by Seth J. Frantzman
Damascus claims it is firing at missiles and downing them, but continues to strike allied craft and civilian objects. Why do Syrians fire their SAMs so wildly?
Syrian air-defense systems fired wildly against what foreign reports said were Israeli airstrikes on Friday.
“The
Israeli enemy launched an aerial attack... targeting positions near
Damascus and around the city of Homs,” a Syrian regime media outlet
reported.
The
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a London-based group, said four
pro-Iranian fighters allied to the Damascus regime were killed. Syrian
air defenses supposedly downed “hostile targets,” with Russian military
sources leaking that 22 Israeli missiles were shot down.
But
Syrian air defenses also fired wildly, with shrapnel and debris falling
over Jordan and Israel, according to varying reports. This was
apparently debris from a Syrian S-200. Two commercial airliners also had
to divert during the Syrian air-defense operations.
An
S-300 air defense missile system launches a missile during the
International Army Games 2017 outside Astrakhan, Russia August 5, 2017
(credit: REUTERS/MAXIM SHEMETOV)Russia
has been more outspoken recently about these strikes. Another Israeli
airstrike was interdicted by Syrian air defense, Moscow said on July 24.
Russia has indicated that 22 of the 24 missiles fired at Syria on
Friday were shot down.
Moscow
has also been increasingly vocal in its opposition to the strikes. In
November 2019, Russia also opened up about alleged Israeli airstrikes in
Syria, claiming that Israel had even overflown Jordan.
“Our
air defense responded to the missiles and shot most of them down,” a
Syrian air-defense source said after Friday’s incident.
Syrian air defenses, which consists of S-200s, Pantir 22 and other systems, have been known to fire wildly in the past.
Russia
has said it might provide Syria better S-300s after a Syrian S-200 shot
down a Russian IL-20 plane in September 2018. The Syrians claimed they
were shooting at Israeli warplanes but missed and killed Russians,
causing an international incident.
A
Syrian S-200 missile flew over Jordan in March 2017, activating
Israel’s Arrow air defense. In July 2020, a Syrian air-defense missile
allegedly fell near Kafr Asad, Jordan. This January, a similar incident
allegedly happened near Ajloun, Jordan.
In
July 2019, a Syrian air-defense missile flew all the way to Northern
Cyprus. Another such missile flew deep into southern Israel this April,
triggering sirens near Dimona.
If
we look at the background of these stray missiles, it appears clear
that they are increasing as Syrian air defense apparently attempts to
more robustly defend Syria.
The
first major incident was in March 2017. In 2018, Syria shot down the
Russian airplane. Then there was the 2019 incident in Cyprus. In 2020,
there may have been another incident in Jordan, and in 2021, there have
been several incidents.
Are
Syrian missiles being used more regularly, and are they using new
guidance, supplies or radar? Or are they purposely firing them at
targets that are farther away?
Modern
air-to-surface missiles can be fired from the standoff, meaning that in
many cases, airstrikes are not carried out by aircraft over a target,
but rather missiles are launched from 100 km. or even farther away. That
means air defenses may be triggered at longer ranges as well.
But
there are questions because Syria claims it is firing at missiles and
downing them. If so, why are its air-defense missiles flying so far
away? Are they just stray missiles that continue on their track because
they don’t find a target?
In
the absence of knowledge about Syrian air-defense strategy and its
precise capabilities, it may not be possible to know. What is known is
that Syrian air defense apparently continues to fire wildly at what it
thinks are incoming missiles and enemy planes.
Seth J. Frantzman
Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/syrian-air-defense-again-shoot-wildly-at-israeli-airstrikes-analysis-677414
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