by David Bedein
In light of the strong economic ties between Iraqi Kurdistan and Turkey, the Turks won't blockade an independent Kurdistan so long as it does not threaten Turkish national security.
Recently, Turkish
Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu was in Erbil, the capital of the
Kurdistan Region in Iraq, where he voiced Turkey's concerns over the
Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum, which is scheduled to be held
on Sept. 25. Nevertheless, in the discussion he held with Kurdish
leaders, he emphasized that while he supports a united Iraq and wants
the Kurds to reach an arrangement with the central government in
Baghdad, Turkey won't close its doors to doing business with Iraqi
Kurdistan after the independence referendum.
Since an independent
Kurdistan would be landlocked, this move would enable the Kurds to
continue to trade and do business with the rest of the world. This is a
major relief for the Kurds; their worst fear was that upon achieving
independence, they would face a blockade by Syria, Iran, Turkey and
Shiite-controlled Iraq. Such a blockade would serve as a major stumbling
block for the establishment of embassies, international flights and an
independent economy for the new country.
The question remains,
why did Turkey make this decision? Turkey now has $8 billion worth of
trade with Iraqi Kurdistan. Iraqi Kurdistan serves as a gateway for
trade between Iraq and Turkey. Iraqi Kurdistan exports its oil via
Turkey and many Turkish companies operate in Iraqi Kurdistan. And it
appears that this economic reality has affected how Turkey feels. In
light of the strong economic ties between Iraqi Kurdistan and Turkey,
the Turks won't blockade an independent Kurdistan so long as it does not
threaten Turkish national security.
Turkey's position is
good news, and could have implications for other nations that oppose
Kurdish independence, such as Iran. In fact, Iran may come around to
Turkey's position since the Islamic republic won't want only Turkey to
benefit economically from Kurdistan's independence. Iran will want a
piece of the pie, as well. Therefore, it was smart of the Kurds to
remove opposition by both Turkey and Iran.
Kurdistan's Prime
Minister Nechirvan Barzani has played a pivotal role in building up
economic ties between Iraqi Kurdistan and Turkey. He invited Turkish
companies to operate in Iraqi Kurdistan and facilitated the sale of
Kurdish oil in Turkey. Kurdistan's prime minister never supported a
united Iraq; the Kurds had negative experiences under both Saddam
Hussein's Sunni Arab-dominated regime and the current Shiite-dominated
government in Baghdad. Furthermore, he did not want the Kurds to get
caught up in Iraq's sectarian conflicts.
Barzani has been
working for Kurdish independence for quite some time. He knew that Iraqi
Kurds would need to build a strong relationship with the Turks unless
they wanted to be blockaded upon the establishment of an independent
country. And he felt that the best way to strengthen the relationship
with the Turks was via economic ties. He understood that the first step
toward independence was a strong economy, and trade ties with the Turks
could facilitate that, as well.
And now, given these
latest developments, it appears that his long-term thinking on this
issue will save a future Kurdish state from being a landlocked,
blockaded entity facing hostile enemies seeking its destruction on all
fronts. Barzani has turned a hostile country into a business partner
that does not want to do anything that might sabotage these important
economic relations. Both Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan attach great
importance to bilateral trade and this strong economic relationship
changed Turkish policy. The Turks don't want their interests to lose out
after the referendum, and are thus prepared not to initiate hostile
actions against an independent Kurdistan.
David Bedein is the director of the Israel Resource News Agency and the Center for Near East Policy Research.
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=19843
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Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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