Thursday, September 7, 2017

Vanquish the enemy - Prof. Eyal Zisser




by Prof. Eyal Zisser

The main challenge was and still belongs to the political echelon -- to specify the desired objective in a new round of fighting with Hezbollah.

The wide-scale military exercise the IDF launched two days ago in the country's north, the largest of its kind in two decades, is an attempt to simulate the next war, the third Lebanon war, which everyone -- in Israel but also in Lebanon -- fears but is preparing for in earnest.

Similar to the wars that preceded it, the working assumption in the Lebanese arena is that the next round, too, will begin with an isolated incident that spirals out of control, one response followed by a counter-response, sending both sides careening toward a skirmish, perhaps even war. This time, however, Hezbollah's menu of surprises will not only include massive missile barrages at Israeli cities and vital infrastructure, such as ports, airports and power grids, but an attempt to invade Israel and seize control of an IDF outpost; perhaps even a civilian community along the border with Lebanon.

Ever since the summer of 2006, Hezbollah has shied from clashing with the IDF. The blow the organization and its Shiite supporters suffered in the Second Lebanon War almost completely reduced their appetite for provoking Israel. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, scarred by the pummeling he received, effectively became an Israeli asset, because no one was better suited to maintain quiet and stability along the border.

With that, Hezbollah was also able to neutralize Israel's ability to act against it, certainly on Lebanese soil. The terrorist organization successfully sold the equation whereby its missile arsenal could cause significant damage to Israel, damage that potentially outweighs the threat Israel poses to Hezbollah and its supporters. All the more so if Israel's goal remains similar to its previous wars with Hezbollah or even Hamas, when it merely sought to buy itself a few more years of peace and quiet rather than fundamentally altering the reality in Lebanon.

Hence the conclusion reached by many pundits, but also numerous statesmen in Israel, that if Israel's objective in a future conflict with Hezbollah amounts to preserving the status quo and restoring a tense and illusory quiet along the border, while also coming to terms with Hezbollah's expanding influence inside Lebanon, then it would be best to invest its efforts in preventing the next war rather than fighting it.

This appears to be the challenge Israel faces and it should also be the focus of the next IDF exercise. These days, where reality is not only virtual but spurious as well, defeat and victory are elusive concepts. But in contrast to the prevailing assumption in Israel, Hezbollah is no longer -- and probably never was -- an amorphous guerilla organization, devoid a physical presence in the fighting arena, backed by nothing -- neither a supportive public nor a state. 

Hezbollah, therefore, can not only be hit, but also brought to its knees and vanquished. And if the organization cannot be convinced that Israel has the capability, and most importantly the public and political desire and will to defeat it, then any round of fighting will end like those before it, in a complex balancing act where reciprocal damage is hard to calculate; and which will always allow Nasrallah to sell the idea that Israel's war was a failure. 

The challenge at the center of the IDF's current drill, therefore, is not just to train the combat soldiers and junior officers on the ground; it is not even to help senior IDF commanders be more cognizant of the possible scenarios, which they were not prepared for in the summer of 2006. The main challenge was and still belongs to the political echelon -- to specify the desired objective in a new round of fighting with Hezbollah. In this regard, it would be wise for cabinet ministers, not just military commanders, to partake in such an exercise.


Prof. Eyal Zisser

Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=19847

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