by Daniel Siryoti
Both Israel and the Palestinian leadership are increasingly nervous at the prospect of an intra-Palestinian bloodbath resulting from PA President Mahmoud Abbas' failure to groom a successor acceptable to all Palestinian factions.
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah
in late August
Photo: Reuters
Who will succeed
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas? The leadership in Israel,
as well as the Palestinian political system, have been busy with this
burning question for some time.
It's not only Jerusalem that is having
difficulty guessing who will follow the 82-year-old PA leader, who is
not in the best of health. No one in the Palestinian leadership knows
who will take over when Abbas is no longer able to fulfill his duties.
This is all because the elderly head of the PA, despite requiring
frequent medical treatments, isn't making any effort to mentor a
successor who will be acceptable to the entire Palestinian political
system.
Not only that – one senior PA official has
noted that "there is no agreed-upon protocol for the event that the rais
[president] becomes unable to fulfill his duties, and a temporary or
permanent replacement [for him] is needed."
Both the Palestinians and the Israeli
security establishment are worried about a scenario in which Abbas'
departure would lead to an internal Palestinian war of succession, which
could result in violent clashes and possibly even a civil war between
the various Palestinian political camps.
The most alarming scenario for Israel is
the threat of Hamas overthrowing the PA leadership and seizing control
of the West Bank, just like it did in the Gaza Strip in 2007.
Senior officials in Ramallah aren't hiding
their dissatisfaction with the unclear identity of Abbas' successor. The
possibility that Hamas might exploit chaos in the West Bank for a
putsch also bothers them.
"A situation in which Hamas seizes power in
the West Bank will lead to bloodshed that will make the overthrow Hamas
carried out in Gaza over a decade ago look like child's play," a
Palestinian official told Israel Hayom.
"This is a problem that could affect not
only the Palestinians in the West Bank, but also Israel. The entire
region could be dragged into violence, and no one knows how it will
end," the official said.
There are a number of individuals within
the Palestinian leadership who see themselves worthy of succeeding
Abbas. Recently, Abbas appointed senior Fatah official Mahmoud al-Aloul
as his deputy. Al-Aloul has served in a variety of positions in the
Tanzim, Fatah's armed wing, whose operatives are responsible for dozens
of terrorist attacks against Israelis. Despite the title, Al-Aloul knows
that his appointment was strictly a formality, designed to quash
criticism.
There are other Palestinian officials who are eyeing Abbas' chair. These include president of the Palestinian Football Association Jibril Rajoub and Civil Affairs Minister Hussein a-Sheikh – who has the unreserved support of the Israeli political leadership and defense establishment.
Other potential candidates are current PA Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah; former PA Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, who enjoys considerable international support; and two Abbas associates – his spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeineh and chief Palestinian negotiator Dr. Saeb Erekat. The last two, despite their close ties to Abbas, do not have a significant base of support among the Palestinian people.
Right now, the person who appears to have the greatest chance of succeeding Abbas is former Tanzim head Marwan Barghouti,
who is currently serving five life sentences in Israel for his
involvement in terrorist attacks that killed dozens of Israelis during
the Second Intifada.
In the past, senior Israeli politicians
have called for Barghouti's release, hoping that – unlike Abbas – he
would be able to bring the Palestinians back to the negotiating table to
work out a peace agreement.
Still, intra-Palestinian power struggles
and Abbas' fear of Barghouti's growing strength have caused the latter's
support base in Fatah to dry up. In the past, polls have showed
Barghouti capturing over 80% of popular support if he runs for the
presidency from prison, but for some time now, figures have been showing
a grimmer picture. It now appears that if Barghouti runs for PA
president, he would scoop only a small percentage of the votes, whether
he did so from prison or if he were released.
Former Fatah official Mohammad Dahlan
was also once considered a viable successor, but he fled the West Bank
before he could be convicted of acts of corruption and treason in the
internal Palestinian power struggles. He "bought" power in the
Palestinian refugee camps using the money showered upon him by leaders
of Arab countries, like Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi and the
heads of the oil emirates in the Persian Gulf. Nevertheless, Dahlan has
still managed to lose most of his support in the Palestinian camps.
Many people are pointing to one person who
might be an ideal successor to Abbas and who could transition into power
quietly, without violence. This is PA Intelligence Services Chief Gen. Majid Faraj,
who is considered one of Abbas' closest associates and is also widely
respected by Israel. Arab states and Washington also support him.
Faraj has Abbas' full confidence. Abbas
recently sent him on special missions and to high-level meetings in the
U.S., Europe and Arab countries. The fact that he competently runs the
Palestinian intelligence and security systems makes it more likely that
if Abbas can no longer fulfill his role as PA leader, Faraj is the one
who will step into his shoes – temporarily at first, until the political
system calms down, and then permanently if he is elected president.
Daniel Siryoti
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/2018/09/20/who-will-succeed-aging-ailing-pa-leader-abbas/
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