by Barry Rubin
I’m surprised that the following
coincidence was not connected to Purim. Once again an Iranian tyrant is
threatening countries in the region, and it isn’t just Jews that are
worried. In an absolutely remarkable historical event, President Shimon
Peres delivered a speech to 29 representatives from Arab and Islamic
states via satellite. Do not kid yourself; this would not have happened
if the Egyptians, Saudis, and others hadn’t thought that the U.S. had sold out the Sunni Arabs.
“Everybody understood that this was
something historic: the president of the Jewish state sitting in his
office in Jerusalem with an Israeli flag and the foreign ministers
sitting in the Persian Gulf discussing security, the war on terror and
peace,” said one of the Arab organizing officials.
There are three themes to Peres’
speech. The threat of Iranian nuclear weapons on all the region’s
nations, the dangers of radical Islamism, and the usefulness of making
peace with Israel (of course he would talk about peace with Israel, but
notice that this is not within the context of the Iranian threat).
Another easy thing to miss is that simultaneously, the Israeli
government said it would provide further details of how close Iran is to
obtaining nuclear weapons. Another point that might be missed is the
implication that Israel will share nuclear intelligence with other
Arab-Muslim nations.
At a meeting between an Israeli
ambassador and a very high-ranking Saudi official, the latter said,
“Jerusalem must be liberated and Palestine must be an independent
country. Okay, that’s out of the way, now let’s talk about everything
else.”
The Arab-Turkish cooperation forum is
still stalled. When Erdogan became prime minister, Turkey had good
relations with Israel against the Arab states. Yet Erdogan is a Sunni
Islamist supporting revolutionary Islamist groups, including the Muslim
Brotherhood and Salafists. Because of this, he switched from relative
support for Israel to support for revolutionary Islamists. But note the
cost: This month a parliamentary candidate is openly running in a
Marxist-Kurdish party. And in fact, the Kurdish Worker’s Party has been
strengthened, especially in Syria.
There is, however, something more
here, and believe it that the Saudis will listen and hear that the bill
has been presented and Turkey expects to pay. At the same time, the
Turkish ambassador has been expelled from Egypt, and Gulf Arabs are
increasingly worried about continued Turkish support for the Syrian
insurgency. In other words, Israel may claim the new Middle East
politics better than Iran and even better than the United States.
Obviously, Israel and Saudi Arabia are not going to carry out a joint
attack on Iran or take any other drastic measures. Yet this may lead to
other positive developments. Just don’t forget the old pattern. In a
television broadcast, a senior Kuwaiti mullah said:
“Oh servants of Allah, how saddening
and very painful it is to see many Muslim youths glued to TV screens at
cafes or at home, passionately watching entertainment shows, like the
football World Cup, in despicable subjugation to the abominations of the
other nations–as if we were not a nation with a brilliant history and a
lofty civilization…The Jews were successful in preoccupying the Muslim
youth–except those protected by Allah–with the most inane matters,
distracting them from important things…” –Shaykh Abd al-Muhsin
al-Mutairi
None of this has changed the politics.
It is for Arab public consumption. It would be too hazardous for an
Arab government to accept Israel’s nationhood.
Finally, note that since Egypt is
angry with Hamas–and Egypt and Israel are keeping peace in the
Sinai–Hamas has more limited wartime capabilities. And Hizballah–because
of its participation in the Syrian civil war–wants to avoid armed
conflict with Israel. This situation seems to be the best that can be
achieved in the region.
Barry Rubin
Source: http://www.gloria-center.org/2013/12/are-sunni-arabs-more-afraid-of-israel-than-iran/
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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