, in 2003, Gadhafi‎ transferred his infrastructure ‎of weapons of mass destruction to the U.S. The toppling of Gadhafi‎ ‎accelerated the disintegration of Libya, transforming the huge country ‎‎(680,000 square miles, two and a half times the size of Texas) into a major safe haven and ‎breeding ground for Islamic terrorism.‎

While the U.S. military power projection and posture of deterrence are ‎prerequisites for the Western battle against Islamic terrorism -- and keeping ‎Islamic terrorism away from the U.S. mainland -- a misguided U.S. policy has ‎tolerated the ayatollahs' imperialism, subversion and terrorism, allowing ‎them to surge on the coattails of the 2015 nonratified Iran nuclear deal, ‎further destabilizing the Middle East.‎

For example, tectonic developments simmer below the seemingly stable ‎surface in Jordan. These developments are ‎generated and bolstered by the 60% Palestinian majority. Examples include the 1951 ‎murder of King Abdullah by a Palestinian, the 1970 civil war, the 1980s ‎Hashemite-Palestinian confrontations); the unpredictable Muslim ‎Brotherhood terrorists; the importation of additional Sunni Islamic terrorist ‎sleeper cells; the historical divisiveness between the Hashemite migrants ‎from the Arabian Peninsula and the indigenous Bedouin; the 1.5 million Syrian ‎refugees; the boiling borders with Iraq and Syria, which increasingly ‎accommodate the anti-Hashemite ayatollahs.‎

A volcanic eruption in Jordan could spill over, swiftly, into neighboring Saudi ‎Arabia and other pro-U.S. Arab countries, which are threatened by the ayatollahs and home-grown terrorists. This would impact the life ‎expectancy of the ruling House of Khalifa in Bahrain, as well as the level of violent ‎Muslim Brotherhood opposition to the Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi regime in Egypt.‎

Where is the Middle East heading? According to Amir Taheri, the veteran ‎Iranian writer, researcher and expert on Islam, the Persian Gulf and the ‎Middle East: "'Modernization' is spreading. ... I saw a 'modernized' Middle ‎East with armies marching across scorched plains, soldiers and mercenaries ‎cursing in a dozen different languages, the choir of cannons and the ‎choreography of armored cars and tanks. I saw refugees and displaced ‎persons camps, barbed wire, watchtowers, loudspeakers spreading the ‎latest version of truth. There were minefields and grieving mothers, naked ‎children and victims of gas attacks and chemical weapons. The skies were ‎dotted with warplanes dropping more bombs on Syria and Iraq than on ‎Germany during the Second World War. The landscape of ruins, reminding one of Berlin, ‎Warsaw and Leningrad in 1945. ... This looked like Europe in 1918 or 1945, ‎only magnified many times over thanks to the superior power of destruction ‎we now have."‎

Acquaintance with Middle East "modernization" is a prerequisite for a ‎realistic national security policy, devoid of wishful thinking and ‎oversimplification-driven hopes.‎

Acquaintance with Middle East "modernization" highlights the critical role of ‎the posture of deterrence -- while avoiding appeasement and retreats in the ‎face of temptations and pressure, which trigger more pressure and ‎terrorism -- in shaping homeland and national security policies.‎

Acquaintance with Middle East "modernization" underlines the unique role ‎played by Israel -- as long as it controls the high ground rather than ‎withdrawing to the pre-1967 sliver along the Mediterranean -- in extending ‎the strategic hand of the U.S. in the face of mutual threats.‎

Acquaintance with Middle East "modernization" clarifies the nature of the ‎primary threats to regional stability and the survival of pro-U.S. Arab regimes ‎‎-- posed by the rogue ayatollahs and Sunni Islamic terrorism -- and the ‎limited regional role played by the Palestinian issue.‎


Yoram Ettinger is a former ambassador and head of Second Thought: A U.S.-Israel Initiative.

Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=19721

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