by Yigal Carmon
Russia's sabotage of the implementation of sections of the JCPOA, and its claim that Iran's 8.5-ton inventory of enriched uranium has gone missing, contribute directly to Iran's unhindered ability to develop nuclear weapons capacity.
Introduction
Part I
of our analysis of the Russian-Iranian existential threat to Israel,
published October 23, 2017, focused on the conventional military
dimension of the threat posed by Russia's facilitation of Iran's
expansion in Syria, up to Israel's borders with both Lebanon and Syria.
Part II, below, focuses on the nuclear dimension of this threat.
Adding The Nuclear Dimension To The Threat
Russia is making it possible for Iran to
evade inspection of its nuclear program, to which it is subject under
the JCPOA. In this way, it adds a nuclear element to the existential
threat to Israel, as follows:
A. Iran's inventory of 8.5 tons of
enriched uranium, shipped out of Iran to Russia in December 2015 in
accordance with the JCPOA, has gone missing in Russia. This was attested
to by the Obama administration's State Department lead coordinator on
Iran, Stephen Mull, at a February 11, 2016 House Foreign Affairs
Committee hearing, where he said: "It has not yet been decided where
exactly Russia will put this information [sic]." But under questioning,
Mull acknowledged that Washington had not verified the Iranian shipment.[1]
B. The most egregious example of
Russia's facilitation of Tehran's development of nuclear weapons
capability is its support of Iran's refusal to allow International
Atomic Energy Agency inspections in accordance with Section T of the
JCPOA, which prohibits Iran from "designing, developing, fabricating,
acquiring, or using multi-point explosive detonation systems suitable
for a nuclear explosive device" and also from "designing, developing,
fabricating, acquiring, or using explosive diagnostic systems (streak
cameras, framing cameras and flash x-ray cameras)" – unless these
activities are "approved by the Joint Commission for non-nuclear
purposes" and "subject to monitoring." Iran refuses to allow such
monitoring, and Russia supports it in its refusal. Russia claims, in a
preposterous argument, that the IAEA is not authorized to deal with this
part of the JCPOA. Its stance was illustrated in October 20, 2017
remarks by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at the Moscow Nonproliferation
Conference: "It is impossible to strengthen what does not exist. The IAEA has no mandate to verify Section T."[2]
Thus,
Russia's sabotage of the implementation of sections of the JCPOA, and
its claim that Iran's 8.5-ton inventory of enriched uranium has gone
missing, contribute directly to Iran's unhindered ability to develop
nuclear weapons capacity.
[1] Menewsline.com, February 16, 2016.
[2] Mid.ru, October 20, 2017. See also Reuters, September 26, 2017.
Yigal Carmon is President of MEMRI and served as advisor to two Israeli prime ministers for countering terrorism.
Source: https://memri.org/reports/russia-iran-axis-existential-threat-israel-%E2%80%93
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Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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