by Prof. Efraim Inbar
Nothing can convince Iran to give up its dreams of becoming a nuclear power, and only the use of force can prevent it from realizing them.
Hopes
in the West that Iran would become more moderate after the 2015 nuclear
deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) between it and world
powers in 2015 have gradually been replaced with fears about Iran's
worrying behavior. While Tehran is trying to be seen sticking to the
nuclear deal, it limits the activities of the inspectors, continues
nuclear research and development and devotes efforts to its long-range
missile program.
As such, Iranian involvement in the region
proves its hegemonic aspirations, based on Persian imperialistic
interests, not to mention jihadist impulses. It already controls four
Arab capitals: Baghdad, Beirut, Damascus and Sanaa. The Shiite militias
and its envoys fight in Iraq, Syria and Yemen through ethnic cleansing.
Iran is on the brink of securing a Shiite corridor from the Persian Gulf
to the Mediterranean Sea.
Israel is trying to take advantage of both
global fears and U.S. President Donald Trump's lack of commitment to the
nuclear deal, which he displays to bring about either its cancellation
or the start of new negotiations to obtain a better deal by
reimplementing economic sanctions. But these goals are very hard to
reach and will do nothing to help prevent Iran's going nuclear.
The international community, including the
U.S., has no desire to clash with Iran. Most of the world prefers to
wait until the deal expires in another decade, without considering what
will happen the day after. Despite this, Iran, with a history that goes
back thousands of years, sees the deal as only a short delay before
reaching its aspirations. By understanding that the West [is] not willing to
take military options, Iran is imitating what happened with North Korea.
Israel cannot trust the international
community to prevent Iran from going nuclear. A unilateral breaking of
the deal will only speed up the Iranian nuclear program. Even if the
attempts to convince Iran to open new negotiations on this deal succeed,
its bargaining skills would stretch negotiations for years, giving it
more time to implement its nuclear program. Bringing back economic
sanctions also involves years of diplomatic struggle. Moreover, the
effect of sanctions is limited. Previous sanctions brought Iran back to
the negotiation table but did not change its policy.
We cannot depend on the claim that because a
better deal could have been struck in 2015, reopening negotiations
would still bring the West a better deal. The deal, because of all the
holes in it, was the only one the Iranians were willing to sign on once
it became clear that the U.S. under former President Barack Obama was
unwilling to implement force.
Despite the anti-Iranian rhetoric, it seems
that the U.S. under Trump lacks what is necessary to prevent Iran from
regional hegemony. The truth of the matter is U.S. policy in the Middle
East suits Iran. Trump continues his obsession with fighting Islamic
State (an anti-Iranian force) and he is a partner to Russian and Iranian
schemes in Syria. The U.S. prefers an undivided Iraq, which is an
Iranian satellite state, over supporting a Kurdish state, which Iran
opposes. The U.S. also did not stand firmly on Saudi Arabia's side in
attempts to isolate Qatar, which is trying to woo Iran.
Nothing can convince Iran to give up its
dreams of becoming a nuclear power, and only the use of force can
prevent it from realizing them. Israel stands alone on this matter. No
one is willing to deal with an Iran that is going nuclear, and
accordingly, Israel must be ready to act against critical points in
Iran's nuclear infrastructure. This goal will not be easily obtained,
but it can be done with determination and creativity.
A successful offensive against Iran's
nuclear infrastructure will change the balance of regional power and
reverse Iran's progress. Most countries will be happy that Israel is
doing the dirty work for them, and if the Israeli strikes on the Syrian
and Iraqi nuclear reactors are any indication, they will not make
problems for Israel. That being said, Iran has options to exact a toll
on Israel, but this cost will not be heavier than bearing the brunt of
an Iranian nuclear bomb.
Prof. Efraim Inbar is president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategic Studies, professor emeritus at Bar-Ilan University, founding director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies and a Shillman-Ginsburg fellow at the Middle East Forum.
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/reversing-irans-progress/
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