Thursday, September 7, 2017

Turkey won't blockade Kurdistan - David Bedein




by David Bedein

In light of the strong economic ties between Iraqi Kurdistan and Turkey, the Turks won't blockade an independent Kurdistan so long as it does not threaten Turkish national security.

Recently, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu was in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region in Iraq, where he voiced Turkey's concerns over the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum, which is scheduled to be held on Sept. 25. Nevertheless, in the discussion he held with Kurdish leaders, he emphasized that while he supports a united Iraq and wants the Kurds to reach an arrangement with the central government in Baghdad, Turkey won't close its doors to doing business with Iraqi Kurdistan after the independence referendum. 

Since an independent Kurdistan would be landlocked, this move would enable the Kurds to continue to trade and do business with the rest of the world. This is a major relief for the Kurds; their worst fear was that upon achieving independence, they would face a blockade by Syria, Iran, Turkey and Shiite-controlled Iraq. Such a blockade would serve as a major stumbling block for the establishment of embassies, international flights and an independent economy for the new country.

The question remains, why did Turkey make this decision? Turkey now has $8 billion worth of trade with Iraqi Kurdistan. Iraqi Kurdistan serves as a gateway for trade between Iraq and Turkey. Iraqi Kurdistan exports its oil via Turkey and many Turkish companies operate in Iraqi Kurdistan. And it appears that this economic reality has affected how Turkey feels. In light of the strong economic ties between Iraqi Kurdistan and Turkey, the Turks won't blockade an independent Kurdistan so long as it does not threaten Turkish national security. 

Turkey's position is good news, and could have implications for other nations that oppose Kurdish independence, such as Iran. In fact, Iran may come around to Turkey's position since the Islamic republic won't want only Turkey to benefit economically from Kurdistan's independence. Iran will want a piece of the pie, as well. Therefore, it was smart of the Kurds to remove opposition by both Turkey and Iran. 

Kurdistan's Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani has played a pivotal role in building up economic ties between Iraqi Kurdistan and Turkey. He invited Turkish companies to operate in Iraqi Kurdistan and facilitated the sale of Kurdish oil in Turkey. Kurdistan's prime minister never supported a united Iraq; the Kurds had negative experiences under both Saddam Hussein's Sunni Arab-dominated regime and the current Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad. Furthermore, he did not want the Kurds to get caught up in Iraq's sectarian conflicts. 

Barzani has been working for Kurdish independence for quite some time. He knew that Iraqi Kurds would need to build a strong relationship with the Turks unless they wanted to be blockaded upon the establishment of an independent country. And he felt that the best way to strengthen the relationship with the Turks was via economic ties. He understood that the first step toward independence was a strong economy, and trade ties with the Turks could facilitate that, as well. 

And now, given these latest developments, it appears that his long-term thinking on this issue will save a future Kurdish state from being a landlocked, blockaded entity facing hostile enemies seeking its destruction on all fronts. Barzani has turned a hostile country into a business partner that does not want to do anything that might sabotage these important economic relations. Both Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan attach great importance to bilateral trade and this strong economic relationship changed Turkish policy. The Turks don't want their interests to lose out after the referendum, and are thus prepared not to initiate hostile actions against an independent Kurdistan.


David Bedein is the director of the Israel Resource News Agency and the Center for Near East Policy Research.

Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=19843

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