by Yoav Limor
The Shiite terrorist group is already importing its tactics from Lebanon to Syria, making Israel's northern sector highly volatile.
The Syrian army is
expected to complete its takeover of the country's southwest, near the
border with Israel, in the next day or two. This will allegedly restore a
familiar situation, in which Syria's regime is once again stable, even
if under the auspices of Russia.
This would seem to be an ideal situation,
especially if reality on the ground reverts to the one that existed
before the civil war began in 2011, when Syria and Israel both adhered
to the 1974 cease-fire agreement in full. This would restore peace and
quiet to the Golan Heights, which could once again become Israel's most
tranquil frontier.
The key word here is "if." Unfortunately,
the chances of this becoming reality are slim. The Syrian army may
regain control on the ground, but it will not be the only armed presence
near the border. Russia will be there too, and its presence is both a
blessing and a curse.
The Russian presence, ostensibly meant to
inspire restraint on all sides, will only be effective if Russia agrees
to act on Israeli intelligence and thwart anti-Israeli incidents. But if
the Russians prove to be a modern version of the United Nations Interim
Force in Lebanon, which sees no evil, hears no evil and speaks no evil,
Israel will find itself in a predicament, as Russia's presence will
make it difficult for Israel to act independently.
Russia, however, is the easy part. The bigger problems are Iran and its proxy, Hezbollah.
Iranian forces are unlikely to be able to
reach the Syria-Israel border – Israel, Russia, and even Syria, which
would prefer not to be dragged into a conflict with Israel, will work to
prevent that from happening.
Israel insists on the complete removal of
Iranian forces from Syria, which is unlikely to happen. The last Russian
offer on that issue was to keep Iran 100 kilometers (62 miles) from the
border. This can be used as a starting point for negotiations, but
those will be exhausted sooner, rather than later.
Hezbollah is a different story. The
Iranian-backed Shiite terrorist group is already in Syria. Its
operatives are fighting alongside the Syrian army and it has several
hundred local villagers on its payroll, who engage in intelligence
gathering.
This was a strategic decision by Hezbollah
leader Hassan Nasrallah, who wants to turn the Golan border into an
active war zone with Israel.
Hezbollah is likely to employ its familiar
methods: joining local militias, importing its tactical abilities –
anti-tank missiles, explosives and snipers – from Lebanon, and importing
troops.
The first stage has already been completed,
the second stage is in full swing and, unless Hezbollah is stopped, the
third stage will become a reality in a few short years.
Stopping Hezbollah in its tracks is
Israel's main challenge and doing so will become exponentially more
difficult once the Syrian civil war officially ends. Until now, Israel
has been able to use the chaos north of the border to eliminate any risk
from that direction, but once the war ends, any use of force would have
to be justified to others.
Legitimizing Israeli operations on this
front is likely to become far more complex and the risk for a security
escalation will be greater. This will require Israel to use more carrots
and sticks opposite everyone involved, as well as adamantly enforce its
red lines.
Israel will soon also cease the
humanitarian aid campaign it has been carrying out on the border. The
IDF hopes that the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force stationed
in the buffer zone between Israel and Syria will be able to resume its
operations in full, both lending a hand to the local Syrian population
and providing them with an incentive not to back the anti-Israeli
elements in the area.
Yoav Limor
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/2018/08/01/hezbollah-likely-to-replace-isis-on-israels-northern-border-idf-says/
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