BICOM ANALYSIS: THE SIGNIFICANCE OF PRESIDENT BUSH'S MIDDLE EAST TOUR

Jan. 7, 2008

In just 45 days between November 2007 and January 2008, President Bush will not only have played host at Annapolis to the Israeli and Palestinian leaderships but will have also enjoyed their hospitality over three days in Jerusalem and the West Bank.  In the interim, his Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has appointed a new Special Envoy for Middle East Security, General James Jones, to handle the complex security challenges of a durable Israeli-Palestinian agreement[i], and played a leading role in the international donors conference in Paris.[ii]  This series of diplomatic overtures represent the some of the most visible developments to have been advanced by George W. Bush's White House since he took office in January 2001, and are the source of a renewed public discourse about the fate of Israeli-Palestinian peace.  But to what extent will Bush's visit serve to follow up the modest achievements reached in Maryland, and just how significant is his imminent tour of the region for Israel at this juncture?

Seven years on...
George W. Bush entered the White House in 2001 after having witnessed his predecessor Bill Clinton's ultimate failure, for all his immense efforts, to broker a peace accord at Camp David, and in the midst of what had shortly thereafter degenerated into the Second Intifada.  U.S. policy remained markedly disengaged and remarkably haphazard in the face of violent and escalating daily conflict, which then-secretary of state Colin Powell maintained was essentially for the parties themselves to resolve.  9/11, which globalised the phenomenon of Islamist radicalism, followed by a strategic suicide bombing campaign in which a packed Tel Aviv bar and Jerusalem shopping mall were blown up, naturally forced the Bush administration to intensify its role.  Publication of the Quartet's Road Map in April 2003 notwithstanding, the White House soon despaired at Yasser Arafat's lack of genuine tenacity to counter Palestinian terror.  Not until after Arafat's death and Israel's subsequent unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in August 2005 did the U.S. gradually begin to re-establish a facilitating role in a peace dialogue between Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.[iii]

It might therefore be assumed that Bush's visit to Israel this week marks a screeching gear change in the final lap of a presidency in which his manoeuvring on Israel/Palestine has been conspicuously steered from the back seat throughout his two-term tenure.  Yet despite the tendency for White House incumbents to focus on foreign policy as they enter the lame-duck phase of their presidential tenure, Bush has not performed a bizarre policy u-turn after seven years of relative inertia.

Just as broader strategic considerations led to previous attempts to engage the Palestinian-Israeli situation, this is equally the case with the forthcoming nine-day visit, the bulk of which, notably, will be spent bolstering U.S. allies in Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.[iv]  A 'spontaneous' call on Iraq would also not be a huge surprise.

Iran will dominate the agenda
Whilst Baghdad's future will be discussed across the region, the primary issue on the table - both in the Gulf and Israel - is Iran.[v]  The U.S. president will be warmly received by the Arab oil emirates who are concerned about Iran's increasing regional influence and muscle-flexing.  Israel is keen to undo damage done by the November 2007 U.S. National Intelligence Estimate, which, though its findings were initially misinterpreted by many, worryingly confirms that Iran is trying to master the nuclear enrichment process, at a level beyond that which would be necessary for producing electricity.  Israel simply cannot afford to allow policy to wither on a matter of an existential threat.  As a danger to global stability, sustained diplomatic isolation of Iran in spite of damage caused by the NIE report is a shared objective both of Israel and the White House.

As such, President Bush will be using his visit to reiterate his concerns about Iranian intentions and to set minds at rest that U.S. policy towards Tehran will remain unchanged so long as Iran continues to enrich uranium.  Furthermore, shoring up regional support in the Arab world, in order to be properly prepared for a potential future showdown with Iran if it fails to accede to UN demands, is at the heart of Bush's mission.[vi]

Annapolis as catalyst, but the schism persists
In addition to tackling Iran, Bush, flanked by Condoleezza Rice and National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley, will attempt to provide momentum for the Joint Understanding to which Israel and the Palestinians subscribed at Annapolis, which provided for the launching of immediate negotiations in an effort to conclude a two-state peace agreement before the end of 2008.[vii]  In that light, it is hoped that a visit from the world's most powerful leader will help reinvigorate bilateral talks.

No real bilateral developments have occurred since Annapolis.  That no trilateral meeting is scheduled between Bush, Olmert and Abbas implies that the Americans are not going to be rolling up their sleeves to get bogged down in arbitration on borders or refugees.[viii]  Nonetheless, isolated Hamas officials in Gaza are mistaken to dismiss the visit as nothing more than a "photo opportunity."[ix]  Air Force One's arrival will shine the international media spotlight on peace talks once again, and President Bush will try to generate momentum through his words of support and show of solidarity with Olmert and Abbas.

This impetus is required.  Whilst a stagnant month is immaterial in the trajectory of this perennial conflict, it is less inconsequential in the scheme of the current talks, whose shelf life effectively expires when Bush vacates the Oval Office.[x]  Moreover, events on the ground, which the parties are trying to traverse without being overshadowed by them, have - perhaps inevitably - frustrated substantive progress.

The spanners being thrown in the works are not unfamiliar.  The "Har Homa crisis"[xi] sparked by plans to build new housing in the East Jerusalem neighbourhood has enabled the Palestinians to generate pressure on Olmert concerning Israeli settlements beyond the Green Line.  It also led President Bush to admit last week that settlement expansion is an "impediment" to the success of the revived peace efforts.[xii]  On the other hand, PA Prime Minister Salam Fayyad's own admission that Palestinian security forces are incapable at present of providing a viable security partnership is consistent with senior Israeli military analysis which contends that only due to the IDF's presence has the West Bank not fallen, like Gaza, into Hamas control.[xiii]  The shooting of two off-duty Israeli soldiers by members of the PA security forces last week has underscored that failure.[xiv]

The expansion of Jewish settlements is conveyed as being as rudimentary a problem to the Palestinians as are security concerns to the Israelis, although it is no secret that a future final status accord will likely incorporate some of the larger settlement blocs within Israel in exchange for other territory.  President Bush also alluded to the April 2004 communiqué he sent to former prime minister Ariel Sharon, stating that the reality on the ground will influence the determining of final borders.[xv]  Analysts are suggesting that during Bush's visit, Olmert may commit to more stringent supervision of construction within the Palestinian territories in exchange for recognition by the U.S. of Israel's security demands, which include freedom of military action in the West Bank during negotiations and security oversight of a future Palestinian state, including airspace and at borders.[xvi]

Peace and stability in the region
The third significant area in which Bush's efforts will be concentrated throughout his tour will be in maximising whatever broader regional support and stability can be extrapolated from Annapolis.[xvii]

In his meetings in the Gulf and in Sharm el-Sheikh, the U.S. will seek to harness a deeper, regional commitment to Tony Blair's project of strengthening Palestinian institutions that will provide economic and political security to a future Palestinian state.  Bush is set to accompany Blair on a tour of the initiatives he is heading up in the West Bank.  Arab support for the economic and political tracks of Israel-Palestinian negotiations, and for relations between Israel and the Arab world at large, will therefore also figure on the president's to-do list.[xviii]

Tick tock, tick tock...

For Prime Minister Olmert, the Bush visit is seen as a timely prelude to the release of the Winograd Committee's final report on the Second Lebanon War, which is expected to cast doubts over his leadership acumen.[xix]  The Israeli premier has weathered the storm since the war's end, in part due to subsequent diplomatic progress vis-à-vis the Palestinians.[xx]  He recognises that the two-state solution represents the only viable formula for peace, but political pressure within his governing coalition will intensify as he attempts to dismantle illegal outposts and halt settlement growth in the coming months.[xxi]  Meanwhile, the Palestinian security forces will have to become more effective if Olmert is to have a chance of success.  But undoubtedly, the American president's presence and all international support for his diplomatic endeavours are being warmly received in Jerusalem.

Such a lightning visit cannot possibly overcome the challenges that lie ahead for Israelis and Palestinians to resolve following Bush's departure.  Simply, elbow grease and determination will be required of the two parties.  As Israel's strongest ally, it is thought that any of the prospective candidates to supersede Bush will mediate if required.  Yet this president is mindful of his own clock ticking.  If a framework agreement on permanent status issues which is ultimately implemented after his departure from the Oval Office can at least be drawn up by the end of the year, George W. Bush would earn a place in Middle East history not only for the Iraq war but also for his part in orchestrating enduring political conciliation that was initiated on his watch.

 

[i] 'Announcement of General James Jones as Special Envoy for Middle East Security', Secretary Condoleezza Rice, U.S. Department of State, 28 November 2007.

[ii] 'Remarks at the Palestinian Donors Conference', Secretary Condoleezza Rice, U.S. Department of State, 17 December 2007.

[iii] Freedman, R. O. (2005), 'The Bush Administration and the Arab-Israeli Conflict: The Record of its First Four Years', The Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 9: 1 (4), Gloria Centre: IDC, Herzliya.

[iv] 'Israel, PA to form special committee to tackle core issues', Barak Ravid, Haaretz, 6 January 2008.

[v] 'Bush to propose ME plan to combat Iran', Mark Weiss, The Jerusalem Post/AP, 6 January 2008.

[vi] 'Bush: Take down the outposts', Jerusalem Post, 3 January 2008.

[vii] 'Bush to make first presidential visit to Israel', Ewen McAskill, The Guardian, 20 December 2007.

[viii] 'A friend to Olmert indeed', Aluf Benn, Haaretz, 6 January 2008.

[ix] 'Hamas dismisses Bush Mideast visit as "photo op"', Reuters, 5 January 2008.

[x] 'Editor's Notes: The asymmetry confronting Bush', David Horovitz, The Jerusalem Post, 3 January 2008; 'Meetings of the minds', Aluf Benn and Shmuel Rosner, Haaretz, 4 January 2008.

[xi] 'The Har Homa test', Akiva Eldar, Haaretz, undated.

[xii] 'Bush: Expansion of settlements hindering peace talks', YNet News, 4 January 2008.

[xiii] 'Editor's Notes: The asymmetry confronting Bush', David Horovitz, The Jerusalem Post, 3 January 2008.

[xiv] 'Israeli soldiers slain hiking in West Bank', Ken Ellingwood, Baltimore Sun, 29 December 2007; 'Hikers killed in West Bank shooting were soldiers on leave', Efrat Weiss, YNet News, 28 December 2007.

[xv] 'President W. Bush's letter to PM, Ariel Sharon', Israel Prime Minister's Office, 14 April 2004.

[xvi] 'Israel Seeks Understanding With Bush Over Its Security', Mohammed Mar'i, Arab News, 4 January 2008.

[xvii] 'Bush: Expansion of settlements hindering peace talks', YNet News, 4 January 2008.

[xviii] 'Meetings of the minds', Aluf Benn and Shmuel Rosner, Haaretz, 4 January 2008.

[xix] 'Analysis: Saving himself, and Olmert?', Herb Keinon, The Jerusalem Post, 3 January 2008.

[xx] 'Analysis: Saving himself, and Olmert?', Herb Keinon, The Jerusalem Post, 3 January 2008.

[xxi] 'Now's not the time', Aluf Benn, Haaretz, 3 January 2008; 'The cupboard is bare', Yoel Marcus, Haaretz, 4 January 2008; 'Lieberman threatens to leave gov't if core issues discussed', The Jerusalem Post, 6 January 2008; 'Israel offers settlement concessions ahead of Bush visit: report', Yahoo News, 28 December 2008; 'Nudged by Bush, Israel Talks of Removing Illegal Outposts', Steven Erlanger, The New York Times, 5 January 2008; 'Prime Minister to promise Bush: We'll deal with W. Bank outposts', Barak Ravid and Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz, 7 January 2008.

 

 

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