by Amb. (ret.) Yoram Ettinger
The maritime /gas accord is a victory of Western conventional wisdom over Middle East reality, sacrificing long-term national security on the altar of short-term gratification.
The US-engineered and guaranteed Israel-Lebanon maritime/gas
accord is supposed to follow in the footsteps of the Israel-Arab peace
treaties with Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and
Morocco, reducing regional terrorism and instability, inducing
moderation and enhancing US interests. Does it?
Hezbollah and Lebanon
*The
Shiite Hezbollah - Iran's proxy and globally recognized terrorist
organization – is a dominant player in the increasingly imploding,
failed-state, Lebanon, politically, militarily, socially, educationally,
religiously and journalistically.
Hezbollah has dramatically
bolstered its capabilities and clout since its establishment in 1982 –
by Iran's Shiite Ayatollahs - as a vehicle to export the Shiite Islamic
Revolution, extend the Ayatollahs' reach from the Persian Gulf, through
Iraq, Syria and Lebanon to the eastern Mediterranean, and undermine the
US strategic posture in the Middle East.
Hezbollah has
collaborated with Iran's Ayatollahs in the Middle East, West Africa and
throughout Latin America, all the way to the US-Mexico border. It has
gained substantial sway due to its major contribution to the survival of
the Assad regime. Hezbollah has benefited from the Ayatollahs'
financial support, combat training, and the supply of precise missiles
and predator unmanned aerial vehicles.
*Hezbollah's dominant role
in Lebanon's decision-making has led the pro-US Saudi Arabia, the
United Arab Emirates and Bahrain to ostracize Lebanon and suspend
financial aid to Beirut, lest it bolsters Hezbollah's stature.
Israel's maritime accord vs. Israel-Arab peace treaties
*Israel's
peace treaties with the relatively-stable, pro-US, anti-Iran and
anti-terrorist Sunni Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain
and Morocco, with the blessing of Saudi Arabia, which generated a
critical impetus to the Abraham Accords. Their policy and vision do not
extend beyond their own national boundaries.
On the other hand,
the maritime/gas accord was concluded with the uncontrollable Lebanon,
which is afflicted by intrinsic religious, ethnic and political
fragmentation, that has been leveraged by the violently domineering,
anti-US, pro-Iran Hezbollah, a major arm of Islamic terrorism in the
Middle East, west Africa and Latin America. Hezbollah is dedicated to
advancing the fanatic vision of a universal Shiite Moslem society,
through the exportation of the Ayatollahs' Shiite Islamic Revolution,
toppling all Sunni ("apostate" and "heretic") Sunni regimes,
transforming the Republic of Lebanon into the Islamic Republic of
Lebanon, a province of a universal Shiite Islamic entity, and bringing
the "infidel" West (especially "the Great American Satan) to submission.
*The
Abraham Accords were signed with regimes, which have accepted
peaceful-coexistence with Israel and are focused on domestic stability,
including economic growth.
Nonetheless, the maritime/gas accord
was concluded with a country, dominated by Hezbollah, which perceives
peaceful-coexistence with the Jewish state and its Sunni Arab neighbors
an anathema to its fanatic vision, and has made it clear – since
establishment – that its ideology supersedes financial and diplomatic
benefits.
The conventional Western wisdom that Hezbollah will
choose economic benefits over ideology should be assessed against the
backdrop of the track record of Iran's Ayatollahs and their adherence to
their core ideology irrespective of the mega-billion-dollars of Western
gifts, showered upon them by the US and the West since 1979. In
addition, the Palestinian Authority and Hamas have exhibited
faithfulness to hate-education, incitement and terrorism,
notwithstanding the unprecedented geographic, diplomatic and financial
concessions made by Israel, the US and the world at-large.
*The
Abraham Accords were concluded with Arab regimes, which consider Israel
as a most effective military and technological ally in the face of
lethal threats and in their pursuit of economic diversification.
While
these Arab regimes are not fully-reconciled to the existence of an
"infidel" Jewish sovereignty in the "abode of Islam" (the Middle East),
they do not consider it a top priority, realizing the potential Israeli
contribution to their survival. Moreover, some of them (especially the
UAE) are moderating their education curriculum and policy toward Israel,
rethinking Islam's fundamental view of the Jewish people and the Jewish
State.
On the other hand, Hezbollah and their masters in Tehran,
consider Israel as a loathsome entity, religiously and strategically,
to be uprooted, in order to advance their fanatic, religious,
megalomaniacal vision.
They recognize the Jewish State as the
most effective beachhead of "The Great American Satan," culturally and
strategically, and a powerful ally of the "apostate" Sunni Arab regimes.
*All
Israel-Arab peace treaties resulted from a deep appreciation, by the
Arab partners, of Israel's military, technological and diplomatic
capabilities, including its military defiance of Iran and Hezbollah, and
its ability to fend off US pressure, which have demonstrated Israel's
willingness to assume short-term setbacks, in order to benefit from
long-term national security benefits. The pro-US Arab regimes consider
Israel's posture of deterrence as a key component of their own national
security.
On the other hand, the maritime/gas accord, was brokered by the US under the
assumption that an Israeli giveaway of the entire
area in dispute (330 square miles of economic water and 10 square miles
of sovereign water) would avert a Hezbollah threat to launch an attack
of missiles and predator unmanned vehicles. In other words, a sweeping
capitulation, rather than confrontation and preemption of a terrorist
threat.
*The maritime/gas accord – which reflects the State
Department worldview that concessions made to terrorists could induce
moderation - has eroded Israel's posture of deterrence, which has
transformed Israel (since 1967) into the most productive
force-multiplier for the US, and a desirable ally of the pro-US Arab
regimes, in the face of lethal threats.
The bottom line
*The
US architects of the maritime/gas accord and their Israeli partners
overlook the fact that terrorists bite the hands that feed them. For
example, the Mujahideen defeated the Soviets in Afghanistan due to US
support, and were quick to launch a major terror offensive against the
US in the Middle East and in the US itself. Furthermore, Iran's
Ayatollahs seized power in Iran due to US support, and then became the
lead epicenter of global anti-US terrorism. Moreover, the Palestinian
Authority and Hamas responded to unprecedented Israeli gestures in 1993
(the Oslo Accord) and 2005 (the disengagement from Gaza) with unprecedented hate-education, incitement and terrorism.
*The
US architects and their Israeli partners have ignored the fact that
concessions to terrorists – just like any other rogue entity - whets
their appetite and intensifies terrorism.
*The maritime /gas
accord represents a victory of Western conventional wisdom over Middle
East reality, sacrificing long-term national security on the altar of
short-term gratification, which plays into the hands of rogue entities
(e.g., Iran's Ayatollahs, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Palestinian Authority),
undermining the homeland and national security of Western democracies
(e.g., the US, Europe and Israel).
Bolstering the Ayatollahs while Iranians are rising against them
*At
a time, when most Iranians, and especially Iranian women, are rising
against the repressive regime of the Ayatollahs, demanding
regime-change, the US-engineered maritime/gas accord bolsters the
Ayatollahs' geo-strategic posture, while repeating the critically
erroneous policy of 2009, when the US ignored the popular uprising in
Iran, allowing the Ayatollahs to butcher its unarmed citizens.
*The
US-engineered maritime/gas accord provides a tailwind to the Ayatollahs
and their Hezbollah proxy, while ruling out active support of the
regime-change movement in Iran; waiving an essential US military option
(which is the only way to test the Ayatollahs' intentions); sustaining
the self-destructive diplomatic option (which has bolstered the
Ayatollahs' fortunes since their ascension to power in February 1979);
assuming that the Ayatollahs are potentially good-faith negotiators; and
viewing the Ayatollahs as if they were amenable to
peaceful-coexistence, abandoning their 1,400-year-old fanatic,
imperialistic vision, in return for another financial and diplomatic
bonanza, which is currently offered – by the US - to Tehran.
*Against
the backdrop of the aforementioned data, the US-engineered maritime/gas
accord, is an extension of the well-intentioned US policy in the Middle
East, which has been at odds with Middle East reality, intensifying regional terrorism and instability and eroding US posture and interests.
Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, a popular speaker in Israel and abroad, is author of "Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative" and can be read at https://bit.ly/3bRukYB
Source: https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/361414
No comments:
Post a Comment