by Yoav Limor
The escalation noted
over the past few weeks in southern Israel has been riddled with
paradoxes. On Sunday, Israel added one more to the mix, intentionally
increasing the use of firepower in the hopes of quelling tensions.
The conscious decision
to carry out a targeted assassination against an Islamic Jihad operative
could have agitated the already volatile situation in Gaza Strip even
further, but it was actually meant to achieve the opposite.
The hit was Israel's
way of informing Hamas that it is perfectly willing to "go crazy" and
initiate an escalation. In other words, Israel has made it clear to
Hamas that if the south heads for yet another round of fighting,
Jerusalem -- not Gaza -- will call the shots.
For now, it seems Gaza
got the message, especially since it was followed by a series of stern
warnings that were passed to Hamas by Israel through Egypt -- and also
by Egypt itself -- saying that the sharp increase in rocket fire was
unacceptable.
Another aspect of the
paradoxes seen in Gaza is that the latest bout of rocket fire was
executed as part of an internal struggle between Hamas and the Islamic
Jihad -- they lock horns and Israel comes under fire.
And speaking of
paradoxes, the escalation in rocket fire coincides with Israel's
decision to increase the humanitarian aid transferred to Gaza Strip on a
daily basis. With Egypt placing Hamas' rule under siege by cracking
down on its Sinai-based smuggling enterprise, Israel has become Gaza's
only lifeline -- as well as its punching bag.
Defense officials have
expressed concern that even if the current escalation in southern Israel
wanes, the overall trend is very disconcerting.
For now, Hamas is
adamantly avoiding confrontation with Israel, mainly over its own
strategic distress and ongoing armament efforts. The fact that Hamas'
grip on power is slipping does not bode well, as it finds it
increasingly difficult to control the smaller Gaza-based terror groups,
let alone rein in the Islamic Jihad, which is under growing pressure by
Iran to carry out terror attacks.
Israel has no interest
in further escalation, not only because it would prefer to avoid the
complexities of the Gaza quagmire, but because it fears that a military
campaign might actually reinforce Hamas and help it re-establish its
relationships with Egypt and the Palestinian Authority.
To sidestep this quicksand, the
military is currently trying to maintain deterrence and ensure that
Gaza's rulers understand the potential cost of a serious security
escalation -- that is what the weekend strikes on terror cells in Gaza
and Sunday's hit were really about.
Yoav Limor
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=7079
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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