by Boaz Bismuth
This week, the interim
deal signed last November with Iran will go into effect. Inspectors from
the International Atomic Energy Agency landed in Tehran on Saturday to
ensure that Iran has ceased enriching uranium to levels of 20 percent,
as per their obligation according to the agreement.
We can assume that the
Iranians will fulfill their end: Why would they complicate matters for
themselves by torpedoing a deal that is so favorable to them? They
struck a deal that allows them to continue nuclear research (the interim
deal does not prohibit them from developing advanced centrifuges);
lifts a portion of the economic sanctions, which will prevent the
collapse of the country's economy (which could incite the street and
destabilize the regime); and also provides immunity from any type of
military option, because U.S. President Barack Obama feels like talking.
With Iran. …
At least 59 senators,
among them 16 Democrats, are convinced that the deal will help Iran
become the nuclear power it intends to be. They don't trust the
administration. They don't believe in the interim deal or a final deal,
which will be signed -- if at all -- in about six months.
Iran, suffice it to
say, will continue to "play for time." The Obama administration, as
revealed in the new book by former U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates,
does not believe in the military option. The Iranians realized this a
long time ago. Iran can also allow itself a bit of leeway with the West.
For example, if they decide to act offended and derail the talks, they
still won't be too worried: The Americans will make sure to sit them
back down at the table.
The main problem with
Iran, from the American's perspective today, is that there are two bad
options: A military strike is a bad option. However, a nuclear Iran is
no better. What then, can be done? You sign an interim deal and hope for
the best.
Obama's foreign policy
up to this point in the Middle East -- in Egypt, Syria and Libya -- has
not helped reassure the 59 senators who are skeptical about the
negotiations with Iran. They are expressing the view of many in Israel
and in the Persian Gulf.
In the meantime, if nothing
changes, the White House will continue hoping for the best and Congress
will continue expecting the worst.
Boaz Bismuth
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=7073
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
No comments:
Post a Comment