by
Clarice Feldman
Energy supply and Taiwan -- two more challenges for Biden to bungle.
There’s scarcely a place in the modern world that will not be
feeling the high cost and discomfort of a shortage of energy supplies
and their increasingly soaring prices. Lebanon already is. Due to a
shortage of oil, the two power plants that supply 40% of that country’s
electricity shut down. There is no electricity in Lebanon and will not
be any for some days.
It’s an extreme case, but even the United
Kingdom, the EU, the U.S., and China are running up against diminishing
ability to obtain the necessary energy supplies to keep things running
smoothly. Some of the shortages are due to accidents, like the cutting
of an undersea cable to the UK, but most are due to green policies and
stupid political choices, ironically shutting down oil and gas-fired
power plants and fossil fuel exploitation and transport at the demand of
the greens, who grossly overestimate both global warming and the
ability of air, sun and water to take their place. Ironically,
this means coal -- the dirtiest possible fuel -- is back in huge demand,
Despite an import ban on Australian coal, China relented and has begun unloading Australian coal because of an extreme power crunch. Coal is now in demand in Europe as gas prices soar and the EU’s energy policies are in large responsible:
The ideological split will drive a wedge between the European Union, a
long-time champion of a coal phaseout, and corporate interests as
market conditions favour gas-to-coal switching. The switching ratio has
slid in coal’s favour in the last weeks of June 2021 and judging by the
current futures structure, it will stay in place until at least Q2-2022
[snip] Given the natural limitations to further coal utilization, in
Germany the main interaction in the upcoming weeks will be between coal
and wind. Coal-fired electricity generation rose to multi-year highs in
the first weeks of September when every single day saw wind generation
only a fraction of its usual strength and speed. Now, the situation has
changed somewhat as wind started blowing again, dropping hard coal
generation to an average generation rate of 7.5-8 GWh, still some 30-35%
higher than at this time of the year in 2020. Yet still, Germany’s
travails are far from over, especially with December looming large on
the horizon. According to preliminary plans, that month alone three
nuclear plants will stop operating in Germany -- Brokdorf, Grohnde and
Gundremmingen -- with a combined (non-intermittent) capacity of 4 GW,
representing the penultimate wave of nuclear phase-out closures before
2022 sees the last 3 reactors decommissioned. Such substantial capacity
would need to be replaced with either coal or gas, with profitability
skewed overwhelmingly towards the former. [snip]
The current coal demand surge should
force the European Union to reconsider its position on coal -- as
polluting as it might be, it could still help alleviate energy crunches
across Europe when the situation demands it. As things stand today, the
upcoming four years would see at least seven countries phasing out coal:
Portugal (2021), France (2022), UK (2024), Hungary, Italy, Ireland and
Greece (all 2025). As Europe has seen nine consecutive year-on-year
increases in aggregate coal burns, perhaps more switching flexibility
and less bans could still be the way forward.
It’s no secret that the cleanest most reliable fuel – nuclear -- was
murdered by the greens. Then natural gas, the second cleanest, became
their target, so now many places are desperate for coal, the dirtiest
option.
Noah Rothman agrees with me -- the greens are largely responsible for the present energy crunch and its consequences:
The intended consequence of these [Biden] policies was to
create artificial energy scarcity and incentivize alternative fuel
producers to enter the marketplace. “If you restrict the supply (of oil
and gas), you alter the market and you create a better environment for
more sustainable fuels,” New York University professor Max Sarinsky told
the Associated Press. This was all part of the plan, to the extent there was a plan.
So, yes, there’s a lot of blame to go around if what Friedman
forecasts to be a dark, cold, and scary winter materializes. No small
share of that blame should be apportioned out to the central planners
who sought to kneecap the existing energy market in favor of an
insufficient alternative.
Was there any point to the war on fossil fuels? Probably not. Judith
Curry, one of the most reliable climate researchers, explains how even
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) admits finally that
the dire climate models off of which they were working were in substantial error. The latest report (AR6) from the IPCC indicates previous models were predicting a hotter climate than warranted.
A substantial number of the CMIP6 models are running way too hot,
which has been noted in many publications. In its projections of 21st
century global mean surface temperatures, the AR6 provides ‘constrained’
projections (including climate models with reasonable values of climate
sensitivity that reasonably simulate the 20th century). [snip] With
regards to fitness for purpose of global/regional climate models for
climate adaptation decision making, an excellent summary is provided by a
team of scientists from the Earth Institute and Red Cross Climate
Center of Columbia University:
“Climate model projections are able to
capture many aspects of the climate system and so can be relied upon to
guide mitigation plans and broad adaptation strategies, but the use of
these models to guide local, practical adaptation actions is
unwarranted. Climate models are unable to represent future conditions at
the degree of spatial, temporal, and probabilistic precision with which
projections are often provided which gives a false impression of
confidence to users of climate change information.” (Nissan et al.)
GCMs [Global Climate Models] clearly have an important role to play
particularly in scientific research. However, driven by the urgent
needs of policy makers, the advancement of climate science is arguably
being slowed by the focus of resources on this one path of climate
modeling. The numerous problems with GCMs, and concerns that these
problems will not be addressed in the near future given the current
development path, suggest that alternative frameworks should be
explored. This is particularly important for the science-policy
interface.
Worldwide fuel shortages and rising costs aren’t the only concerns
this winter, and they aren’t the only concerns of China, whose
aggressive air flights near Taiwan and marine actions in the South China
Sea have unnerved many.
The CIA has been secretly training Taiwan forces to respond to any Chinese attacks. Marines and Special Forces have been training Taiwan troops for a year.
About two dozen members of U.S. special-operations and support troops
are conducting training for small units of Taiwan’s ground forces, the
officials said. The U.S. Marines are working with local maritime forces
on small-boat training. The American forces have been operating in
Taiwan for at least a year, the officials said.
The U.S. special-operations deployment is a sign of concern within
the Pentagon over Taiwan’s tactical capabilities in light of Beijing’s
years long military buildup and recent threatening moves against the
island.
Japan seems to be back constructing carriers to defend itself and its allies.
The
situation at the top of China and the U.S. makes these aggressions very
fraught with danger to the world. Xi’s efforts to deny the country’s
oligarchs power have melted down its markets.
Its power shortages have compelled Xi to order energy diverted from
factory production to homes this winter. And this is having a ripple effect throughout the economically globalized world.
Japan seems to be back constructing carriers to defend itself and its allies.
The
situation at the top of China and the U.S. makes these aggressions very
fraught with danger to the world. Xi’s efforts to deny the country’s
oligarchs power have melted down its markets.
Its power shortages have compelled Xi to order energy diverted from
factory production to homes this winter. And this is having a ripple effect throughout the economically globalized world.
The China power crunch also risks heaping further pressure on global
supply chains by pushing up prices for raw materials and essential
components.
“Global markets will feel the pinch of a shortage of supply from
textiles, toys to machine parts,” wrote Ting Lu, chief China economist
at Nomura Holdings, in a note to clients on Monday. He added that the
resulting supply shock will likely further push up global inflation,
especially in developed markets such as the U.S. The power curbs have
hit parts of China’s manufacturing bases, including those that produce
semiconductor-related goods. A global shortage of semiconductors this year has already hit car makers and other industries.
Steve Cooke, managing director of Cre8tive Brand Ideas Ltd., a
Solihull, England-based distributor of promotional merchandise such as
branded bags, clothing, pens and computer accessories, said he relies on
suppliers who source 80% of their products from China. Already this
year, rising freight costs and supply-chain bottlenecks have pushed up
his costs and lengthened delivery times for his customers. He said he
expects those pressures to intensify as the power crunch squeezes
production.
“We rely so much on China, it’s incredible,” he said.
Over at Gates of Vienna, H. Numan has a well-considered essay on why the current situation is
so dangerous to the world: China has
no
combat veterans and its leadership is largely people who paid for their
positions. Its military equipment is just adequate, mostly
reverse-engineered copies of stuff developed elsewhere.
The worldwide pandemic was caused by the CCP. The coal shortage is
entirely Chinese. The CCP embargoed Australia when it asked questions
about what China would do to compensate for the pandemic. They hoped to
beat Australia into submission. It didn’t work, and now major industries
and half the country face enormous blackouts. The winter (-20 C) has
yet to come. Incidentally, the embargo also covers Australian grain.
Really clever, when you already have severe food shortages.
The Chinese long-term policy is equally bad. The Belt and Road
Initiative proved to be a very costly failure. For two very obvious
reasons: shipping goods by rail isn’t going to replace shipping by sea.
One single container ship can carry more freight than a rail link
between Beijing and Rotterdam can carry in a full year, at a much lower
cost. The cutthroat negotiations and mafia tactics warned some nations
not to fall for it. Sri Lanka lost a port they
had build by the Chinese to the Chinese when they defaulted on payment.
Piraeus in Greece and the port of Darwin are/were Chinese owned.
Piraeus still is, Darwin was canceled. They even tried to buy the port
of Rotterdam.
Right now China is in the same position as Germany was before
starting WW2. Not enough money, and too many ambitious goals that cannot
be met. There are more than enough grudges from the past that only need
a little kindling before becoming a raging fire. [snip]
The problem with salami slicing is that you do get what you want, but
it is very expensive and takes a very long time. And you run the real
risk of losing it all. Germany sliced itself into Austria,
Czechoslovakia, and lost everything when they tried to slice the Danzig corridor.
China sort of has the same problems. And it ran out of peaceful
options. We’re in a very dangerous situation with Chinese
characteristics.
In Europe, only tiny Lithuania has taken on China, which may force the EU’s hand on Taiwan.
On Tuesday, the 27 EU leaders gathered for a dinner that involved a
discussion on EU-China relations, in which Lithuania's President Gitanas
Nausėda called on his peers to send a message of "unity" in the face of
China. The dinner ended up with what Borrell called "a very interesting debate."
“There is a big bipolarity between China and U.S. on one side, and on
the other side there’s a multipolarity of actors," he said. "And
Europeans have to act; Europeans have to create a common strategic
culture to share the challenges they’re facing.”
While the EU's strategic compass is still being drawn up, one thing
is clear: In facing off against Beijing, Lithuania -- population 2.8
million -- has pushed the subject of Taiwan and relations with China
more prominently onto the EU’s agenda in a way that leaders in Beijing
and many European capitals have been avoiding for years.
And, for the moment at least, Vilnius shows no signs of backing down.
As for the U.S. Stephen Bryen details President Biden’s puzzling mumbles about his conversation with Xi on Taiwan.
President Joe Biden, on Tuesday, October 5th, said that he had spoken
to Chinese President Xi Jinping and both of them had agreed to “stick
to” the “Taiwan agreement.”
The only known recent conversation between Biden and Xi took place on September 9th. The “read out” provided
by the White House says nothing either about Taiwan or the Taiwan
agreement. So we are left rather in the dark about what
transpired. Even so, given Mr. Biden’s statement about the “Taiwan
agreement,” his statement is extremely worrisome.
The nature of that conversation and Mr. Biden’s description was not
lost on the Taiwanese or the Japanese, so much so that the State
Department moved immediately to clarify its meaning to Taiwan’s
President. That would not have been necessary if the State Department
was not alarmed by what President Biden said.
Japan also announced that it would come to Taiwan’s aid if
Taiwan was attacked. [snip] Mr. Biden has to be put straight on U.S.
policy. He should also be clear in speaking to the Chinese that their
incursions by air and sea around Taiwan are unacceptable and will be met
firmly by counter action by the United States. If Mr. Biden fails to
do that, it will cause major problems for America’s posture in east Asia
and will be damaging not only to Taiwan, but also to Japan and other
U.S. friends in the region. In fact, if we do not deter China, the risk
of war escalates.
Greg Gutfeld has a point. Watching Biden on energy policies and relations with China, Biden is a unifier, ”We all think he’s nuts.”
To comment, you can find the MeWe post for this article here.
Clarice Feldman
Source: https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2021/10/green_policies_return_the_world_to_coal.html
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