by Rafael Castro
Almost twenty years down the road, the push for democratization has had catastrophic results
Women lining up to vote in Egypt, 2012, photo by UN Women -
Fatma El Zahraa Yassin via Flickr CC
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 827, May 9, 2018
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Ever
since 9/11, Western leaders have pushed for democratization of the Arab
world. Almost twenty years down the road, the push for democratization
has had catastrophic results: With the partial exception of Tunisia, the
Arab states whose dictators were toppled are mired in strife or have
relapsed into despotism. The time has come to learn from the experiences
of South Korea, Spain, and Chile in the mid-to-late 20th century and realize that without a growing economy and a sizable middle class, democracy cannot take root in society.
Western ambitions of planting democracy in the
Arab world have failed miserably. Be it after foreign military
interventions in Iraq and Libya or after civilian protests in Egypt,
Yemen, and Tunisia, the toppling of dictators has hardly given birth to
stable liberal democracies, with the respective Arab states sinking into
greater strife and barbarism.
This failure was perhaps unavoidable. Liberal
democracy is not a panacea for social and economic problems. Nor can
democracy thrive in extremely challenging social and economic
conditions. The belief that the successful democratization of post-World
War II Germany and Japan could be replicated in the Arab world ignored
the fact that democratization in Yugoslavia paved the way to civil war
and ethnic cleansing. Because Arab countries are far more similar to
Yugoslavia than they are to postwar Germany and Japan, it was
foreseeable that democratization in that part of the world would
aggravate social and ethnic tensions rather than heal them.
Liberal democracy flourishes best in strong
economies with a sizable middle class, and is held hostage by internal
schisms. In the Arab world, those elements work against the success of
democracy. The Arab states are often riven by linguistic, ethnic,
social, and religious cleavages. Their economies are often dependent on
natural resources, and the absence of a diversified economy hinders the
emergence of a resilient bourgeoisie – the backbone of civil society and
liberal democracy. Without these elements, attempts at democratization
in the Arab world have fomented rather than inhibited political and
religious extremism, social sectarianism, corruption and nepotism,
terrorism, and repression.
Western leaders must understand that just as
during the Cold War, when authoritarian governments promoting capitalism
were often the most reliable allies against Communism, the best allies
against Islamism may prove to be autocrats promoting capitalism. The
time is ripe to ensure that President Sisi in Egypt, King Muhammad VI in
Morocco, and President Bouteflika in Algeria receive the economic aid
and advice needed to smooth the transition towards genuine free-market
economies that will unleash domestic economic growth.
This Western assistance must be complemented by a
drastic reduction in non-essential military aid and must be predicated
on a strict supervision of economic policies. Generous assistance needs
to foster sustainable economic growth, not subsidize the inefficient
institutions and patronage networks that characterize the region. The
ultimate goal must be to prepare the Arab states for democratization
after an extended period of rapid economic growth – not to prop up
autocrats indefinitely.
The West needs to condition its tolerance and
support for Arab autocrats on the pursuit of intelligent economic
policies. Only such policies can provide the economic growth and jobs
needed to absorb a rapidly growing labor force and reduce the social
tensions that make Islamism attractive to the young and unemployed.
Islamism, like Communism, cannot be defeated by
poor democracies. It can only be defeated by prosperous democracies. The
economic success stories of Spain, Chile, Singapore, Taiwan, and South
Korea suggest that autocracies can deliver economic reforms and economic
growth at least as well as liberal democracies. Given that the Arab
world currently lacks virtually all the historical, cultural, economic,
and social prerequisites needed for liberal democracy to take root,
encouraging economic reforms and rapid economic growth unhindered by
partisan feuds may be the most sober strategy with which to tackle the
region’s many problems.
BESA Center Perspectives Papers are published through the generosity of the Greg Rosshandler Family
Source: https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/democracy-arab-world/
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Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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