by Prof. Eyal Zisser
Not only has he survived his country's brutal civil war, in which he slaughtered hundreds of thousands of his own people, now even the Americans are ready to "get back to business" with him.
Bashar Assad has good reasons to celebrate his birthday over the weekend, beginning with September 11. After giving up on Afghanistan and withdrawing from it two decades after the twin tower attacks, the Americans also raised the white flag in Syria, leaving it in the hands of Assad and his allies.
To be sure, the rise of the Taliban and the renewal of Islamic State terrorist attacks isn't good news for the Syrian president, as it could encourage and inspire the Islamist groups still fighting him, the humiliation suffered by the Americans, who despite the fiasco in Afghanistan haven't lost their appetite for further retreats, is sufficient compensation.
In the shadow of Lebanon's deep economic crisis, and in light of the drastic oil and gas shortages disrupting everyday life in the country, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, together with his allies in Tehran, launched a brilliant public relations campaign. The Iranians, mediated by Hezbollah, will send oil to Lebanon. In doing so, they will demonstrate who truly cares for the Lebanese people in their hour of need, help Hezbollah, and also gain another foothold on Israel's northern front. Nasrallah even bothered to issue threats, which seemed to fall on attentive and even slightly alarmed ears in Israel, whereby if Iranian oil tankers are attacked he will consider it a violation of Lebanese sovereignty and respond in kind.
The Americans, therefore, concocted a deal in recent weeks intended to help their allies in Lebanon and extricate themselves from the honey trap laid by the Hezbollah leader. Instead of displaying resolve and leadership and stopping Iran's ploy, the Americans chose a winding road that led them straight into Assad's hands. They proposed that Jordan and Egypt transfer gas to Lebanon and also connect the country to their power grids. This will ease the suffering of the Lebanese people, and mainly allow the Lebanese government to reject the Iranian offer. The politicians in Lebanon – corrupt and inept, but aware of the damage that American sanctions can cause – eagerly leaped at the opportunity.
The problem is that the road from Egypt and Jordan goes through Syria, and to seal such a deal, the blessing of the Syrian president is required. This blessing was happily given – in exchange for American promises that Washington won't continue to object to his rule and intends to pull its troops from the country as soon as possible. This path, incidentally, also means the Americans will essentially have abandoned their Kurdish allies in Syria's north – who helped them fight ISIS – to the Damascus regime. The Americans are apparently determined to prove they have no friends, only interests – and when the latter trump the former, the friendship is over.
Consequently, as stated, Assad's birthday was indeed a happy one. Not only has he survived his country's brutal, bloody civil war, in which he slaughtered hundreds of thousands of his own people, some with gas, but now even the Americans have recognized his victory and are ready to "get back to business" with him. In Washington and in Israel, officials hope post-war Assad is maybe a "new" Assad, more attentive and cautious, perhaps even willing to make unrealistic deals – for example, booting Iran from Syria in exchange for American support. Hopes such as these, however, are destined to crash and shatter on the shores of reality. In the meantime, until the gas and electricity start flowing from Jordan and Egypt, Damascus has declared Syria's willingness to help Iran deliver the oil to Lebanon through its territory. After all, why dance at one wedding when you can dance at a few?
Prof. Eyal Zisser
Source: https://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/after-afghanistan-america-now-surrendering-to-assad/
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