by Shimon Arad
Israel should be wary of following the American lead in relaxing export standards for approving arms sales.
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 866, June 15, 2018
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The
divergence between the Trump administration’s desire to increase arms
sales to the Middle East and the capacity limits of Arab clients for
what the US currently markets makes the release of new types of advanced
US weapon systems to the region more likely, which could undermine
Israel’s qualitative military edge. While the administration’s global
arms export drive may increase US-Israel competition for certain
markets, it could also offer opportunities for joint arms export
cooperation. Israel should be wary of following the American lead in
relaxing export standards for approving arms sales.
On April 19, 2018, the White House issued
a national presidential security memorandum laying out a revised US
Conventional Arms Transfer (CAT) Policy. Following a sixty-day period
for feedback from the industry, a proposed action plan to implement the
revised policy guidelines regarding conventional arms transfers and
unmanned aerial systems export policy will be submitted by the State
Department in coordination with the Defense, Commerce, and Energy
Departments for the president’s approval.
At its core, this new policy initiative is
designed to ease regulations and increase the accessibility and
competitiveness of US weaponry in order to bolster America’s share of
the global arms market. As Peter Navarro, White House National Trade
Council head stated,
the change “will allow allies and partners to more easily obtain
American security goods, which in turn improves the security of the
United States while reducing the need for them to buy Chinese and
Russian systems.”
Increasing arms sales is an important policy
objective of the Trump administration, with the president himself
pushing foreign leaders to buy American-made military systems and
equipment. Expanding arms sales is seen as not only serving security and
foreign policy interests but also underwriting the administration’s
“America First” policy through the economic benefits that will be
derived from expanding the ability of the defense industrial base to
create jobs and innovate.
Arms exports constituted over 6% of the value of all US exports in the period from 2007 to 2014. According to a recent release
by the authoritative Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
(SIPRI), between 2013 and 2017 the US extended its lead in arms exports
to 34% of total arms sales in the world. Increasing or even preserving
the significant contribution of foreign military sales to America’s
economy will require continued substantial orders from the Middle East
and Asian markets that have led the rising trend of arms imports over
the last decade. The consequent effort to maintain the Middle East as a
substantial outlet for US-made arms could have a number of notable
implications for Israel.
Breaking the quality barrier
While the Middle East market accounted for half
(49%) of total US arms exports in the 2013-17 period, the combination of
a present downward swing in demand for major US-made weapon systems in
the Middle East and a deliberate policy of arms purchase diversification
by the Arab states means innovative measures are going to be needed if
the US is to achieve or exceed previous levels of arms sales to the
region. This will necessitate going beyond current limits on arms sales
to the Arab states.
Following a decade of large-scale sales of fighter
jets, helicopters, warships, and air-defense systems, the Arab clients
are close to or at their capacity limits for these types of US-made
arms. With the residual market for such expensive weapon systems being
shared with European and Russian arms manufacturers, the US will need to
push the envelope in order to garner large-scale arms sales to the
region in the coming years.
This makes the release of new types of advanced
capabilities to the Arab states in the near future much more likely.
Prime candidates are the F-35 fifth-generation fighter jet and armed
drones. Though this would be very problematic from a Qualitative
Military Edge (QME) perspective, the sale of F-35s and armed drones to
the Arab countries would be very lucrative and could contribute
considerably to keeping the Middle East as a major arms market in the
years to come.
Between competition and cooperation
In 2017, Israel’s arms exports reached a record
$9.2 billion thanks to increased sales to India, Asia, and Europe of
air-defense systems, radars and electronic warfare systems, and drones.
Increased competition between Israel and the US for certain arms markets
is growing more likely, but mutual benefit through cooperation on
specific arms export projects is also possible.
Obviously, Israel and the US will not compete on
arms sales across the board, but a more assertive US drive could bite
into traditional Israeli markets. The military UAV market, especially
armed UAVs, is one such area of potential competition. To date, the US
has adopted a strong presumption of denial when considering the sale of
armed UAVs around the world. The review initiated by the administration
of the UAV export policy, including the intention to try and reform the
Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) that governs the export of
missiles and drones, indicates that the US is looking to expand its
share of the UAV market, in which Israel is a major player.
More competition in places central to Israel’s
success in arms exports – like India, Asia, and Europe – may also be in
the cards. The US has upped its marketing efforts in these places, as
exemplified by the Trump administration’s recent approval to supply India with armed Predator-B (MQ-9) UAVs. Up to this point, India’s armed drones have been Israeli-made Harpy systems.
On the other hand, there may be more opportunities
for cooperation in arms exports between Israel and the US. Poland
recently signed a $4.76 billion deal for the purchase of the US-made
Patriot air-defense system. Initially, the Israeli-made David’s Sling
interceptor missiles were in the running to be integrated into the sale.
Though Poland eliminated the Israeli missiles from the competition,
the demand for air and missile defense systems around the world could
increase the potential for US-Israeli cooperation in this field.
Relaxing Israeli export rules
The review of the US conventional arms and UAV
export policy may also encourage some in the Israeli defense
establishment to consider a comparable easing of Israeli regulations on
arms exports. Recently, a number of regulatory changes were made
to streamline arms export marketing procedures. These do not, however,
circumvent the procedures that supervise Israel’s arms export policy.
Israel is regularly criticized for selling weapons
to countries that have problematic human rights track records, such as
Myanmar, South Sudan, and Honduras. The upswing in Israel’s arms exports
to countries in Africa, South America, and Asia that suffer from
corruption or poor human rights records highlights the need to maintain
strict standards and procedures for the approval of arms exports.
In short, Israel should be able to compete for
arms markets globally without compromising the rigorous guidelines that
govern the arms export process.
Recommendations
Within the context of its security dialogue with
the US, Israel must relay its strong opposition to the release of the
F-35 fifth-generation fighter jet to the Arab states. Israel must retain
its regional exclusivity of this platform since its regional aerial
superiority depends, to a large degree, on the technological advantages
that the F-35 fighter affords it.
In addition, areas of cooperation in arms exports
need to be earnestly explored with regard to those systems for which
Israeli-US collaboration provides mutual benefits in securing arms
deals. Air defense systems seem to be the prime candidate for this kind
of partnership. At the same time, rules of competition need to be
established with regard to the other arms export endeavors that will be
contested between the US and Israel.
Finally, Israel should be wary of relaxing
standards and procedures for approving arms exports. A more competitive
global arms market is no excuse for the reversal of human rights,
corruption, and security restrictions on arms sales.
BESA Center Perspectives Papers are published through the generosity of the Greg Rosshandler Family
Shimon Arad is a retired Colonel of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). His writings focus on regional security matters.
Source: https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/arms-export-policy-israel/
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Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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