by Yaakov Lappin
It is not clear this enforcement goes far enough, Professor Uzi Rabi tells JNS.
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The scene where two Israeli soldiers were wounded
by a Hezbollah bomb on Mount Dov in the Golan Heights on Oct. 7, 2014.
Credit: Flash90. |
Violations of the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon by Hezbollah have led to Israeli enforcement actions in Southern Lebanon, with Israeli defense officials stressing a zero-tolerance policy toward such breaches.
Since the truce deal was reached on Nov. 27, the IDF has reported near-daily breaches by Hezbollah of the arrangement banning it from being in Southern Lebanon or operationally active against Israel there. Israel has also vowed to take action to disrupt attempts to resupply Hezbollah with weapons anywhere in Lebanon, as well as in neighboring Syria.
Professor Uzi Rabi, a senior researcher and the head of the program for Regional Cooperation at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, told JNS on Tuesday that while Israel has been enforcing the truce arrangement, it is not clear that Israel is going far enough.
“I see Hezbollah’s violations as something that requires a sharp Israeli response,” he said.
“There have been [IDF] attacks on some 40 targets, but it still wasn’t Beirut or more strategic targets,” Rabi said. “I think Israel is missing something here. One of the aspects in the [first] 60 days of ceasefire is a kind of test case. Does Israel change? We do not expect Hezbollah to change. The question is whether Israel has changed, and Israel has an opportunity, to respond with a hammer to every nail.
“Currently, it has responded perhaps a bit more than in the past, but in my opinion, it’s not enough,” Rabi assessed. “Hezbollah will continue to provoke here and there. It will of course be cautious. Note that it’s firing at Mount Dov [in the Golan Heights], and not elsewhere [in Israel]. It will be careful because he doesn’t want to give Israel an excuse to do harsher things,” Rabi argued.
Ultimately, the ceasefire is likely to hold, he said. “The big question is what will happen when Trump arrives [in office on Jan. 20], and then the situation could change completely. There are big questions about what happens with Iran. Note what Trump said yesterday about the hostages and Gaza,” Rabi added.
“We need to understand that all the players in the Middle East, including Israel, are trying to prepare themselves so that when Trump arrives, they will be ready,” he said.
Iran, Hezbollah and Syria
When asked about Iran’s role and whether it is advising Hezbollah to maintain a low profile, and whether this would hold even if Israel struck Iran’s nuclear sites, Rabi replied, “Hezbollah is quite battered, but it will always return with what it has because it is a ‘resistance’ organization,” Rabi said. “But remember, there is a new unknown here. You have Syria. Let’s assume the rebels are getting stronger and someone is strengthening them. Iran will not be able, in the end, to look only at Israel and Hezbollah, but will have to look at northwestern Syria because these are very difficult enemies there for Iran and Hezbollah.”
On Dec. 2, Hezbollah terrorists fired two mortar shells at Mount Dov. The shells hit open areas. In response, the Israeli Air Force struck dozens of rocket launchers and terrorist infrastructure across Lebanon that same evening, as well as the launcher in the Berghoz area of Southern Lebanon used to attack Mount Dov.
“The State of Israel demands that the relevant parties in Lebanon fulfill their responsibilities and prevent Hezbollah’s hostile activity from within Lebanese territory. The State of Israel remains obligated to the fulfillment of the conditions of the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon,” the IDF said in a statement.
That same day, the IDF chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, conducted a situational assessment in the Northern Command. He then toured the Southern Lebanon region on Dec. 3. “We have stopped at several locations and see the very thorough operations that have been carried out in the fight against Hezbollah. Many terrorists have been eliminated, infrastructure has been destroyed in all arenas, and we are seizing large amounts of weapons and taking them into Israeli territory,” said Halevi.
“I assume that in the coming days, Hezbollah will discover that many of their operatives have been eliminated here in recent weeks,” he continued. “This is what we are seeing in the villages located deeper in Lebanon. Here, in the first circle of closer villages, there are no operatives. What was here has been destroyed.
“IDF forces are very careful about maintaining the ceasefire, and from here, as we look southward at northern Israeli communities, the mission is to ensure that this region does not revert to being an area of terrorist infrastructure but rather remains a safe zone. The IDF is operating very thoroughly and very professionally here,” Halevi said.
A stern warning
Defense Minister Israel Katz issued a stern warning to the Lebanese government during a visit to the northern border on Dec. 3, stating, “If the ceasefire collapses—there will no longer be an exemption for the State of Lebanon; we will enforce the agreement with maximum response and zero tolerance; if until now we separated between Lebanon and Hezbollah—this will no longer be.'”
“Yesterday was a first test, firing toward Mount Dov as if it’s outside the usual debate or subject to interpretation. From our point of view, it’s not subject to any interpretation. We responded with force, and that’s exactly what we will do, and we will not allow Hezbollah to return to the old methods that were, like the tent that was placed and not attacked. We are not in those places at all. Everything that was will not be.”
On Dec. 2, the IDF reported that it had operated in Southern Lebanon in response to several acts by Hezbollah that posed a threat to Israeli civilians, including strikes on several military vehicles that were operating in the area of a Hezbollah missile manufacturing site in the Beqaa Valley, eastern Lebanon. The IDF also struck weapons smuggling sites on the Syrian-Lebanon border in the Hermel area, which were being used in violation of the ceasefire understandings, the military said.
On Dec. 3, the Israeli Air Force killed a Hezbollah operative in Damascus, named later by the IDF as Salman Nemer Jamaa, who was a key figure in coordinating weapons smuggling from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
On Dec. 1, the IDF announced that it identified several armed terrorists adjacent to a church in Khiam, Southern Lebanon, that was actively used by the Hezbollah throughout the war. Military sources confirmed that the site had been a fixed site of operations by Hezbollah, whose operatives fired on the IDF from there both before and after the truce went into effect. IDF ground troops fired on the terrorists, who were part of Hezbollah’s ground defense array, anti-tank missile unit and artillery units. The terrorists were eliminated, and the soldiers who searched the church located a tunnel containing weapons.
On Nov. 30, the Israel Defense Forces reported that it acted during the day against activities in Lebanon that posed a threat to the State of Israel, violating the ceasefire understandings. It reported seeing armed terror operatives loading a vehicle with RPGs, boxes of ammunition and other military equipment. The IAF struck the vehicle. Additionally, Hezbollah terrorists were identified approaching Hezbollah structures in Southern Lebanon, drawing airstrikes.
Furthermore, terrorist activity in a Hezbollah facility with rocket launchers was identified in the area of Sidon in Southern Lebanon, sparking additional IAF strikes.
Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He is
the in-house analyst at the Miryam Institute; a research associate at
the Alma Research and Education Center; and a research associate at the
Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University. He is a
frequent guest commentator on international television news networks,
including Sky News and i24 News. Lappin is the author of Virtual Caliphate: Exposing the Islamist State on the Internet. Follow him at: www.patreon.com/yaakovlappin.
Source: https://www.jns.org/israeli-will-to-enforce-lebanon-understandings-put-to-the-test/
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