by Amnon Lord
The three-month Palestinian arson terrorism campaign has changed the equation on the ground and many believe Hamas's low-tech kites have been able to best the IDF's high-tech abilities • But there is more to the bigger picture than meets the eye.
Palestinian arson terrorism has so far sparked over 1,000 fires on the Israeli side of the border
After three months
of fires in Israeli communities near the Gaza Strip border, the bottom
line is deeply worrying: the IDF is paralyzed vis-à-vis Palestinian
arson terrorism. The top military echelon may not see kite terrorism
as a military challenge, but this issue has strategic significance.
The military was well prepared for the
Hamas-orchestrated border riot campaign launched on March 30. As tens
of thousands of Palestinians try to rush the border weekly, troops
guarding the southern sector have so far eliminated dozens of
terrorists who tried to breach the security fence, but the onslaught of
incendiary kites and balloons was something of a surprise.
The element of surprise was mostly
technological – who would have thought that such crude instruments such
as kites and balloons could be used as tactical weapons? Yet the IDF
was unable to devise immediate countermeasures against them.
So far, Palestinian arson terrorism has
sparked 1,000 fires that have devoured over 8,200 acres of forest and
agricultural land in Israeli border towns, with the damage totaling
tens of millions of dollars. Environmental experts say it will take at
least 15 years to rehabilitate the vegetation and wildlife in the
scorched areas.
While the IDF continues to try various technologies to counter kite terrorism, so far, it has been bested by Hamas.
Some ministers on the Diplomatic-Security
Cabinet see the situation as one in which Hamas has changed the
equation on the ground. Cabinet hawks keep calling for a harsher Israeli response, but in the few instances when the IDF struck Hamas positions in Gaza over kite terrorism, the Islamist terrorist group retaliated by launching a rocket salvo on the border-adjacent communities.
That, it appears, was enough to deter the
military, whose commanders appear to believe that any forceful Israeli
response to arson terrorism would prompt a rapid security escalation
that would surely trigger war, which no one wants.
The result is military paralysis opposite
systematic arson attacks, which Hamas perceives as fear of
confrontation. And Gaza's rulers have not been shy about bragging
about it.
As weird as it may seem, the IDF does not
regard arson terrorism as a military challenge. GOC Southern Command
Maj. Gen. Eyal Zamir said recently that the underground barrier
currently being built near the border to block Hamas' grid of terror tunnels costs much more than the total damage caused by the three-month incendiary kite campaign.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and
Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman may have thought at one point that
the IDF would be able to extinguish the Palestinians' arson campaign
but that has not happened, and some see the conduct of the IDF's top
echelon as a symptom of a detached military elite.
Others continue to dismiss these fires as
an inconsequential wave of Palestinian frustration that is of no
strategic significance. But it is, in fact, very significant. Hamas has
changed the equation on the ground: Not only is it no longer deterred
by IDF strikes in Gaza, it has turned the tables and now the Israeli
military is the one that is wary of retaliating. Hamas is
systematically torching everything their kites touch on the Israeli
side of the border while the IDF is literally sitting on the fence.
Some ministers on the right have accused
Netanyahu and Lieberman of tolerating the military's inaction rather
than pushing it to find a creative solution. And so far, neither
Netanyahu nor Lieberman have pounded their fist on the table and
demanded answers and options.
Still, one must also see the other side of
this equation: Many Israeli prime ministers were less calculated, often
opting for a knee-jerk reaction. Overall, that has rarely worked in
Israel's favor.
Letting the tensions in Gaza reach boiling
point at this time is an Iranian interest as well as a scenario
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas favors, so an Israeli
policy of restraint is somewhat unavoidable.
Those who follow the situation on the Gaza
border naturally ask a few questions, for example, what is going on in
the diplomatic sphere that is causing Israel to opt for restraint in
the face of Hamas' audacity.
Over the past week, much has been said about the United States' "Gaza first" initiative, involving a generous humanitarian aid package in exchange for a long-term cease-fire between Israel and Hamas.
Some have said that Israel is exercising
restraint so as not to jeopardize this move, but the truth is that Gaza
is a more complicated project than trying to denuclearize North
Korea. Even if senior White House adviser Jared Kushner and Saudi Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Salman are pushing this initiative with all they
have – they have a long road ahead of them.
Senior cabinet ministers believe the real
threat lies in Syria, where Iran is relentlessly trying to entrench
itself militarily.
According to a recent report in The
Economist, Iranian-backed militias in Syria are 80,000 strong and
Tehran is sparing no effort to set up military and intelligence
infrastructure in the war-torn country.
Israel's captains, it seems, believe that
in the greater scheme of things, if you want to deal with the Iranians
and at the same time prevent a major war in the northern sector, you
must exercise restraint on the Gaza border.
A senior Jerusalem official told Israel
Hayom that Abbas and Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have
identical interests, and both would like to see the ticking time bomb
that is Gaza blow up in Israel's face. A war in Gaza will reduce global
attention to Syria while also reducing Israel's intelligence effort
there.
Still, even ministers who are focused on
the situation in Syria admit the Gaza border is on the verge of
conflagration. It is only a matter of time.
Unnecessary provocation
The highly controversial article in the
nation-state bill that allows Jewish communities to legally exclude
non-Jews, is a High Court of Justice appeal in the making.
It is not for nothing that Article 7b has sparked a political firestorm, and Attorney General Avichai Mendelblit and President Reuven Rivlin are right to say that it is discriminatory and unacceptable.
This article is a thorn that must be removed from the nation-state bill's side if it is to be inducted as a basic law.
The nation-state bill, which aims to anchor
Israel's status as a "Jewish state with a democratic regime" and
preserve the country's Jewish character, state symbols and
sacred Jewish sites according to Jewish tradition, is a highly
important legislative proposal, and it is a mistake to focus on an
article that seeks to undo previous High Court ruling stating such
exclusion is illegal.
It is up to reality to determine the
cultural identity of communities in Israel – the same reality that
supports the existence of mixed Jewish-Arab communities today.
This issue should never have been brought
up. The nature of a community should be left to pragmatism, as
dictated by the circumstances on the ground, and not be subject to a
law that sets in place restrictions that are utterly unacceptable in
this day and age.
Many cities in Israel may find that they
have to adjust to an economic-cultural reality in which Arabs live in
modern Israeli society. The latter has great advantages because it is a
mixed society that needs to find checks and balances between
cultures.
Any legal provision allowing exclusion
based on religion or ethnicity will not stand up to the High Court's
scrutiny and only further divide Israeli society.
But even worse, instead of fostering a
natural, pragmatic development in Jewish-Arab relations, this Article
7b invites unnecessary provocations, mostly by families that will put
it to a legal test. Internal lawfare will only poison the atmosphere in
Israel, and overseas, it will be used by anti-Israel elements to
present the Jewish state as racist.
Amnon Lord
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/2018/07/13/a-series-of-calculated-risks/
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