by Shimon Sherman
The conflict with Iran “is not just Israel’s war, but the entire Western world’s,” said former Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Danny Ayalon.
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| Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presents a trove of Iranian documents on Tehran's nuclear program at a press conference in Tel Aviv, April 30, 2018. Photo by Miriam Alster/Flash90. |
On Oct. 7, 2023, Iran’s fortunes were on the rise. Tehran had a vast and powerful arsenal of radicalized proxies spreading wider and wider through the Middle East. The Islamic Republic had ever-warming ties with Moscow and Beijing and found itself on the leading edge of the globally significant conflict in Ukraine.
In the background, passively facilitating all these developments, was a docile administration in the White House, which seemed intent on ignoring Iranian ambitions and even occasionally forwarding them (such as by freeing billions of dollars in previously frozen assets for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s use).
Fast forward to today and the Iranians find themselves in a starkly different reality. The Axis of Resistance lies in rubble as one pawn after another has been removed from the board by the Israel Defense Forces. The only reliable proxy left to them is the Houthis in Yemen, which seem destined to be taken off the board in the coming months.
Russia, meanwhile, seems bogged down in Ukraine and has demonstrated a lack of interest in the Middle East after allowing its long-term ally, Bashar Assad of Syria, to be toppled by a group of ragtag rebels. Furthermore, the incoming U.S. president, Donald Trump, has vowed to reinstall the “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, which is certain to include crippling sanctions and likely military force.
“The Iranians are facing a dilemma that they have never faced before because their entire strategy has been based on the Axis of Resistance and that strategy is now collapsing,” Alexander Grinberg, an expert on Iran at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS), told JNS.
Grinberg further explained that the regime in Iran is plagued with rigid thinking.
“The Iranians have a fundamental strategic problem. They do not know how to plan for unexpected circumstances. They have a plan A but can’t even talk about a plan B or a plan C, because even considering the option that the original plan won’t work would be to question the wisdom of the ayatollah, which is unacceptable,” Grinberg said.
“You can see that the Iranian elites are in disarray and are blaming each other, pointing fingers because they know something is wrong, but they can’t point their finger at the only person who is truly responsible.”
Regional developments have placed Iran in the dangerous role of a wounded animal desperately looking for a way out of its predicament. This new reality is particularly menacing considering Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Dueling analytical narratives have emerged regarding Iran’s future, with some arguing that Tehran’s feeble condition will force it to dial back its aggression, and others claiming that it is likely to attempt a nuclear breakout in the near future to secure the regime.
The nuclear option
There is strong evidence that the Iranians are likely to push for a nuclear weapon instead of embracing a more moderate approach.
“You have to understand whom you’re dealing with. The ayatollahs in Iran are a criminal regime that is incorrigible and dead set on destroying the West and Israel,” former Israeli Ambassador to the United States Danny Ayalon told JNS.
According to Grinberg, rumblings of a shift towards the nuclear option have been increasing in Iran ever since the war began to go badly for the ayatollahs following the first direct Iranian attack on Israel in 2024.
“Ever since April, they have been hinting that this option may be on the table because from their perspective the situation is changing very rapidly,” Grinberg said.
The most recent of these “hints” came just last week when Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told reporters in Beijing that “2025 will be an important year regarding Iran’s nuclear issue.”
In practical terms, Iran has clearly ramped up its efforts to produce a nuclear weapon in recent weeks. According to Grinberg, the development of a nuclear bomb requires several components: sufficient enriched uranium, a fissile explosive that can detonate the bomb, a precise delivery platform and a nuclear test.
On the uranium front, the United Nations chief nuclear inspector reported that Iran has quadrupled its production of 60% enriched uranium, which is considered near-bomb-grade material. Rafael M. Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, called it “a dramatic acceleration” and added that “our inspectors are on the sites confirming that the process has indeed started.”
Furthermore, the Iranian regime has recently ramped up efforts to produce a fissile explosive for nuclear detonation. According to the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), multiple embedded sources have confirmed significantly increased activity from METFAZ, the Iranian research group responsible for developing the detonation technology.
“Our information shows that METFAZ has expanded its activities, and their main focus is the detonation of the nuclear bomb,” Alireza Jafarzadeh, deputy director of the NCRI, said in a recent interview with Fox News. “It’s important to see what METFAZ does and follow its activities, because that is sort of like a gauge on figuring out where the whole nuclear-weapons program is.”
The NCRI report also noted severely increased activity at the Sanjarian nuclear site, located roughly 25 miles east of Tehran. While the site was mostly abandoned since 2009, NCRI reported consistent sightings of METFAZ-affiliated nuclear scientists at Sanjarian since April 2024.
The pressure on Iran to develop a weapon is further compounded by an unstable home front. The Iranian economy finds itself in free fall, with the Iranian rial dropping 18% compared to the dollar since Nov. 5 and the inflation rate standing at 35%. General dissatisfaction with the regime is at an all-time high.
“The people of Iran are angry at their government and regimes can fall very fast when the people turn against them,” Ayalon explained.
Grinberg pointed out that the regime in Tehran may see a nuclear weapon as a form of security against regime change: “The best way to truly secure invincibility for the regime would be to go nuclear. You can see a similar model in North Korea.”
The long-term strategy
Despite clear steps to reinvigorate its nuclear program, there are also some signals that Iran may prefer a more passive approach to weather the storm it currently finds itself in. Iran has already put out feelers to the incoming Trump administration in an attempt to reduce the chance of direct military confrontation with the United States over the nuclear issue.
In mid-November, Iran’s U.N. ambassador met with Elon Musk, a top adviser to Trump, in an attempt to reduce tensions between the two countries.
“They are terrified of Trump, but they never lose hope that perhaps some arrangement can be made. They are testing the waters and are working in several directions, as can be seen in their meeting with Musk,” Grinberg explained.
Iran may also choose to focus on rebuilding its broken proxy network, rather than gambling everything on a last-ditch attempt to push for a nuclear weapon.
As Ayalon explained, “Iran has less control over the Houthis or the Iraqi militias than it does over Hezbollah. Their proxy policy in Yemen and Iraq is therefore more complicated and not as dependable for the regime in Tehran.”
In that context, Grinberg believes, Iran may choose to focus on reinvigorating Hezbollah and repairing its broken Syrian corridor for supplying the Lebanese terror group with munitions.
“Iran can conceptually in the long term try to rebuild their bridge to Hezbollah through Syria by establishing some kind of relations with the new Syrian government. This is a very long process. It is pretty unlikely and very complicated, because HTS [Hayat Tahrir al-Sham] and Iran have been fighting each other in a bloody war for many years. However, if you look at a case like the Taliban you can see that the Iranian regime is capable of establishing some sort of relationship even with extreme groups that are not naturally aligned with Iran,” Grinberg explained. “You can already see some hints from Iranian media of ideas of establishing relationships down the road with HTS.”
Other reports indicate that Iran may try to build out an air corridor to Lebanon, rather than shipping supplies overland through Syria.
In any case, investing in projects of this nature may indicate a more long-term strategy for the regime in Tehran.
Taking out the nuclear program
Regardless of Iran’s intentions, in recent months, Jerusalem and the incoming Trump administration have signaled that they will not tolerate Iran’s nuclear program for much longer. As Iran’s breakout window contracts, pressure is building to deal a decisive blow. The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, the destruction of Hezbollah and the re-emergence of potentially eager U.S. partners have presented a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to end the existential threat of a nuclear Iran.
Despite the favorable conditions, carrying out such an operation would be complicated to execute.
“Iran is not just Israel’s war, but the entire Western world’s,” Ayalon told JNS. “Israel can take out Iran’s nuclear program alone, but it would be a lot more difficult. It would be much better to do this in a unity coalition led by the United States and with other partners. The Iranian nuclear program is very advanced and very complicated, with many underground bunkers and sites, and to take all of it out may require a long campaign.”
Shimon Sherman
Source: https://www.jns.org/irans-push-for-a-nuclear-bomb-a-wounded-animal-is-most-dangerous/
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