by Dr. Alon Levkowitz
The inter-Korean negotiations and upcoming summits between Pyongyang and Seoul and President Trump offer a window of opportunity for Israel to try to prevent the continuation of North Korean military exports to the Middle East.
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,052, December 31, 2018
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The inter-Korean
negotiations and upcoming summits between Pyongyang and Seoul and
President Trump offer a window of opportunity for Israel to try to
prevent the continuation of North Korean military exports to the Middle
East. Israel should consider how and when to offer this initiative and
how to overcome the regional constraints. An Israeli initiative of this
kind could serve as a win-win situation for all parties.
In the early 1990s, Eitan Ben-Zur of the Israeli
foreign office tried to explore the possibility of a deal with North
Korea to halt its missile shipments to states in the Middle East that
pose a threat to Israel. The deal would have included indirect Israeli
economic assistance to Pyongyang to compensate it for the financial
losses it would incur from the cessation of those sales. The Ben-Zur
initiative was supported by Shimon Peres, the Israeli foreign minister.
In the end, the deal was not concluded due to a
disagreement between the Israeli foreign office and the Mossad about its
feasibility. Another barrier to the initiative was Washington’s
objection to Jerusalem’s involvement with Pyongyang at a time when the
US was trying to reach its own agreement with North Korea on the nuclear
issue. Washington was disturbed by the Jerusalem-Pyongyang contacts
despite the fact that Israel’s sole focus – missile shipments to the
Middle East – was not perceived by the Americans as a critical issue.
Almost three decades later, Washington is
negotiating with Pyongyang on an agreement that will include complete,
verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement (CVID) of its nuclear and
long-range missile programs. Again, as occurred during the 1990s
negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang, the agreement is not
expected to view military exports to the Middle East as a core issue.
The current improvement in relations among Seoul,
Pyongyang, and Washington does not include any mechanisms to verify and
prevent the continuation of military exports, such as missiles, from
North Korea to Syria and Iran. Israel does not have any leverage over
Washington or Pyongyang to force them to prevent the continuation of
North Korean military exports to the Middle East. That is why Jerusalem
should take the opportunity to try an updated Ben-Zur initiative towards
North Korea.
While Moon Jae-in might support such an initiative
because it would be congruent with his own North Korea policy,
Washington might object on the grounds that it would evade international
sanctions and decrease Washington’s pressure on Pyongyang. Israel
should therefore offer economic assistance to North Korea in
agriculture, medical technology, and green energy on condition that
Pyongyang starts to disarm itself. In so doing, Jerusalem could mitigate
Washington’s objections and might be able to gain both American and
South Korean support.
Israeli economic assistance to North Korea in
exchange for a verified cessation of military exports would compensate
Pyongyang for the losses it might face as a result of the decrease in
military exports to the Middle East. This would help Kim Jong-un and
Moon Jae-in legitimize their request to ease the sanctions on North
Korea in order to pursue further joint economic projects.
BESA Center Perspectives Papers are published through the generosity of the Greg Rosshandler Family
Dr. Alon Levkowitz, a research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, is an expert on East Asian security, the Korean Peninsula, and Asian international organizations.
Source: https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/israel-north-korea-opportunity/
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