Saturday, July 14, 2018

A series of calculated risks - Amnon Lord


by Amnon Lord

The three-month Palestinian arson terrorism campaign ‎has changed the equation on the ground and many ‎believe Hamas's low-tech kites have been able to best the IDF's ‎high-tech abilities • But there is more to the bigger picture ‎than meets the eye.‎



Palestinian arson terrorism has so far sparked over 1,000 fires on the Israeli side of the border 

After three months of fires in Israeli communities near ‎the Gaza Strip border, the bottom line is deeply ‎worrying: the IDF is paralyzed vis-à-vis Palestinian arson ‎terrorism. The top military echelon may not see kite ‎terrorism as a military challenge, but this issue has ‎strategic significance. ‎

The military was well prepared for the Hamas-orchestrated ‎border riot campaign launched on March 30. As tens of ‎thousands of Palestinians try to rush the border ‎weekly, troops guarding the southern sector have so far ‎eliminated dozens of terrorists who tried to breach the security ‎fence, but the onslaught of incendiary kites and balloons ‎was something of a surprise.‎

The element of surprise was mostly technological – who ‎would have thought that such crude instruments such as kites ‎and balloons could be used as tactical weapons? Yet the IDF was unable to devise immediate ‎countermeasures against them. ‎

So far, Palestinian arson terrorism has sparked 1,000 fires that have devoured over ‎‎8,200 acres of forest and agricultural land in Israeli ‎border towns, with the damage totaling tens of millions of ‎dollars. Environmental experts say it will take at least 15 ‎years to rehabilitate the vegetation and wildlife in the ‎scorched areas. ‎

While the IDF continues to try various technologies to ‎counter kite terrorism, so far, it has been bested by ‎Hamas. ‎

Some ministers on the Diplomatic-Security Cabinet see ‎the situation as one in which Hamas has changed the ‎equation on the ground. Cabinet hawks keep calling for a ‎harsher Israeli response, but in the few instances when ‎the IDF struck Hamas positions in Gaza over kite ‎terrorism, the Islamist terrorist group retaliated by ‎launching a rocket salvo on the border-adjacent ‎communities.‎

That, it appears, was enough to deter the military, ‎whose commanders appear to believe that any forceful ‎Israeli response to arson terrorism would prompt a rapid ‎security escalation that would surely trigger war, which ‎no one wants. ‎

Israeli soldiers test a drone meant to counter kite terrorism

The result is military paralysis opposite systematic arson ‎attacks, which Hamas perceives as fear of confrontation. ‎And Gaza's rulers have not been shy about bragging ‎about it.‎

As weird as it may seem, the IDF does not regard arson ‎terrorism as a military challenge. GOC Southern ‎Command Maj. Gen. Eyal Zamir said recently that the ‎underground barrier currently being built near the border ‎to block Hamas' grid of terror tunnels costs much more ‎than the total damage caused by the three-month ‎incendiary kite campaign. ‎

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister ‎Avigdor Lieberman may have thought at one point that ‎the IDF would be able to extinguish the Palestinians' ‎arson campaign but that has not happened, and some ‎see the conduct of the IDF's top echelon as a symptom ‎of a detached military elite. ‎

Others continue to dismiss these fires as an ‎inconsequential wave of Palestinian frustration that is of ‎no strategic significance. But it is, in fact, very ‎significant. Hamas has changed the equation on the ‎ground: Not only is it no longer deterred by IDF strikes ‎in Gaza, it has turned the tables and now the Israeli ‎military is the one that is wary of retaliating. Hamas is ‎systematically torching everything their kites touch on ‎the Israeli side of the border while the IDF is literally ‎sitting on the fence.‎

Some ministers on the right have accused Netanyahu ‎and Lieberman of tolerating the military's inaction rather ‎than pushing it to find a creative solution. And so far, ‎neither Netanyahu nor Lieberman have pounded their fist ‎on the table and demanded answers and options. ‎

Still, one must also see the other side of this equation: Many ‎Israeli prime ministers were less calculated, often opting ‎for a knee-jerk reaction. Overall, that has rarely worked ‎in Israel's favor. ‎

Letting the tensions in Gaza reach boiling point at this ‎time is an Iranian interest as well as a scenario ‎Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas favors, ‎so an Israeli policy of restraint is somewhat ‎unavoidable. ‎

Those who follow the situation on the Gaza border ‎naturally ask a few questions, for example, what is going ‎on in the diplomatic sphere that is causing Israel to opt ‎for restraint in the face of Hamas' audacity. ‎

Over the past week, much has been said about the ‎United States' "Gaza first" initiative, involving a generous ‎humanitarian aid package in exchange for a long-term ‎cease-fire between Israel and Hamas.

Some have said that Israel is exercising restraint so as ‎not to jeopardize this move, but the truth is that Gaza is ‎a more complicated project than trying to ‎denuclearize North Korea. Even if senior White House ‎adviser Jared Kushner and Saudi Crown Prince ‎Mohammed bin Salman are pushing this initiative with all ‎they have – they have a long road ahead of them. ‎

Senior cabinet ministers believe the real threat lies in ‎Syria, where Iran is relentlessly trying to entrench itself ‎militarily. ‎

According to a recent report in The Economist, Iranian-‎backed militias in Syria are 80,000 strong and Tehran is ‎sparing no effort to set up military and intelligence ‎infrastructure in the war-torn country. ‎

Israel's captains, it seems, believe that in the greater ‎scheme of things, if you want to deal with the Iranians ‎and at the same time prevent a major war in the ‎northern sector, you must exercise restraint on the ‎Gaza border.‎

A senior Jerusalem official told Israel Hayom that Abbas ‎and Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have ‎identical interests, and both would like to see the ticking ‎time bomb that is Gaza blow up in Israel's face. A war in ‎Gaza will reduce global attention to Syria while also ‎reducing Israel's intelligence effort there. ‎

Still, even ministers who are focused on the situation in ‎Syria admit the Gaza border is on the verge of ‎conflagration. It is only a matter of time.‎

Unnecessary provocation

The highly controversial article in the nation-state bill ‎that allows Jewish communities to legally exclude ‎non-‎Jews, is a High Court of Justice appeal in the making. ‎

It is not for nothing that Article 7b has sparked a ‎political firestorm, and Attorney ‎‎General Avichai ‎Mendelblit and President Reuven Rivlin are right to say ‎that it is discriminatory and unacceptable.‎

This article is a thorn that must be removed from the ‎nation-state bill's side if it is to be inducted as a basic ‎law.‎

The nation-state bill, which aims to anchor Israel's status ‎as a "Jewish ‎‎state with a ‎‎democratic regime" and ‎preserve ‎‎the country's Jewish character, ‎‎state ‎‎symbols ‎and sacred Jewish sites ‎‎according to Jewish ‎‎tradition, is a ‎highly important legislative proposal, and it is a mistake to focus on an ‎article that seeks to undo previous High Court ruling ‎stating such exclusion is illegal. ‎

It is up to reality to determine the cultural identity of ‎communities in Israel – the same reality that supports ‎the existence of mixed Jewish-Arab communities today.‎

This issue should never have been brought up. The ‎nature of a community should be left to pragmatism, as ‎dictated by the circumstances on the ground, and not be ‎subject to a law that sets in place restrictions that are ‎utterly unacceptable in this day and age. ‎

Many cities in Israel may find that they have to adjust to ‎an economic-cultural reality in which Arabs live in ‎modern Israeli society.‎ The latter has great advantages because it is a mixed ‎society that needs to find checks and balances between ‎cultures.

Any legal provision allowing exclusion based on ‎religion or ethnicity will not stand up to the High Court's ‎scrutiny and only further divide Israeli society.‎

But even worse, instead of fostering a natural, pragmatic ‎development in Jewish-Arab relations, this Article 7b invites ‎unnecessary provocations, mostly by families that will ‎put it to a legal test. Internal lawfare will only poison the ‎atmosphere in Israel, and overseas, it will be used by ‎anti-Israel elements to present the Jewish state as ‎racist.‎


Amnon Lord

Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/2018/07/13/a-series-of-calculated-risks/

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