by Jonathan Spyer
BEHIND THE LINES: The Turkish foreign minister said, “We see that the SDF has no real intention of making significant progress in the negotiations on integration with the Damascus administration.”
 |
Clashes in the north Syrian city of Aleppo left two civilians dead this week. They broke out after fighters associated with the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) fired on the Kurdish majority neighborhoods of Sheikh Maksoud and Ashrafiyeh, according to sources close to the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
The Asayish, the SDF’s internal security force, which is deployed in the two neighborhoods, responded to the fire. For its part, SANA, the official Syrian government news agency, asserted that the SDF had initiated the exchanges.
The clashes immediately followed a visit by Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan to Damascus, where he met with his Syrian counterpart, Assad Shibani. In the course of the visit, Fidan harshly criticized the SDF for its failure to rapidly integrate into the armed forces of the government of Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa.
At a joint press conference with Shibani, the Turkish foreign minister said, “We see that the SDF has no real intention of making significant progress in the negotiations on integration with the Damascus administration.”
He added that “the fact that the SDF carries out some of its activities in coordination with Israel currently represents a major obstacle in the discussions being held with Damascus.”
But the Turkish foreign minister’s comments were instructive in that they indicated Turkey’s continued focus on the Syrian issue – and in particular Ankara’s ambition to bring about the reunification of the country under centralized rule from Damascus.
Syria integration stalls as year-end deadline looms
Turkey continues to regard the US-aligned SDF as indistinguishable from the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), which Ankara designates as a terrorist organization.An agreement has been in place since March 10 this year, which establishes the ambition that the SDF should integrate into the new armed forces of the Syrian Transitional Government. But negotiations intended to finalize the details of integration have failed to produce an agreement.
A deadline for agreeing on a plan for the integration of the SDF was set for the end of this year. But with talks stalled, there appears to be no prospect of it being met.
The deadlock comes despite claims earlier this year that a breakthrough was imminent. According to reporting at that time, an agreement according to which the SDF would join the New Syrian Army to form a separate division, comprising three brigades which would be deployed in the current area of SDF control, was close to being agreed.
Since Sharaa’s visit to the US, however, no further progress has been made. A senior SDF official, Aldar Khalil, interviewed by al-Monitor website on November 28, said:
“We then understood that before going to Washington, they wanted to create an image that things are moving so that when President Trump asked them, they could respond, ‘Things are moving.’ They are trying to buy time, and they refuse to sign a document listing any of the terms they say they have agreed to. We want signatures.”
Neither this week’s clashes nor the stalling of the negotiations should come as a surprise. The impasse between the Syrian National Government and the SDF reflects the diametrically opposed nature of their respective projects.
The Damascus government wants a unitary, centralized, declaredly Arab Syria, as is laid out in Sharaa’s constitutional declaration of March 13. According to this document, Islam will form the country’s official religion and be its main source of legislation.
The SDF, meanwhile, a secular force, favors a decentralized system while maintaining freedom of religious worship in the 30% of Syria under their control. The issue of women’s rights and representation forms a central element.
It is difficult to see two such entities successfully coexisting, let alone merging by consensus into a single unit. Rather, the natural state of affairs between these two authorities would be a kind of zero-sum game, in which the advancement of the one must surely be contrary to the will and the interests of the other.
Behind the declarations of peaceful intentions, this is precisely the dynamic that prevails.
Sharaa and the HTS began the year with a very strong hand. Having achieved a swift and relatively bloodless seizure of power, the new Syrian president met with Trump in May and appeared to be rapidly on the way to consolidating his rule over the entirety of the country.
At that time, many analysts predicted that the US partnership with the SDF, forged during the war against ISIS, belonged to an earlier period and would soon be terminated.
According to this view, the remaining US forces in Syria would soon be redeployed, as the new government extended its authority across the country. A number of events, however, have taken place in the course of the year, which have served to impede this process.
Firstly, three episodes of bloody ethno-sectarian violence have occurred. In February, it was directed against the Alawi population in the western coastal area, and then in May – and on a much larger scale in July – against the Druze in the south.
The involvement of elements of the new government’s security forces in sectarian massacres, and the apparent intention of Damascus to re-badge some notorious jihadi leaders as commanders in the new armed forces, have slowed enthusiasm for the new authorities.
The UK, for example, this week announced sanctions against two pro-government militia leaders implicated in the violence this year – Mohammed al-Jasim and Saif Boulad ‘Abu Bakr.’ Both men are currently registered as commanders in the New Syrian Army, commanding divisions 62 and 76, respectively.
The recent killings of three US service personnel by a member of the new government’s security forces while deployed with the latter in the Palmyra area have further led to skepticism.
None of this shows any signs of bringing about a major change in the American-and-Western outlook toward the government in Syria. But it does add a layer of ambiguity. This, in turn, increases the disinclination on the part of the SDF toward relinquishing any hard power capacity to Damascus, given recent events, along with a growing hope that such concessions may not be necessary.
Ultimately, everything depends on the stance of the United States. The forces available to Damascus are currently not strong enough to issue a general challenge to the SDF. The Turks, meanwhile, their foreign minister’s harsh words notwithstanding, cannot undertake any military operation without at least a tacit nod from the US.
Given the presence of US forces in the SDF-controlled area, the continued partnership of the US with the SDF against ISIS, and, not least, the presence of tens of thousands of ISIS prisoners in SDF-managed detention facilities, such approval is unlikely to be imminent.
The stance of the US in the period ahead remains unpredictable. For now, at least, further localized clashes between Damascus’s forces and those of the SDF seem likely. In the longer term, the likelihood that the current Islamist authorities in Damascus will fail to bring about stability and ordered government looks set to play to the SDF’s advantage.
Jonathan Spyer
Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-881418
No comments:
Post a Comment