Demographic Optimism

by Robert Sklar

We keep hearing that Jews are doomed to become a minority west of the Jordan River and must give up land to secure their numbers in the Middle East.

A Jewish demography expert says otherwise.

“Contrary to demographic projections, the first half of 2010 sustains the growth of the Jewish fertility rate and the sharp and rapid fall of the
Arab fertility rate throughout the Muslim world as well as west of the Jordan River,” says Yoram Ettinger, one of Israel’s top analysts of Jewish-Palestinian demographics.

Demographic precedents assert only a slight probability of resurrecting high birth rates after a prolonged period of significant reduction, according to Ettinger. That means the fear of Israeli Jews being overrun by Arabs in the region may be exaggerated.

Ettinger is special projects chairman at the Ariel Center for Policy Research in Shaarel Tikva and a consultant to members of Israel’s cabinet and Knesset. In a position paper issued Aug.12, Ettinger refutes the demographic fatalism relating to Eretz Yisrael, the historic Land of Israel. Once again, he points to Arab population misrepresentations rooted in political gain. At the same time, he paints a positive picture of growth in the Jewish population.

Ettinger’s compelling conclusion: Israel stands to remain a Jewish state. The Jerusalem-based demographer is no amateur. He’s the former congressional affairs minister at the Israel Embassy in Washington. He briefs U.S. lawmakers and their staffs on Israel, terrorism and other issues of bilateral concern. And he’s an authority on overseas investments in Israel’s high-tech industry.

By The Numbers

The State of Israel is home to 7.5 million people; 79.8 percent are Jews or affiliates (olim yet to recognized as Halachic Jews by the Chief Rabbinate), 16.9 percent Muslim Arabs, 1.7 percent Christian Arabs and 1.6 percent Druz.

Ettinger’s findings are telling, beginning with the surge in the Israeli Jewish birth rate and the decline in birth rates in the Third World in general and in Muslim countries in particular.

Today, there is a 66-percent Jewish majority in 98.5 percent of the area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea (excluding Gaza); there’s a 58-percent Jewish majority in the region if Gaza is included.

“That Jewish majority,” says Ettinger, “benefits from a demographic tailwind and from a high potential of aliyah and of returning Israeli expatriates.”

A Closer Look

Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics reveals that the annual number of Jewish births has climbed more than 40 percent since 1995 thanks to more women of childbearing age, especially in the secular Jewish community. In comparison, the Arab birth rate inside the Green Line has stabilized over the same period.

Ettinger picks apart Palestinian population numbers. He says Arabs in the West Bank (Judea and Samaria) total 1.6 million — 900,000 fewer than the Palestinian Authority claims. Further, a World Bank study documents a 32-percent inflation in Palestinian birth numbers.

Framing that Palestinian ruse, Ettinger says: “What if the contended Palestinian numbers require a population growth rate almost double the highest population growth rate in the
world, while Gaza and Judea-Samaria are ranked fifth and 38th in global population growth rate?”

The obvious follow-up: What prompted the decline in Palestinian births? The answer? Accelerated urbanization and a Western influence, such as a focus on education, better
healthcare, more jobs, more women in the workforce, improved family planning and lower teen pregnancy.

Domestic security concerns have slowed births in some Muslim lands, such as Iran.

From 80,400 births in 1995, the number of Jewish births rose by 50 percent to 121,000 in 2009. The annual number of Arab births inside the Green Line, meanwhile, has stuck to about 39,000 because of Arab integration into Israeli society.

“The fertility gap between Arabs (3.5 births per woman and trending downward) and Jews (2.9 and trending upward) was reduced from six births per woman in 1969 to 0.6 in 2009,” Ettinger says.

Erosion in the Arab birth rate is 20 years faster than projections made by Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics.

Looking Ahead

In the past, aliyah fueled Israel’s population spurts thanks especially to waves of Russian olim (immigrants). Today, there’s real potential for another wave of aliyah as well as more expatriates given the global backdrop of economic uncertainty and spreading anti-Semitism.

Ettinger wonders if the Israeli government will push aliyah in places with high and mobile Jewish populations, such as the former Soviet Union, France, Great Britain, Argentina and yes, America. He sees aliyah as a cornerstone of sustaining the Jewish majority and thus Israel’s national security and economy.

Ettinger is a member of the American-Israel Demographic Research Group; its 2008 study is the basis for his 2010 report.

Ettinger’s relentless pursuit of Middle East demographic reality certainly bursts the bubble of misconceptions relating to Arabs becoming a dominant force in the State of Israel.

Still, when it takes non-official research to reveal actual population patterns within Eretz Yisrael, world Jewry must speak up and demand tighter accountability in the all-important search for demographic truth in a region so critical to the Jewish people.


Robert Sklar
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.