By Y. Yehoshua, I. Rapoport, Y. Mansharof, A. Savyon and Y. Carmon*
2nd part of 2
The Role of the NIE Report in the Collapse of the Saudi-Gulf Bloc
The NIE report, in addition to being perceived as a significant Iranian victory, removed the threat of a U.S. military attack on Iran, giving rise to concerns in the Gulf that the report could herald a U.S.-Iranian understanding which would compromise the safety of the Gulf states.
Columnist Mazen Hammad wrote in the Qatari daily Al-Watan: "It is clear that there has been an unprecedented breakthrough in the relations between Iran and the Arab states... This breakthrough was made possible by the decrease of international pressure on Iran, which came after the NIE exonerated [Iran] of striving to develop nuclear weapons... Many think that this exoneration supplies the Gulf states and Egypt with the excuse they need in order to improve their relations with Teheran... The Gulf states would not have given Iran all this attention... had they not been convinced that these steps [i.e. the NIE report] were meant to prepare the ground for dialogue between Iran and the U.S." [25]
The deputy editor of the Bahraini daily Akhbar Al-Khaleej, Al-Sayyed Zahra, asked why the Gulf states had changed their attitude towards Iran when the latter had not changed its policies at all. He presented an analysis which suggested that the NIE report was one of the reasons for this development:
"What new development caused the change in Arab-Iranian relations? On what basis has it occurred?... As usual, the Arab governments are giving us, the Arab citizens, no explanations... Therefore, we have no option but to review the assessments of the various analysts and of others who are following this matter...
"After the publication of the report by the NIE report... the Arab states assessed that the time was ripe for greater rapprochement with Iran and for greater openness [towards it]... The Arab governments assessed that the publication of the [NIE] report might indicate a possible change in U.S. policy towards Iran, and this naturally led to greater openness towards this country on the part of the Arabs."
Zahra expressed a concern that future U.S.-Iran dialogue may come at the expense of the Gulf states' interests:
"We now see America wooing Iran and invoking the option of diplomatic dialogue [with it], and perhaps even more than that - an agreement that would resolve the crisis. What exactly is behind these [new] positions and moves? And what are the Arabs' interests in this [situation]?... Is it conceivable that, within a couple of days, Iran's position and role in Iraq has changed so radically? Is it conceivable that, within a couple of days, Iran has gone from being one of [the forces] that arm and support the militias [in Iraq] to being [a force] that restrains [these militias] and helps to stabilize the region? Of course it is inconceivable." [26]
Iran Celebrates Its Achievement
Iranian leaders boasted of recent steps taken by Iran to improve relations with the Gulf states, speaking of "a new age of cooperation" and of "a great leap" in Iran-Gulf relations. [27] President Ahmadinejad stated in a recent speech: "I hope that this new process [of Gulf-Iran rapprochement] will expand, benefiting the peoples of the region and keeping the enemies away from it... Iran has already announced that its participation in the GCC summit marks the dawning of a new age in inter-region relations..." [28]
Iranian officials stressed that Iran-Gulf rapprochement was a strategic goal of Iran's. Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammed Ali Hosseini stated in his weekly press briefing that cooperation with the Gulf states was a top priority in Iran's foreign policy, saying: "Stronger ties [between Iran and the Gulf states] spell more security, peace, stability and quiet for the Gulf states." [29] Supreme National Security Council Secretary Said Al-Jalili said during a visit of the 'Omani foreign minister to Iran that "a Gulf of friendship" was not just a slogan but an Iranian strategic outlook. [30]
The Iranian daily Kayhan, which is close to Iranian Supreme leader Ali Khamenei, stated in its December 4, 2007 editorial: "The invitation of Ahmadinejad to attend the GCC summit... as a special guest conveys two very important messages to the U.S. and the West. [Firstly, it indicates that] the isolation of Iran is impossible. Secondly, [it indicates that] America's effort to form a united Arab front against Iran has failed... Did the Annapolis circus [manage to] bring about Iran's isolation? Did the Arab states join America's coalition against Iran?... Ahmadinejad's participation in the Doha summit... was a clear sign that America's attempt to divide the countries of the region had failed. We cannot rule out [the possibility] that America will continue to make every effort to harm and isolate Iran, but it will never be able to prevent the emergence of Iran as a symbol of Muslim strength in the Middle East and the world. The path of hostility towards Iran is becoming narrower every day." [31]
Iranian sources also stated that Iran was emerging as a regional power, and was being recognized as such by its Sunni Arab neighbors. The head of the political bureau of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Yadallah Javani, wrote in the weekly Sobh-e Sadeq, the mouthpiece of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei circulated among the IRGC: "Iran's political handling of its nuclear [program] presents a new model of nuclear [progress] to the countries of the region. Some of the Arab countries in the Persian Gulf are officially announcing that they wish to use nuclear power... Iran [hereby] declares that it is willing to extend any kind of assistance in order to help in the advancement of the Muslim states, especially in the [Gulf] region... In these [new] circumstances, the summit of the GCC - founded 27 years ago with the aim of confronting Iran - feels that a productive relationship with Iran is the best way to safeguard the interests of its member-states, and to guarantee the strategic security of the Persian Gulf..."
"Iran's participation in the summit, for the first time in the history of the GCC, is a turning point in the [history of] the Persian Gulf... The repeated failures of America's Middle East policy have led the region to a new stage... An Islamic Middle East is becoming a reality. America's power in the region is fading... and the age of the American empire in the Middle East is ending. In parallel to these developments, Iran's power is growing... so that everyone [now] sees it as the leading power in the Middle East. Iran's entry into the nuclear club... changes the [power] balance in the Middle East..." [32]
*Y. Yehoshua is Director of Research at MEMRI; I. Rapoport and Y. Mansharof are research fellows at MEMRI; A. Savyon is Director of the Iranian Media Project; Y. Carmon is President of MEMRI
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
[1] Resentment towards Iran, especially over its "interference in Arab affairs," was expressed on several occasions by Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal. In a March 2007 interview with Newsweek, he reported that, during a meeting between the two, Saudi King 'Abdallah had bluntly said to President Ahmadinejad: "You are interfering in Arab affairs... Whether you deny it or nor, this is creating bad feelings for Iran and we think you should stop it." Al-Faisal added: "[Iran's] interference in Arab affairs is creating a backlash in the Arab world and in the Muslim world." Newsweek (U.S.), March 29, 2007.
[2] Articles in the Gulf press warned against the Iranian threat, and called on the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to form a united front against it. Saudi columnist Yousef Al-Kuwailit wrote in the daily Al-Riyadh: "Why aren't [the Gulf countries] taking any interest in establishing their own joint [military] force...? Have we forgotten how Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait? Have we forgotten the Persian shah's threats to invade Bahrain, and the reiteration of those same threats by a senior Iranian official just a few weeks ago? Have we forgotten the dispute between Iran and the UAE over the [three] islands? The [conflict] has not yet reached alarming proportions, but we must be careful..." Al-Riyadh (Saudi Arabia), November 1, 2007. For further details on the call to form a military alliance to repel the Iranian threat, see MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 1769, "Saudi Columnists Call on Gulf States to Form Anti-Iran Front,"November 20, 2007, http://memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Page=archives&Area=sd&ID=SP176907.
[3] Al-Majalla (Saudi Arabia), December 22, 2007.
[4] In a September 2007 meeting with Saudi King 'Abdallah bin 'Abd Al-'Aziz, Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Aal Thani promised to keep his country's mediation efforts - especially with regards to Palestine, Iraq and Lebanon - in line with understandings reached by the GCC and the Arab League. Al-Jarida (Kuwait), September 25, 2007.
[5] Alhomayed wrote that the invitation was a reward that Ahmadinejad did not deserve, and added: "Inviting someone like [former Iranian president Mohammad] Khatami would have been understandable, since he is one of those who call for dialogue and coexistence. Had they invited someone of [Expediency Council Chairman Ali Akbar] Hashemi RafsanjaniÕs caliber, we might have said that he is a pragmatic leader with whom a political agreement is possible. Ahmadinejad, however, is the opposite, and inviting him only [strengthens] him in Iran vis-ˆ-vis those who claim that he is placing his country at risk." Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), December 4, 2007.
[6] In an editorial in the UAE daily Al-Ittihad, Columnist Khaled Al-Dakhil wrote that a feeling is emerging in the Gulf that "the American umbrella of defense is not providing the necessary stability in the region, but has actually become a source of instability... There are signs indicating an expected change in the security strategy of the GCC states." Al-Ittihad (UAE), December 12, 2007.
Columnist Dr. 'Abdallah Al-Shaiji likewise described the Gulf states' concern over the inconsistency of U.S. policy, alongside their fears regarding Iran's intentions: "...We have the right to be concerned about [the possibility of a] war, and about [the possibility of an Iran-US.] agreement... We see Washington's oscillations [in its relations with] Tehran... first escalating the nuclear [crisis] and then withdrawing [from its position], warning about the nuclear threat in 2005 and then dismissing this threat, with great confidence, [in 2007]. [We saw America] wooing [Iran], warming its relations with it, and negotiating with it over Iraq. Then [we saw] the failure [of these negotiations] and their [subsequent] renewal... How long will we continue to be pawns and victims in the great chess game that Washington is playing in the Middle East with the last member of the 'Axis of Evil,' which will cease to be regarded [as such] after the U.S. signs an agreement with it...?" Al-Ittihad (UAE), December 17, 2007.
Saudi Columnist 'Adel Al-Tarifi called on the Gulf states not to be complacent about the NIE report, and to "reorganize, [step up] their security and economic cooperation, and exert heavy pressure on Iran..." in order to defuse the Iranian threat. Al-Riyadh (Saudi Arabia), December 19, 2007.
In contrast, others argued that there was no alternative to the alliance with the U.S. Kuwaiti MP Khudhayr Al-'Anzi said, "In light of the security situation, which is on the brink of explosion, and the talk about Iran's progress towards the attainment of nuclear weapons, the Gulf states cannot afford to abandon their security agreements with the U.S. For who would [then] protect our oil [wells]? Who would protect the Gulf economy?... Al-'Arabiya TV, December 4, 2007.
Qatari reformist 'Abd Al-Hamid Al-Ansari wrote in the Kuwaiti daily Al-Jarida: "The Gulf states are too sensible, wise, and intelligent to replace someone who has supported them, stood by their side in times of disaster, assisted them in liberating their lands and in delivering themselves from the evil neighbor, and supplied them with means of development and progress... with [Iran]. We must tell Iran clearly and without embellishments: Your nuclear plants are a threat to both us and yourselves, and there is no substitute for our Western and American ally." Al-Jarida (Kuwait), December 10, 2007.
[7] Al-Watan (Saudi Arabia), December 4, 2007.
[8] Al-Raya (Qatar), December 5, 2007.
[9] www.gulfinthemedia.com, December 9, 2007.
[10] Al-Siyassa (Kuwait), December 5, 2007. A Bahraini diplomat pointed out that, while the Iranians had described these meetings as "friendly," UAE sources had refrained from commenting on them, which was a sign of the Emirates' displeasure.
[11] www.elaph.com December 4, 2007.
[12] Al-Sharq (Qatar), December 4, 2007.
[13] Akhbar Al-Khaleej (Bahrain), December 27, 2007.
[14] IRNA (Iran), December 30, 2007.
[15] Bahrain News Agency, December 10, 2007.
[16] Al-Hayat (London), December 16, 2007.
[17] Al-Watan (Saudi Arabia), December 12, 2007.
[18] Kuwait News Agency (Kuwait), December 11, 2007.
[19] Al-Siyassa (Kuwait), December 5, 2007.
[20] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), December 4, 2007.
[21] Al-Arabiya TV, December 6, 2007.
[22] Al-Siyassa (Kuwait), December 5, 2007.
[23] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), December 5, 2007.
[24] Al-Siyassa (Kuwait), December 7, 2007.
[25] Al-Watan (Qatar), January 2, 2008.
[26] Akhbar Al-Khaleej (Bahrain), January 1, 2008.
[27] Fars (Iran), December 25, 2007.
[28] Kayhan (Iran), December 27, 2007.
[29] IRNA (Iran), December 31, 2007.
[30] IRNA (Iran), December 30, 2007.
[31] Kayhan (Iran), December 4, 2007.
[32] Sobh-e Sadeq (Iran), December 3, 2007.
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