by Dr. Alex Joffe
The ongoing collapse of Theresa May’s government in Britain raises the possibility of new elections in which Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn would be the likely winner.
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 640, November 13, 2017
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The
ongoing collapse of Theresa May’s government in Britain raises the
possibility of new elections in which Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn would
be the likely winner. The red-green alliance between the European far
left and Islamist parties threatens to create a dystopian scenario in
which national identities are rapidly discarded and national security
compromised by terrorism and separatism. This would represent a
tremendous danger to the continent’s Jews, to Israel, and to the US.
The resignation of Priti Patel from the British
Cabinet after leaks that she had secretly met with Israeli officials to
discuss aid to Syrian refugees has thrown the government of Theresa May
into even greater upheaval. Already reeling after electoral failures
earlier this year and unsuccessful Brexit negotiations, there is now the
possibility that May’s government could fall.
This prospect once again brings into focus
demographic and electoral trends in Britain and across Europe. Earlier
in 2017, the alliance between the far left and Muslim voters was not
sufficient to bring a Communist anti-Semite, Jeremy Corbyn, to power as
prime minister under the banner of Labour, but it might pull it off next
time. In Europe, the problem is compounded by the presence of Muslim
political parties that are reshaping national politics.
What are the long-term implications for Israel and the US?
The promised economic and political consequences
of a Corbyn victory – higher taxes, increased immigration, a renewed
relationship with Europe (despite promised support for Brexit), and
distance from the US – may prove insufficient to repel voters. In any
coming election, growing frustration with the ineptitude of Theresa May
and her government, undefined anger at the “establishment,” and the
desire for change will again play roles.
That Corbyn, a vocal admirer of the IRA, Hamas, and Hezbollah and guest on Iranian television,
is a credible politician at all says something about a sizeable portion
of the British population. For British Jews especially, the message is
ominous. Their concerns about rapidly rising anti-Semitism, anti-Israel
bias, and terrorism are simply unimportant as electoral issues.
Endlessly documented anti-Semitism within all levels of the Labour Party
registers with Jews, but not with the broader electorate.
A Corbyn victory, which is entirely plausible, would be a harbinger of demographic and electoral changes throughout Europe. The “red-green alliance”
of far-left and Muslim parties is nominally united against
globalization, capitalism, imperialism, and colonialism, but it is more
fundamentally linked by shared anti-Americanism and anti-Semitism.
The alliance is comprised primarily of Communists
and Greens, but also by mainstream parties such as Corbyn’s Labour
Party, as well as by explicitly Muslim parties, such as the DENK party
in the Netherlands, the Equality and Justice Party in France, and the
NZB Party in Austria. These purport to help downtrodden Muslim
minorities, but are in fact part of a network controlled by Turkey’s AKP party that organizes Muslims under an anti-assimilation platform. Belgium’s Islam party is explicitly Islamist, as is the Arab-European League.
These Muslim parties and others
are already reshaping local politics by functioning as voting blocs
that influence mainstream candidates and by putting forward their own
candidates. They are also influential in organizations such as unions.
Sooner or later, one of these parties will be elected outright or will
wield decisive national power in a coalition government. What might be
expected to follow? Recent history suggests little reason for optimism.
The first concern is counterterrorism. On the one
hand, incidents will be responded to and terrorists neutralized. But on
the other, the “counter violent extremism” paradigm – which has proven
only to empower clever Islamists with funding and credibility
– will be expanded. This will amplify problems that have already
overwhelmed counterterrorist and police forces in Western European
countries. If “de-escalation” police tactics are adopted, the situation on the streets will become far worse.
But further loss of control is assured. The red-green alliance has already empowered local Muslim leaders who govern the banlieues
and the hundreds of other no-go zones. Most mainstream and all Muslim
parties are already opposed to assimilation as a means of national
integration and favor increased immigration, ostensibly in the name of multiculturalism. Retreat from national control and national identity will accelerate.
Speaking out against these trends has already been deemed “racist” at the highest levels. Witness, for example, Angela Merkel’s collusion with Facebook and May’s promise to intensify Britain’s already obsessive policing
of the Internet in the wake of recent London attacks, ostensibly in the
name of preventing “radicalization.” Opposition to free speech on the
grounds that it permits “defamation of religion” is already in the European mainstream and will expand further.
The parallel Muslim societies that already exist
in Europe will expand and be protected by national authorities, since
local authorities are too co-opted or frightened to take action. “Trojan Horse” takeovers of institutions like schools, from kindergartens onward,
are already widespread. New generations of violent separatists are
being both cultivated and imported, firming up voting bases for
red-green alliances.
The existence of parallel Muslim legal structures
beyond the reach of European states is well-established. Calls for
Muslim communal autonomy and autonomous zones in Europe are increasing
and, despite vociferous denials, no-go zones are proliferating. The
temptation to formalize Muslim autonomous zones in the name of religious
freedom or other rationalizations will be enormous, particularly as it
will have electoral backing. A German court has started the process by declaring an unofficial “sharia patrol” that polices “morality” in Muslim neighborhoods to be legal.
Eventually, policies that endorse separatism, criminality, and violence emanating from places like Molenbeek in
Brussels will provide safe havens for more systematic insurgent
violence. It is unclear how governments will respond to entire
neighborhoods or towns effectively outside national control. Security
measures such as cordon and sweep operations still seem anathema, much
less preventive detention, denaturalization, and deportation.
In this dystopian scenario, already problematic
information-sharing between governments, the lifeblood of
counterterrorism, will be disrupted as intelligence and security
institutions are infiltrated by their targets, both as employees
and as political overseers – a scenario already playing out in Germany
and France. Intelligence and security services may even be tempted to
interrupt information-sharing with their own political echelons.
Democratic oversight will be shaken because police and spies will
properly fear sharing information with a Home Secretary like Diane
Abbott.
Predicting European red-green foreign policy is
dismally easy. The convergence of traditional European, far left, and
Muslim anti-Semitism and anti-imperialism has already produced an
obsessive focus on Israel, the “little Satan,” and the “Great Satan,”
the US. Corbyn, a supporter of Hamas and Hezbollah as well as the BDS
movement, is an exemplar, as are virtually all European Muslim
politicians. Leftist European politicians, such as German Foreign
Minister Sigmar Gabriel, already find vocal condemnations of Israel irresistible. These will increase, both from leftist and Islamist conviction and political opportunism.
Suspension of trade, international sanctions, and
legal action against Israelis are all on the cards once far
left/Islamist governments wield power in Europe. This will not produce a
Palestinian state, but that was never the goal. Shunning of the US
might not be as great, but vilification will increase and security
cooperation will decline, to the advantage of the Russians and the
Chinese.
Blind eyes are already being turned across Europe to rapidly rising Muslim anti-Semitism and even the murder of Jews. The vehemence with which governments in Sweden and
elsewhere have jettisoned their own national identities and abandoned
their Jewish citizens reflects post-national eagerness to assimilate to
“multicultural” ideals – that is, to norms established by immigrants,
and the final expression of their loathing of Jews.
In response, the Israeli economic and diplomatic
shifts to Asia and Africa will continue. Protection of Jewish refugees
from Europe will become a factor in Israel’s relationship with the
continent. Immigration to Israel from France has risen rapidly over the
past decade, and Jews from other countries will likely join in. Jewish
life in much of Western Europe will be extinct within decades. The rise
of the far right and other separatist movements will also intensify, but
these trends will also bode ill for national integration and for Jews.
Can anything be done to save these countries from
their duly elected, suicidal fates? The US stepped in twice in the past
century to help save Europe from German militarism and fascism, and then
a third time to protect it from Communism. Some of the same tools that
pushed back Communism may be of use against the far left/Islamist force.
US willingness to employ Russian-style “active
measures” against European countries currently seems absent. But
European problems invariably become problems for the US, and for Jews.
In the US, political will and strategic daring are almost as lacking as
they are in Europe. If this continues to be the case, a dystopian future
will continue to unfold.
BESA Center Perspectives Papers are published through the generosity of the Greg Rosshandler Family
Dr. Alex Joffe is an archaeologist and historian. He is a Shillman-Ginsburg Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
Source: https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/britain-political-crisis/
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