by AP and Israel Hayom Staff
As Lebanon prepares for its first parliamentary election in nine years, public fears that the Shiite terrorist group's growing political power could drag the country into an Iran-Israel clash
Few countries are
as vulnerable to the Middle East's mayhem as Lebanon, which has taken in
a million refugees from the catastrophic war in neighboring Syria, seen
the Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah militia embroiled in that war and
watched Saudi Arabia try to oust its prime minister.
Yet campaigning for Sunday's parliamentary
election, the first in nine years, has timidly sidestepped the big
issues, leaving many Lebanese expecting more of the same. It is
especially galling for Lebanese concerned that a still-dominant
Hezbollah could drag the country into a looming Iran-Israel regional
confrontation.
The vote is expected to be a test for the
country's Western-backed Sunni prime minister, Saad Hariri, and his
Iran-backed Shiite militant opponent, Hezbollah, which is looking to
tighten its grip and expand its presence in the 128-seat parliament –
likely at Hariri's expense.
Interior Minister Nouhad Mashnouk, a member
of Hariri's inner circle, said the election is not "a Sunni-Shiite
conflict but rather a conflict between a group that believes in a state
and a nation, and another that has regional and Iranian leanings."
The sides, however, can hardly govern
effectively without each other and are expected to recreate the unity
government that currently exists, which incorporates members of the
militant group.
Most of the campaigning by more than 500
candidates has revolved around platforms of stability and economic
growth, with many of Lebanon's civil war-era political titans set to
return, including Lebanon's aging Shiite parliament speaker, Nabih
Berri, a Hezbollah ally who has held the post for more than 25 years and
who is virtually uncontested. Some warlords are passing on their seats
to their sons, including Druze leader Walid Jumblatt.
"Divisive issues such as Hezbollah's
weapons and the controversy over its participation in regional conflicts
are almost entirely absent from the electoral campaigns, indicating
implicit acceptance of the party's domestic hegemony," wrote analyst
Joseph Bahout in an article for the Carnegie Middle East Center.
A new election law agreed on last year has
opened cracks through which rivals within the Shiite community could
potentially challenge Hezbollah, and political newcomers and
independents could try to break through the monopoly long enjoyed by the
political dynasties.
It also promises to shake things up by
reorganizing Lebanon's electoral map, consolidating 23 districts into
15, and awarding seats by share of the vote received, rather than winner
takes all. The law also allows Lebanese expatriates to vote abroad for
the first time, adding a new level of unpredictability to the mix.
The last time elections were held in
Lebanon was in 2009. Since then, members of parliament have extended
their terms twice, citing security threats linked to the war in
neighboring Syria.
Lebanon is technically a parliamentary
democracy but is shackled by a decades-old sectarian-based power-sharing
system, and its politics are dominated by former warlords that have
long exploited the system to perpetuate corruption and nepotism. All
senior government positions are allocated according to sect, including
the head of state, who should be a Christian, the prime minister, a
Sunni Muslim, and the parliament speaker, a Shiite. Parliament is
divided equally between Christians and Muslims, with seats allotted
according to religious sect.
The formula, based on outdated demographic
data that does not account for nearly 200,000 Palestinians who are
denied citizenship and a vote, allows people to vote according to their
religious affiliations, not a political program.
AFP
A record number of first-time hopefuls are
campaigning for change, urging voters to shun politicians who have
drowned the country in corruption and debt. Many rose to prominence as
organizers of protests over a 2015 trash collection crisis that left
garbage in the streets for months and laid bare the extent of the public
sector mismanagement plaguing Lebanon.
"It reflects a new mindset emerging among
significant sectors of the Lebanese electorate, pointing in the
direction of making a small dent in the religious sect-based political
system," said Randa Slim, an analyst with the Washington-based Middle
East Institute.
Still, the biggest winners appear to be
Hezbollah and its allies, who look set to scoop up at least some of the
seats lost by Hariri's coalition, largely because of the expected
fragmentation of the Sunni vote.
Hariri now has the largest bloc in
parliament but is likely to lose seats to rival politicians. Some of
Hariri's supporters shifted their allegiance after the billionaire
businessman, who also holds Saudi citizenship, laid off scores of
employees in his development company, Saudi Oger, as well as in
Hariri-owned charities and media outlets in Lebanon, largely because of
Saudi spending cuts.
That loss of support has been compounded by
what some see as a weak stance vis-a-vis Hezbollah, accusing him of
catering to and giving political cover to the militant group, which a
U.N.-backed tribunal has accused in the 2015 assassination of his
father, Rafik Hariri.
Hezbollah offered its support to Hariri
after he was detained in Saudi Arabia late last year during a visit to
Riyadh in which he announced his resignation as prime minister, citing
Iran and Hezbollah's meddling in the region. The move was widely seen as
Saudi coercion, although Hariri denies stepping down against his will
and has since reversed his resignation.
Hezbollah now seeks, along with its allies,
to win at least 43 seats in the 128-member legislature, which would
enable the militant group to veto any laws it opposes.
Hezbollah has sent thousands of fighters to
Syria to shore up President Bashar Assad and has cleared the vast
region along the countries' shared border of Islamic State terrorists,
leaving hundreds of its fighters killed and wounded. It is now
campaigning heavily on those achievements.
Its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, called for
heavy voter turnout, particularly in the Baalbek-Hermel region in
eastern Lebanon, traditionally a Hezbollah stronghold which now faces a
challenge from rivals.
"You should protect with your votes your
victories and achievements, for which you've paid a very high price,"
Nasrallah said in an appeal to supporters at an election rally in the
area on Monday.
Despite limited pushback from the Shiite
community, Hezbollah has largely delivered on its promises in Syria as
far as the Shiite community is concerned and will now be expected to
deliver on the economic front, Slim said.
She expects a governing coalition between
Hariri and Hezbollah to re-emerge from Sunday's vote and says if the
elections produce a weaker Hariri, it will be all the more reason for
Hezbollah to push for him to be the next prime minister.
"In light of the talk of a looming
Iranian-Israeli confrontation in Syria, Hezbollah will be more
incentivized in not rocking the boat in Lebanon," she said.
AP and Israel Hayom Staff
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/2018/05/06/hezbollah-poised-to-tighten-grip-in-lebanon-following-election/
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