by Seth J. Frantzman
Is Russia sending a message to Israel or to the US, or is someone else trying to create controversy? What is the goal of Iran here – or the Syrian regime or other regional powers?
Russia could be moving to pressure Israel to stop airstrikes in Syria.
Reports began to surface this weekend, beginning with an article at
London-based Asharq al-Awsat that cited a “well-informed” Russian
source.
The
report was carried in Turkey and other media in the region with
interest. According to these reports, Russia might even strengthen the
Syrian regime’s air defenses.
What
do the reports say? The Russian source hinted at the possibility of
“closing Syrian airspace” to Israeli planes, Asharq al-Awsat reported.
This comes in response to allegations that Israel has “intensified their
raids in the past two days against Iranian and Hezbollah sites in
northern and central Syria.”
Russia
released two statements in the wake of a raid “targeting a research
center in the countryside of Aleppo, and the other on a site for Iranian
forces to be stationed in Al-Qusayr, near Homs,” the report said.
“This
is directly related to the talks that were launched with the United
States following the first summit that brought together presidents Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden last
month,” the Russian source told the Arabic website, adding that “Moscow
was calculating its reactions in the past because Tel Aviv [Jerusalem]
is coordinating all its movements with Washington, while the Russian
communication channels with Washington were cut off, and it appeared,
from the current contacts with the American side, that Moscow obtained
confirmation that Washington does not welcome the continuous Israeli
raids.”
Russian
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (R) shakes hands with then US Vice
President Joe Biden during their meeting in Moscow March 10, 2011.
(photo credit: REUTERS/ALEXANDER NATRUSKIN/FILE PHOTO)The
report highlights a complex puzzle. “The Israelis felt that the air
defenses in Syria had been activated, and the fact that practically all
the launched missiles had been destroyed, indicates a fundamental change
in the mechanisms for dealing with this file and that Israel’s aviation
has not since entered the Syrian airspace and is carrying out attacks
from the ground,” the report said. Russia supposedly provided the Syrian
regime with “modern air defense.”
The
source went on to claim that Russia’s demands might involve closing off
“all possible targets” inside Syria. The author notes that in the past,
Moscow did not object to attacks on Iranian targets in Syria. It has
“run out of patience,” the article said, but then also quoted the
Russians as saying they are actually not impatient. This hints that
high-level talks with the US have some impact on the issue of staying
silent about Israeli airstrikes.
But
it is not clear from the article what is really going on. Why Moscow
would reveal to a newspaper that it heard the US does not “welcome the
continuous Israeli raids” is curious.
This
“impression left space for Russia to act more freely in supporting
Assad forces in Syria with more advanced anti-missile systems and
know-how, to make them more capable of shooting down Israeli armaments,”
the report said.
A
Turkish media said: “Israel has been targeting Iran-linked military
targets in the war-torn country’s regime-held areas with airstrikes
without entirely acknowledging doing so. The Israeli strikes have also
been repeatedly criticized by the Syrian regime ally Russia.”
Meanwhile,
reports said Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had asked Israel to
provide Russia with information on any Iranian threats in Syria so that
it could deal with them.
“If
Israel is really forced to respond to threats to Israeli security
coming from the Syrian territory, we have told our Israeli colleagues
many times: If you see such threats, please give us the information,”
Lavrov was quoted as saying by Russia’s Sputnik media.
Add
to this a third detail noting that airstrikes carried out earlier this
year “were carried out with intelligence provided by the US, a senior
American intelligence official told the Associated Press.”
This
leaves many questions: Is Russia sending a message to Israel or to the
US, or is someone else trying to create controversy between Russia and
Israel? What is the goal of Iran here – or the Syrian regime or other
powers in the region?
It
is known that Gulf countries, as well as Egypt, Iraq and Jordan, likely
want the Syrian regime to be stabilized and stronger so that it can
rejoin the network of Arab states in the region, after having been kept
out in the cold since 2011’s Arab Spring.
In
short, there are many interested parties eager to see Syria return as a
normalized state, and thus the free-for-all of airstrikes by various
countries in the beleaguered country may end. This would include a
desire to see the US and Israel reduce airstrikes and also have Turkey
stop destabilizing northern Syria.
It
would also likely mean wanting Iran to stop its entrenchment. Tehran
may have reduced forces in Syria slightly in recent years. However, Iran
has a network of facilities, such as Imam Ali base near the Iraqi
border and the T-4 base. It also backs militias, and Hezbollah has been
operating freely in Syria.
THE
OTHER interesting messaging here relates to Moscow’s apparent view that
the US also may be shifting its views on the airstrikes. It was widely
reported in January that the US was backing Israeli airstrikes in Syria.
The reports that the US wanted to work more closely with Israel in
Syria date from the period of former US president Donald Trump’s
administration and were tied to key figures in the administration who
appeared to approve of Israel’s policies in Syria, including Mike
Pompeo, John Bolton and US envoy James Jeffrey.
The key here is that Washington believed Israel’s “war between wars”
campaign was designed to prevent Iranian entrenchment in Syria and
weapons trafficking to Hezbollah, and it was important for US policy. In
years past, it was reported that Iran moved ballistic missiles to
pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and drones to Syria that threaten Israel
and that it sought to move precision-guided munitions to Hezbollah. Iran
also tried to move the 3rd Khordad air-defense system to Syria in April
2018.
There have
been tensions before. Syria shot down a Russian military plane in
September 2018, mistaking it for an Israeli jet. This angered Moscow,
and Jerusalem sent officials to discuss the crisis. Russia at the time
hinted it would send Syria the S-300 air-defense system.
There
were also reports at the time that Russia would try to keep Iranian
forces away from the Golan Heights as the Syrian regime retook areas
nearby. Hezbollah did set up sites near the Golan and sought to launch
drones against Israel in August 2019.
The
tensions with Syria have also led to other incidents, such as errant
Syrian air-defense missiles being fired wildly. One landed in the Negev
in April, and in 2017, Syria fired an S-200 at Israeli planes that flew
over Jordan.
In
November 2019, Moscow revealed alleged Israeli airstrikes, claiming
Israel flew over Jordan during a strike on Syria. In January 2019 and
February 2020, Russia also expressed concern to Israel about airstrikes
in Syria.
In light
of all this, the reports on July 24 about Russian views on Israeli
airstrikes in Syria could either reflect a policy change or more of the
same rhetoric as in the past. It could also be messaging to the US and
Iran.
Pro-Iranian
militias are increasingly operating in Syria and acquiring land and
basing. A member of the Fatemiyoun Brigade, a unit of Afghan Shi’ite
fighters that works with Iran in Syria, was reportedly killed in recent
airstrikes, according to Al-Hadath. Iran has been relatively quiet about
this, but pro-Iranian militias in Iraq have been upping threats to the
US and its forces in Iraq and Syria.
Seth J. Frantzman
Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/will-russia-try-to-close-syrian-airspace-to-further-israeli-airstrikes-674811
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