by MEMRI
 M. J. Akbar is a veteran editor and columnist
Following the Geneva agreement, signed by Iran
and the 5+1 group led by the U.S. on November 24, 2013, veteran Indian
editor and columnist M. J. Akbar authored a column analyzing the likely
consequences of the nuclear deal for regional players, including
Pakistan, Russia, China, India and countries in the Middle East such as
Saudi Arabia and Israel.
The column, titled "U.S.-Iran nuclear deal is
good news for India", was published by The Times of India newspaper and
widely quoted on social media. M. J. Akbar is author of several books on
Islam and Pakistan, and is known for launching and editing several
newspapers in India.
While noting positive implications of the Iran
deal for several countries including India, Akbar also warned: "America
and its West Europe allies cannot afford to fail in a process that they
started with eyes wide open. If Barack Obama, undermined by the U.S.
Congress, falters, America risks damage to an alliance over Iran
sanctions it has fostered with much effort."
Following are excerpts from Akbar's article:
"This Geneva Deal Is Extremely
Good News – For India; It Eases, And Could Over Time Even Eliminate,
America's Dependence On Pakistani Space In Its Crucial Battles With
Taliban And Its Myriad Terrorist Associates"
"The sequence is established. You first
release the genie, we are reliably informed by Middle East folklore, and
then it grants your three wishes.
"America has set free a genie called Iran from
three decades of isolation within the world's most congested conflict
zone. Over the next six months we shall find out whether Iran will grant
America's three wishes, or actually one wish written in three codes:
forget the bomb. The one thing a genie will not do, however, is return
to the bottle which was its prison. Whether Iran's nuclear ambitions get
punctured, or deposited into some storehouse of mind and memory for
revival at some later date, the Geneva deal between America, five other
major powers and Iran has already begun to redraw the strategic map of
the region and beyond.
"This Geneva deal is extremely good news – for
India. It eases, and could over time even eliminate, America's
dependence on Pakistani space in its crucial battles with Taliban and
its myriad terrorist associates. It cannot be a coincidence that the
historic agreement came on the eve of America's withdrawal from
Afghanistan. America is trying hard to establish distance between
retreat and defeat. It knows that the war against Taliban must continue;
and its generals are now convinced that Pakistan's army is a dubious,
if not duplicitous, ally against extremist Islamist militants driven by a
frenzied conviction that they can recreate Sunni empires of the seventh
century. There are no on-the-record statements yet, but the obvious
does not need advertising. Iran is potentially a more reliable ally than
Pakistan in this conflict, since the Sunni jihadists hate Shias as
apostates. Witness the recurrent anti-Shia violence in Pakistan.
"For four decades Pakistan, with subdued but
compliant American acquiescence, has ring-fenced India out of a region
vital to India's security interests. For the region, 2014 marks not the
end of war, but the beginning of a variation on an old conflict. There
is already talk in Taliban and terrorist circles of a plan to flood
Kashmir with fighters on a scale comparable to 1947, with the Pakistan
army providing safe passage for this offensive."
"Israel and Saudi Arabia... Are
Leading The Challenge Against Any Final Agreement [With Iran]; The Saudi
Angst Is Ideological (In Islamic Terms), Geopolitical And Visceral...
It Cannot Forget Iran's Challenge To The Saudi Monarch's Prestige As
Custodian Of The Holy Cities Of Mecca And Medina"
"The jihadi narrative is resurgent. It can claim to
have driven out both the superpowers of the 20th century from
Afghanistan, the Soviet Union first and NATO next. Pride is contagious.
There will be an influx of fresh recruits. But India is not the only
target of 'liberation' from 'infidel occupation.' China's only
Muslim-majority province, Sinkiang, is also within their assault zone.
China is not oblivious to this danger. And Russia is worried about the
consequences for Muslim regions of Central Asia, including its own
border territories. Russia, China and India will need Iran as much as
Iran needs them; all three have kept their relations with Tehran alive
through years of sanctions.
"The strategic advantage, therefore, could shift
slowly, imperceptibly, to Iran as negotiations begin to turn the Geneva
deal into a pact. America and its West Europe allies cannot afford to
fail in a process that they started with eyes wide open. If Barack
Obama, undermined by the U.S. Congress, falters, America risks damage to
an alliance over Iran sanctions it has fostered with much effort.
Russia, China and India will not feel any great need to cater to the
demands of American politicians influenced by parish compulsions in
voting districts. Sanctions cannot be effective without multilateral
unity. The four big purchasers of Iranian oil – China, South Korea,
Japan and India – were required to curtail their imports further this
year. This has already become irrelevant. But if what is perceived as a
quibble by the international community prevents the logical culmination
towards a final pact, these countries could place their national needs
above international commitments.
"Israel and Saudi Arabia, as odd a couple as there
could be conceived, are leading the challenge against any final
agreement. The Saudi angst is ideological (in Islamic terms),
geopolitical and visceral. Apart from schismatic fervor, it cannot
forget Iran's challenge to the Saudi monarch's prestige as custodian of
the holy cities of Mecca and Medina. Riyadh has also invested heavily in
a Pakistan-Talib Afghanistan-Gulf-Saudi bulwark against the Shia line
from Herat to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel, under Benjamin Netanyahu,
has propagated an existential fear of the future, with Iran as the
epicenter of such dread. But Obama has flexibility. Washington is no
longer dependent on Saudi oil, and American public opinion, tired of
multiple confrontations, is in favor of rapprochement with Tehran. The
coming year could become a swivel moment in history.
"Barack Obama rubbed the lamp; he must now ensure
the genie grants his wish. A genie in the sky can be a dream come true,
or a nightmare."
Source: http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com (India), December 1, 2013. The original English of the article has been mildly edited for clarity and standardization.
|
MEMRI
Source: http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/7636.htm
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
No comments:
Post a Comment